Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

The year 2022 of new energy vehicles is a year of mixed joys and sorrows. On the industrial side, most enterprises in the industrial chain have created the best results in history, while on the capital side, the industrial chain of new energy vehicles has ushered in the worst performance in the past three years.

Since the beginning of December, there has been a lot of news about the new energy vehicle capital and the industry. in the new year, new energy vehicles will bid farewell to "subsidies", bringing some uncertainty to the market; at the same time, the benefits still exist, and the tax-free policy will continue. More importantly, the turning point of public health events will bring new opportunities to the domestic economy and automobile market.

After the release of the public health policy, the industry is basically optimistic about the performance of the new energy vehicle market in 2023. Today, Lao Li mainly summarizes the new energy vehicle market in 2022 from the perspective of capital. at the same time, what are the turning points of the new energy vehicle industry in 2023? How will the capital market develop in the new year?

Industry upward, capital downward after the release of the new public health policy, the capital market is the busiest, which means that everyone's hard-working judgment in the past two months has to be "overturned and restarted". Two months ago, we carried out the 2023 market forecast, divided into optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, but now, the market is moving in the most optimistic direction.

In the past two days, some sellers in the secondary market have put forward such a view, and everyone agrees that the new energy vehicle sector in 2023 is the best year in the industry in the past decade, but looking at the next decade, this is the starting point, not the end.

Lao Li also agrees. Over the past decade or so, from the perspective of the industry, the development of the new energy vehicle industry can be divided into two stages:

The first stage is from 2009 to 2018. China's new energy vehicle industry is policy-driven. At that time, there was a lot of noise around new energy vehicles, such as subsidies. At this stage, the secondary market is not much involved in the new energy vehicle industry.

The second stage is from 2019 to the present. New energy vehicles have entered the stage of market-driven development, especially after Tesla built a factory in China, sales continued to increase, the market really accepted new energy vehicles, capital really concerned about the new energy vehicle industry, actually began in 2019.

In that year, Tesla officially realized localization, the Ningde era also began to emerge on the gem, and the new energy vehicle industry chain began to develop from small to large. From 2019 to 2021, thanks to the long-term new energy vehicle racing track, the secondary market broke out in an all-round way, but since 2022, international inflation superimposed public health events have comprehensively suppressed the automobile market and the capital market.

Brokers and funds in the secondary market are also distressed by the divergence between industry and capital. Because despite the global economic downturn, the fundamentals of domestic new energy vehicle companies have not changed and continue to improve:

In the first half of the year, the battery leader Ningde era achieved a business income of 112.97 billion yuan, an increase of 156.32% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 8.17 billion yuan, an increase of 82.17% over the same period last year, creating the best performance in history.

In the second half of the year, BYD announced that the 3 million new energy vehicle was officially off the line, from the 1st new energy vehicle to the 1 million new energy vehicle. BYD used 13 years, from 1 million to 2 million, and BYD took one year, while from 2 million to 3 million, BYD only used half a year, which represents not only the speed of BYD, but also the speed of the industry.

In the capital market, the market capitalization of new energy vehicle companies is falling sharply in 2022:

In 2022, the market value of Ningde era, the leader of power batteries, fell from 1.5 trillion to 8000 billion, shrinking by nearly half; the market value of BYD, the leader of vehicle companies, has also shrunk by 30% in the past year. The market value of Great Wall Motor has more than halved.

Despite the deviation between industry and capital in 2022, the secondary market is full of confidence in the performance of the new energy vehicle sector in 2023.

Ningde Times K chart L Lao Li first concluded that from a fundamental point of view, the new energy vehicle market in 2023 will show a trend of "stability and improvement". With the improvement of the international capital market and domestic public health policy, the external environment of the capital market has been greatly improved. Coupled with the "wrong kill valuation" in 2022, the secondary market will correct the name of the new energy vehicle sector in 2023.

What are the changes in the market? In 2022, the domestic economy as a whole was in the doldrums, showing a relatively obvious downward trend at the beginning of the year and the end of the year, falling to 0.4% in the second quarter and rising to 3.9% in the third quarter, but it is expected to fall below 3% in the fourth quarter. In spite of this, the market of new energy vehicles in 2022 is beyond everyone's expectations. in the first ten months of this year, many indicators such as production and sales and export volume of new energy vehicles reached record highs.

According to the data of the China Automobile Association, from January to November this year, China's production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 625.3 million and 6.067 million respectively, double the same period last year, and the production and sales reached record highs. Meanwhile, market penetration climbed to 25% in the first 11 months of this year, up from 13.4% for the whole of last year.

The export of new energy vehicles on BYD's weekly K line has also continued a high growth trend, with 499000 new energy vehicles exported in the first ten months of this year, an increase of 96.7 percent over the same period last year. With the gradual liberalization of foreign logistics and the acceleration of China-Europe special trains, exports will become a new growth point in 2023.

The market performance in 2022 has created a good foundation for 2023, but the market in 2023 is also ushering in positive and negative. What the secondary market needs to do is to "quantify" the qualitative positives and positives of these industries.

The main negative side of the market in 2023 is the elimination of subsidies and the shortage of supply chains such as batteries and chips. Lao Li believes that the above factors will not have a greater impact on the market, the state land subsidy itself in 2022 is not high, supply chain problems exist in 2022, policy liberalization will only further reduce the impact.

Next year's positive is also very obvious, the new policy release will quickly promote the domestic economic recovery, the domestic passenger car market will usher in a new round of upward cycle, market demand is expected to return to the potential growth rate.

In this context, the disadvantage of new energy vehicles compared with fuel vehicles is further narrowing:

First, oil prices will remain high next year. New energy vehicles will have a great advantage in terms of cost. In the past, Lao Li thought that oil prices had little impact on the sales of new energy vehicles, but a survey conducted by the China Automotive Center this year found that more than 40% of users would consider new energy vehicles because of oil prices.

Second, plug-in hybrid will become the main force driving the growth of new energy vehicle sales. In particular, the new energy vehicles represented by BYD DM-i will bring new changes to the market. In 2020, BYD fully opened up the hybrid market with the DM-i model, and users were very interested in plug-in models with low cost and no mileage anxiety.

At present, in addition to BYD DM-i models in the industry, Geely, Great Wall, Chang'an and other companies have also launched plug-in hybrid models, such as Geely's Thor hybrid model. Although the price of these plug-in hybrid models is not as obvious as that of BYD DM-i, they are also getting closer to the price of fuel cars of the same class.

With the increase of mixed models by domestic car companies next year, the mixed models of Geely, Great Wall and Chang'an are expected to increase quickly and occupy a certain market share in the mainstream price band, and the ideal and AITO questions are expected to dominate the high-end market.

The outbreak of plug-in hybrid will become a bright spot in the new energy vehicle market in 2023. Many institutions believe that the proportion of plug-in hybrid in new energy vehicle sales in 2023 will be close to 50%, and these increments will bring great changes to the market.

How can I get to the secondary market? Recently, many institutions have given forecasts for the secondary market in 2023. Frankly speaking, the secondary market is very optimistic about the new energy market in 2023. Most institutions give an annual sales forecast of 90-9.5 million vehicles, and some institutions even give a forecast of 10 million vehicles. Although the year-on-year growth rate of the market is narrowing, the sharp upward trend is still maintained.

The change of the capital market will be more optimistic than that of the industry. after the "multiple blows" in 2022, the current valuations of large-cap stocks and value stocks are in the historical quantile low, while the absolute valuations of small-cap stocks are high. The absolute valuation level is also higher, while the valuation of the CSI New Energy Index, which represents the new energy wind direction, is at an all-time low in nearly three years. This brings more room for the rise of the new energy sector next year.

Many of Lao Li's friends believe that the new energy vehicle sector in 2023 will show two stages:

The first stage is a comprehensive policy-driven recovery. After the change of public health policy, the focus of the secondary market has been on big consumption and big medicine, including tourism, aviation, daily necessities, etc., and big medicine includes medicine and medical devices and so on.

The valuation of these sectors is lower than that of new energy vehicles, and the rebound speed will be faster. In addition, the real estate industry chain is expected to achieve a soft landing with policy support, and the valuation of the relevant industry chain will be repaired one after another. In fact, the commercial vehicle sector is a part of the real estate industry chain. If the real estate is good, Sinotruk will be good.

Generally speaking, it is difficult for new energy vehicles to gain an advantage in the first quarter of next year, but the policy-driven market is often short-lived.

Lao Li believes that after the second quarter of next year, the market will re-enter the market-driven stage, everyone will fight or performance, at this time the advantages of new energy vehicles will be brought into full play.

From the perspective of the whole vehicle plate, the market is expected to be a tripod next year. In terms of head enterprises, BYD and Tesla will probably take the lead, with annual sales at the level of 1 million +, occupying the top two positions; this year, most of the new car-building forces delivered less than expected in 2022, but with the release of new models, car-building new forces will maintain sales of 20-300000 vehicles in 2023.

The most interesting enterprises next year are actually traditional vehicle companies such as GAC Eian, Geely, Great Wall and Changan. With the development of plug-in hybrids and pure electric models, the sales of new energy vehicles in these enterprises are expected to exceed 300000, surpassing the new forces of car building to enter the second echelon of sales.

In addition to the whole car enterprises, electrified and intelligent parts still have great potential to rise. Although lithium prices are likely to remain high, the overall price of the supply chain other than lithium carbonate may show a downward trend as capacity continues to be released, and the cost pressure on battery manufacturers may ease and there is still room to rise. In terms of intelligence, domain controllers, in-vehicle software, intelligent cockpits and other fields will be faster in 2023 than in 2022.

Generally speaking, the rise of the new energy vehicle industry chain in 2023 is likely to be the main tone throughout the year, and patience is the best magic weapon to make a profit in this process.

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: autocarweekly (ID:autocarweekly), author: Lao Li, Financial Street

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