Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

In 1995, as soon as Bill Gates' tech mansion came out, it was praised as "unparalleled in the world". There are several kilometers of communication cables in the mansion, which are connected to high-tech equipment inside and outside the house, and each room can use touch sensors to control lighting, music and temperature, and even after each visitor wears a special electron probe, as an intelligent "central" computer throughout the house, you can know where the visitor is and who he is with.

This mansion is still talked about by people, and the smart home has gradually developed into a new track full of potential since then. For ordinary consumers who do not have a luxury home to be intelligent, intelligence in a certain scene or application can also improve the quality of life, such as using a mobile phone to control the lighting, air conditioning, curtains, etc., and smart door locks, which do not have to carry keys with them. Fingerprints, passwords, facial scanning, voice control, etc., can open the door.

As a real "entry-level" intelligent home product, intelligent door lock has been developed in China for many years, the product form has developed from the initial electronic lock to the intelligent door lock, and the unlocking form is constantly upgrading and iterating. But a very strange phenomenon is that so far there has been no real "leader".

When there is no absolute leader in the industry, in the case of the separation of heroes, the industry becomes more and more popular, the price is getting lower and lower, and the ecological circle of players is getting bigger and bigger, and the domestic market begins to enter overseas one after another. Behind this series of actions is the players' self-evident goal of seizing the most important seat.

Such a situation also means that the market pattern formed over the past 30 years may change under the deliberate layout of the players. So, who is the "catfish" that stirs up the industry in this qualifying round?

Who is catching hundreds of billions of tuyere? Is smart door lock a good business? The answer is yes. After all, from ordinary door lock to intelligent door lock coincides with the process of evolution from made in China to intelligent building in China.

Since 2015, China's intelligent door lock market has ushered in an explosive period, with a blowout growth in the number of enterprises, especially with the birth of capital, Internet companies have entered the bureau one after another, and the industry has become more lively. According to the data of the forward-looking Industrial Research Institute, in the craziest years of 2017 and 2018, there were more than 3500 brands of intelligent door locks and more than 1500 manufacturing enterprises, and formed the trend of "thousand locks war".

Behind the full outbreak is the rapid growth of the market. Based on the huge user base of 490 million households in China, the demand for new smart door locks and the replacement of traditional locks make the hundreds of billions of-level cake in the intelligent door lock industry full of vitality.

According to public data from AVC, from January to August 2021, the total sales of China's intelligent door lock online market was 2.697 million, an increase of 53% over the same period last year; sales were 4.05 billion yuan, an increase of 65% over the same period last year, and the market growth was stable.

According to the report of Ai Media Consulting, the demand for smart door locks in China rose from 2 million sets in 2015-2022 to 43.26 million sets in 2021, and is expected to reach 56.85 million sets in 2022.

There is no doubt that the domestic intelligent door lock market has great potential, enterprises and capital will not miss this rare opportunity of Nuggets.

In fact, since the "Thousand Lock War", after five years of survival of the fittest, representative players in the market have formed three mainstream camps:

The first category is the traditional lock companies, represented by Kedith and Deshmann, who have rich product and technical strength and have a certain market pricing power.

The second category is Internet companies, platform-level players represented by Xiaomi and Huawei, which are characterized by relying on ecological advantages to form their own systems or collaborative advantages.

The third category is the traditional home appliance enterprises, represented by Haier Zhijia and other players. Although they have ready-made opportunities in brands, channels, and service systems, they have not completely come out at present.

The three camps have their own advantages, and the market continues to evolve.

According to market data in 2021, Xiaomi occupies the top spot in China's smart door lock market with a market share of 23.6%, while Cadiz and Deshmann rank second and third with 14% and 12% of the market. From a slow point of view, the "one super and two strong" pattern of the intelligent door lock industry has initially taken shape.

However, this does not mean that other brands do not have the opportunity. Players such as Huawei, Lenovo, Lvmi and Orebo are still in hot pursuit in the field of smart door locks.

Online monitoring shows that the sales share of the TOP10 brand accounts for about 68.6% of the total in the first half of this year, and the industry concentration is relatively high.

Similar to other industries, when the industry comes out of the head players, the market will quickly enter a period of differentiation. Take the domestic smartphone industry as an example, Huawei firmly occupies the wisdom of high-end brand users of domestic mobile phones with R & D capabilities and technical barriers; Xiaomi walks out of a road of performance-to-price ratio by virtue of early fan marketing; the dual-brand strategy implemented by OPPO allows OPPO to take the high-end business route on one side, while Yijia mobile phone intensive research and development on the other, seizing geeks who need quality and texture.

Intelligent door lock racing track can not escape this commercial law. In their respective sub-areas, different players are looking for a "new fulcrum" to pry the continued growth of the business in their own advantages.

Kedith is well known in the industry that the sensational revenue-generating purchase of Dinggu set failed, but this did not stop its pace of capital. According to SkyEye data, Cadiz, which was founded in 2009, has completed six rounds of financing, half of which was completed in the last two years. This year, Cadiz personally launched an impact on A shares, and its revenue and profit scale also surpassed the previous acquirer Dinggu Ji Chuang.

According to the prospectus, Kedith's total revenue reached 2 billion yuan in 2021, nearly doubling from the same period last year. Among them, K9 series and K20 series popular style products contribute most of the income. From the product line point of view, Cadiz has covered the price range of 1000-3500 yuan, and has made gains in both low and high-end markets.

From a slow point of view, Cadis's business expansion continues, and the impact on A shares is just one of its capital expansion means. It can be foreseen that in order to succeed in the listing, Cadiz is bound to "expand its moves" at the product level in order to continuously expand the basic set of business. Moreover, its strategic cooperation with OPPO will help Kadiz to build the scene and efficiently integrate into the intelligent system of the whole house, which will be the next city of intelligent door lock.

There has been a lot of capital movement in the past two years. In October this year, Deshmann Smart Lock completed D-round financing, which is the fourth financing completed in two years. As for the financing, Deschmann said that it will be used to build high-end brands in the smart lock industry, especially the concentration of high-power advertising in first-tier cities, as well as the construction of hundreds of large super experience stores in first-tier cities.

As one of the earliest domestic enterprises to enter the field of intelligent lock, Deshmann has a complete industrial chain and is a rare intelligent door lock brand integrating research, production and marketing in China. Taking R & D as an example, it precipitates 300 + core patents and continues to take the lead in 3D face recognition technology, which is the core of the current high-end intelligent lock market.

As Xiaomi, which occupies the first place in the market, in addition to relying on Xiaomi's R & D, capital and channel advantages, Xiaomi intelligent door lock has two significant advantages: cost performance and AIoT ecology.

Online channels, Xiaomi best sales of several smart locks, the price is concentrated in the range of 1000-1500 yuan. By contrast, Cadiz's popular K20 series starts at more than 2000 yuan, not to mention the high-end Deshmann. The positioning of small profits and quick turnover allows Xiaomi to quickly seize a large number of market share.

In terms of AIoT ecology, Xiaomi's intelligent door lock products not only provide standard passwords and fingerprints for unlocking, but also support various unlocking methods such as Xiaomi bracelet, mobile phone NFC, mobile phone Bluetooth and so on. In addition, users can also remotely monitor and view the door lock log through Mijia App. This kind of linkage effect based on ecology is beyond the reach of players such as Kedith and Deshmann.

Of course, Xiaomi is not unassailable. For example, in the B-end channel market, Deschman has become the core supplier of intelligent locks for more than 100 leading real estate enterprises, such as Greentown Group, China Sea Real Estate, Longhu Land and so on. Cadis had more than 10% of the hardcover housing market in 2021. And this is precisely the deficiency that Xiaomi can't match.

In addition, the performance of players such as Huawei, Lvmi and Haier Zhijia is also remarkable. Such as green rice and Tmall whole house intelligence, moon star global port and other different areas of players strategic cooperation, the whole house intelligent ecology. Haier Zhijia put the smart door lock into its own long-term layout of the smart home system, ending the sequence of individual combat to a certain extent.

Huawei's entry is regarded as the biggest attraction of the smart door lock industry in the first half of this year. With its own brand effect, technological advantages, user base and scene ecological advantages, Huawei is rushed into the sales volume of TOP10. In terms of price, Huawei has not made every effort to enter the high-end market. On October 25, Huawei released the latest smart door lock SE. Compared with the previous generation, after canceling the 1080p high-definition cat's eye, the price is also 500 yuan cheaper, and the first launch price is only 1099 yuan.

It is not hard to see that Huawei is driving the price that Xiaomi is good at.

On the whole, the environment is booming. Players in the meantime want to seek better development, and the final difficulty boils down to one thing: who can get more market share.

Collectively go out to sea, looking for new increments to get out of the siege, players on the one hand hope to expand the market share in order to gain scale advantage; on the other hand is to open up new territory to find new increments. For the former, TOP10 players have their own tricks, but they are surprisingly consistent in the strategic choices of the latter.

China's business stories have always liked to reflect foreign trends at home. There are precedents for the Internet, home appliances, corporate services and even pet markets, because these industries have a high penetration rate in foreign markets. China's market has huge room for growth in the future.

The smart door lock industry is no exception. The penetration of smart door locks has not been able to break out in China. Compared with the penetration rate of more than 60% in Europe, America, Japan and South Korea, Chinese families are not so enthusiastic about smart door lock products. In this context, going out to sea is a good choice. after all, a lot of effort can be saved in the most critical link of market education, and overseas brands only need to focus on products.

In fact, in recent years, a large number of domestic smart door lock brands have started a journey to sea.

In March this year, Cadiz announced the launch of a global strategy after receiving a new round of 600 million yuan in financing. At this stage, in the B-end market, Cadiz has successively opened up overseas markets such as North America, Southeast Asia and the Middle East; in the consumer market, it has also begun to enter foreign e-commerce platforms such as Amazon and eBay.

There are also Aqara green rice in the sea layout. This year, it released a fully automatic intelligent door lock D100 Zigbee to the international market, which has been launched in Singapore, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In addition, Aqara flagship stores have also been located in Amazon Mall in Italy and Spain.

There are also deer passengers who set up overseas markets earlier in the industry. As early as 2019, it began to go to sea. At present, its business has covered more than 12 countries and regions around the world, with a total shipment of 300000 sets.

The domestic intelligent door lock goes out to sea collectively, in addition to the greater tolerance and higher permeability of the overseas market for the intelligent door lock, the volume of the overseas market can not be ignored. According to Market sand Markets data, the market size of smart door locks in the United States alone is expected to reach 2.1 billion US dollars in 2022, which is equivalent to that of domestic smart door locks. Moreover, by 2026, the global smart door lock market will be close to 8 billion US dollars (53 billion yuan).

Obviously, the overseas market has become a very definite incremental market for domestic intelligent door lock brands.

Conclusion: the smart door lock is currently moving towards "transparency", which is reflected in the division of different camps, the way different players play, and the direction of the roll.

When all the players in the industry get the "clear card", the competition in the future market is bound to be more fierce, how well they do in a certain field, consumers will be able to compete openly. Therefore, there is hardly much to see in terms of products and prices. On the contrary, with the continuous promotion of the Internet of things and smart home, the competition and scene expansion based on ecology are very likely to become the focus of competition in the future.

From this point of view, Kedith, which is co-built with OPPO ecology, as well as players with smart home ecological advantages and industry and research advantages such as Haier Zhijia and Huawei, deserve more attention in the future.

Reference:

① Intelligent Relativity: smart door Lock New War: Xiaodu, Huawei, Aqara, Kedith, Deer go out to sea

② value Research Institute: intelligent door lock "three Kingdoms kill", who can "lock" the world?

③ Chinese science pioneer: fierce battle, reshuffle, persevere, smart door lock agitation for 10 years

④ Securities Times: another post-90s rush to A shares! Intelligent door lock faucet opened listing tutoring, there are tens of thousands of terminal outlets, there have been A-share companies to buy

⑤ Ray Technology: the savage growth of intelligent door lock market, why there is no leader?

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: ID:manfangsd, author: Qi Qi, Editor: Dahan

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