Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

In 2021, Xiaopeng, Weilai and ideal separated from the top three newly built cars, with sales ranging from 90,000 to 100000. Nezha, Weimar and Zero lead the second echelon, and the sales of Nashi with the best results are also less than 70,000. Wei Xiaoli's site looks extremely solid.

There was a sudden change in 2022.

In the first 11 months of this year, Nezha accumulated sales of 140000 + and ideal cumulative sales of 110000 +, ranking firmly in the top 2 of new car construction. The cumulative sales of Xiaopeng, Weilai and Zero are 100000 +, ranking 3rd to 5th respectively. Needless to say, the rising momentum of zero running is also eye-catching, with sales only lagging behind Xiaopeng and Weilai thousands of units in the first 11 months.

In addition to Nezha and Zero, there are two other atypical new forces rising rapidly. Polar krypton from Geely has exceeded 10,000 for two months in a row, and its sales all come from 001 one product; the world has dropped in November, with sales of 8,000 +, but it has exceeded 10,000 for three consecutive months, with cumulative sales of 65000 + in the first 11 months, plus relying on Huawei. The momentum of the outbreak is extremely eye-catching.

The sudden rise of waist power, the change of new cars into the sky?

Trap: the rise of waist power in the largest market is very obvious. The dumbbell price structure-Nezha and Zero both focus on markets below 100000; the boundary and polar krypton both focus on markets ranging from 250000 to 350000.

The Nashi V is the core model of Nezha, with an official guidance price of 7.99-123800, and the zero-running core model is T03, with a price of 7.95-96500. The starting prices of the two models are 250000 and 300000 respectively, and the starting price of polar krypton 001 is 300000. Is to hit the two markets of low price and luxury. Both are the main markets for EV models, and the surge in oil prices this year has added a huge boost to sales of EV models.

The rise of these four waist forces, not only in the impact of Wei Xiaoli's dominant position, a more profound significance is that they more clearly depict the new car "from 0 to 1" price path. It can even be said that the site of newly built cars at this stage has been directly delineated.

In retrospect, the formation of Wei Xiaoli is not synchronous. ES8, the first model of Weilai, and ONE, the first model of ideal, were recognized by the market soon after they were put on the market, and sales increased steadily, gradually consolidating the brand position. And Xiaopeng, the first model G03 sales have been lukewarm, until the P7 on the market, directly a popular style, "Wei Xiaoli" pattern was announced.

Less than three months after the launch of the Xiaopeng P7, BYD launched a new car with a very similar positioning, boosting the momentum of the brand until it became the devil of the year. That model is Han. P7 hit 250000 to 300000, Han hit 200000 to 300000, moving is the luxury brand entry market cheese.

Affected by the rise of waist power is Xiaopeng and Weima, Xiaopeng was eaten a lot of incremental space, Weima was simply eaten the original share.

The problems Xiaopeng encountered this year all happened after Xiaopeng P5 went public last year. Xiaopeng has high hopes for this model, resources are all tilted to it, NGP promotional videos are about it as the protagonist, obviously to make it the most popular style. But it didn't work out. Weima, which is in trouble, has not been able to produce a popular style until this year, the share of the whole series of models has been poached by the waist force.

The price of the Xiaopeng P5 is 17.99-225900, and the official guidance price of EX5, the main model sold since the birth of Weima, is 16.08-179800 yuan, all in the 150000-200000 market (Weimar E.5 is also located in this price market). They came to this huge market with ambition, competing with Volkswagen and Toyota's A + Class, B Class and Compact SUV.

150000 to 200000, if you add in the 100000 to 150000 of Carola, Lang Yi and Civic, it can be said that the whole 100000 to 200000, this is the largest level in the entire auto market. But within this price range, the main theme of consumption is the extreme brand dependence, leather and durability, and the brand effect of Volkswagen and Toyota is so strong that it is extremely difficult for outsiders to get their hands on. If a new car comes in, it will be taught to be a man.

Of the top 10 models sold last year, seven came from this price. Even if the price of Tesla fell again and again, it had not gone against Volkswagen and Toyota directly. To cite another comparison of mobile phones that car insiders hate most, when iPhone parachuted into the mobile phone market, it did not hit the largest market of 1000 yuan to 3000 yuan, which is the core market of Nokia, Motorola and Sony Ericsson, and the price of the iPhone 4 is slightly higher than that of Nokia's "machine king" products.

In fact, it is just the well-known truth that comes from Kevin Kelly and has long been spread over and over again: opportunities often come from the edge.

New car: don't worry, don't compete with the rising waist power-Nezha and Zero run-are running into the same problem as their predecessors.

Nashi has grown continuously for half a year since May, reaching a high of 18000 in September and October, and suddenly showed a month-on-month decline in November, with monthly sales of 15000. Because something happened that month, the new car started to be delivered.

Zero sales exceeded 10,000 for five consecutive months from May to September. T03 steadily contributed 6000 sales per month. After September, zero-running sales declined, and October sales of 7000 and November sales of 8000 T03 also fell to 3500. Because something happened at the end of September, the new car C01 began to be delivered.

New cars don't always bring increments, and it's not just that new cars have limited production capacity. The real core problem is to give the popular style enough time to ferment, let it fly for a while, fly for a while, release its full potential and become a popular style in the popular style.

Tesla SEXY series will be delivered in 2012, 2015, 2017 and 2020 respectively. As native cars, Model S and Model 3 have 3 years to fully ferment, and Model X as a derivative SUV has 2 years to play. Ideal ONE began delivery in December 2019, and the replacement model L8 began to be delivered in November this year. It took three years to develop the first popular style in the new car-building era.

In the start-up stage, it is necessary to give the product more time to solo.

For many years, Apple had only one iPhone every year, which is admittedly not an easy task. If there is no new car for two or three years in a row, how to communicate with the market and maintain full activity to form the brand potential energy? what is more difficult is how to explain to investors during this period when there is no new car, "what has the money done, what has the team done?" are all the new cars idle? " -- this is what capital really is-- so products must be fully competitive and can be exchanged for market attention with market results.

The launch strategy of new cars is also important. Do right, the brand enters the second upward momentum, the potential energy jumps up; wrong, the brand falls into a dilemma, even a dangerous situation. Nezhu S and zero run C01 may be too radical, the current main models are still playing 100000 market, suddenly entered the price of 200000 to above, of course, market recognition will not be formed soon. Low-priced brands rush higher, high-priced brands sink, this seemingly logical new product strategy is not necessarily the best.

Classic cases are still ideal, and after ONE's success, it seems natural to expand downwards into a larger market, but instead, they launched a higher-level L9, which is also on the scale of ten thousand vehicles. L9 looks like a brand upgrade, but in fact, the brand continues to cultivate large-size nanny SUV, and the price is 100000 higher, but in fact, product positioning and development thinking are the same, belonging to the category of conforming to the trend.

What is more worth exploring is that Weimar was originally in the 150000-200000 market and had no chance to be besieged and suppressed by traditional giants, but the new car W6, which launched last year, has avoided this practice field and focused on the 200000-250000 market, but it still has no results. The reason is also very simple. Weima's brand momentum at that time was downward, and there was no halo of new cars built by stars like Xiaopeng, so a better way might be to seek a breakthrough in a 100,000-class other model.

In a classic case, Zero entered the market through S01, focusing on 120000 to 150000 markets, failed miserably, turned around to develop T03 to find 80,000 to 100000 markets, and turned around.

The unsuccessful conclusion of S01: through the wall, who passes through the wall, no matter up or down, now the core question of new cars is: who will capture the largest market in 100000 to 200000. Only then will EV be able to complete the final critical break and move towards becoming a mainstream product.

From this point of view, the rashness of Xiaopeng and Weimar is no longer just reckless and meaningless, but a brave move with pioneering spirit.

At present, it seems that in order to break through this step, there are at least two core user pain points to be solved: one is the charging experience, charging should be faster and more convenient, the battery life should be longer, and fast charging, private piling and battery technology are the key; second, as the reliability of the new brand, the product should be able to withstand the test, which requires reliable products for new cars and longer time to build brand trust.

Where is the threshold and how to judge it? What is needed is not only judgment, but also the courage to take the lead, and even the courage to break through the pattern.

Could it be Tesla? Do not rule out another possibility, such as the mobile phone market, the emergence of iPhone has greatly changed the market structure, the price of 5000 yuan to 10000 yuan has also been developed into an important mainstream market. So, it may be possible to develop the 200000-300000 market into a mainstream market comparable to 100000-200000 together with Tesla?

It should not be ignored that iPhone 4 was born in 2010, the whole world is in a peaceful and prosperous development path, and this product is involved in promoting the mobile Internet boom that has continued for many years since then. But today's world is no longer like that, and it is unclear whether these newly built cars will have the revolutionary influence of iPhone.

Under such circumstances, it is not the work of a gentleman to explore raising the price of the mainstream car market by 100000.

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: autocarweekly (ID:autocarweekly), article: plums from West Asia

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