Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Prior to this, there has been a famous saying in the new energy used car circle, that is, "the new car is discounted by 50% a year and broken in three years", which is used to describe the dismal situation in the used car market.

Today, this situation has changed greatly.

On December 15, a reporter from China Youth Daily found at the Youxin used car store in Hefei that the number of customers who came to buy new energy used cars increased by more than 20% compared with last month. According to a report released by Tian Tian car shooting Research Institute, the online turnover of new energy used cars increased by 33.7% in the past November. Guazi big data even showed that in October, the growth rate of new energy used car trading volume reached 348.5%, which is more than 10 times the growth rate of fuel used car trading in the same period.

The online trading volume of new energy used cars has been on the rise for three months in a row. This situation can even be extended to the first half of this year. According to the China Automobile Circulation Association, the trading volume of new energy used vehicles reached 156000 in the first half of the year, an increase of 36.4 percent over the same period last year and 24.5 percent higher than the growth rate of traditional fuel vehicles.

This has indicated that the new energy second-hand car trade has become a huge business opportunity.

However, compared with fuel-fueled used cars, new energy used cars have problems such as value preservation rate and driving range. More importantly, the transparency of new energy used car information is low, and the evaluation system has not yet been established. This has greatly hindered the sustained and rapid development of the new energy used car market and is in urgent need of improvement.

If some enterprises solve these problems, they will subvert the traditional used car trading market and become the giant of the second-hand car market in the future. At present, Internet giants such as Byte, Ali, JD.com and Tencent, as well as some new energy car companies have entered the new energy used car market.

This paper attempts to answer three questions:

1. What are the reasons for the popularity of the new energy used car market at present?

two。 Where are the business opportunities of new energy second-hand car trading?

3. Which participants in the new energy used car market will rise in the future?

1, the transaction is hot not only the growth rate of the number of new energy used car transactions is faster, but also the transaction price is also rising.

Take the data released by Tian Tian car shooting Network as an example, in September this year, the average online transaction price of new energy used cars was 96558.14 yuan, up 10.2% from the previous month and 35% from the same period last year. In addition, the average number of online bids for new energy used cars in November was 13, which was higher than that of fuel-fueled used cars.

There is an urgent market demand behind the high price of second-hand car manufacturers. According to a survey of second-hand car dealers in Chongqing by the Workers' Daily, the circulation cycle of new energy used cars has been greatly shortened, and some popular models can even be collected and sold on the same day. Some second-hand car dealers have switched from fuel-fueled used cars to new energy used cars.

From the point of view of various institutions, the car Intelligence Tank found that since the beginning of this year, especially since the second half of the year, the trading volume and prices of new energy second-hand cars have risen, mainly due to the increase in the cost of fuel vehicles, the rise in the price of new energy vehicles, and the extension of the delivery cycle, thus driving the sales of new energy used cars.

At present, the cost of fuel vehicles is significantly higher than that of new energy vehicles. According to the data of Zhi Zhi Research, the use cost of new energy vehicles per kilometer is 0.22 yuan to 0.24 yuan, while the cost of fuel vehicles per kilometer is 0.71 yuan to 0.92 yuan, the gap between the two is 2-14 times. Moreover, the electricity price in China remains basically stable while the oil price fluctuates greatly. This year, China's oil prices have been adjusted 24 times, of which 13 times have been raised. This makes many consumers prefer to give up fuel cars and switch to new energy vehicles when buying cars.

Tuyuan: there is also a threshold for buying new energy and new cars for smart research. Since the beginning of this year, the price of new energy vehicles has been rising continuously. According to incomplete statistics, since March 2022, more than 30 car brands have raised the prices of new energy vehicles, including BYD, Xiaopeng, Nezha, Zero and other new car-building brands, with specific increases ranging from 1000 yuan to more than 30,000 yuan. Due to the retrogression of state subsidies next year, the probability of new energy vehicles continuing to rise is also higher. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Federation of passengers, believes that at the beginning of next year, the domestic new energy car market may set off a new round of price increases.

More importantly, the order delivery cycle of new energy vehicles is very long. Xiaopeng, Weilai, extreme krypton and other new car-building forces of the best-selling model delivery cycle was once more than 3 months.

Since new energy and new cars are difficult to buy quickly, and prices will continue to rise in the future (which can also be understood as "appreciation"), many consumers will think that it is a better choice to buy new energy used cars that are cheaper and can be delivered quickly. According to the relationship between supply and demand, the increase in the number of new energy used car buyers will not only increase transaction prices, but also stimulate more consumers to buy, forming a virtuous circle.

The preservation rate of new energy used cars, which consumers were worried about before, has also been partially improved. The research report on the preservation rate of cars in China in October 2022 released by the China Automobile Circulation Association recently shows that the preservation rate of new energy vehicles has increased steadily. Guazi transaction big data shows that in the three-year preservation rate trend list of new energy vehicles, the three-year preservation rate of mainstream TOP20 cars ranges from 55.3% to 73.4%, with an average of 59.7%, which is acceptable to consumers as a whole. Moreover, Wei Xiaoli and other new energy car companies have also launched measures to protect the value of new energy used cars.

The policy has also played a great role in promoting the popularity of the new energy used car market at present.

Since the beginning of this year, the relevant departments have announced the extension of exemption from new energy purchase tax, explicitly supported the large-scale development of the circulation of used cars, and strictly implemented the policy of abolishing restrictions on the relocation of used cars in all regions. The implementation of this series of policies has effectively opened up the congestion points in the national circulation of used cars and increased consumers' choice of buying cars; in particular, the value-added tax of the used car industry has dropped by 75%, which will significantly reduce the circulation cost of used cars and provide a better soil for the large-scale development of used car transactions.

2. Unlimited business opportunities although the new energy second-hand car trade is very popular at present, the industry is skeptical about its future development.

The trade of new energy used cars is hot, mainly due to the rising prices of new energy new cars and long delivery time, which overflows the consumer demand of used cars. However, the delivery time of new energy and new cars is getting shorter and shorter. For example, Tesla's delivery cycle, which was up to one year, is now only 1-5 weeks, which is greatly shortened. Moreover, in the coming 2023, especially in the second half of 2023, there is a great possibility that new energy vehicles will be sold at reduced prices. At that time, this wave of new energy second-hand car trading is likely to come to an abrupt end.

Therefore, based on the consideration of the sustainable development of the industry, we need to find ways to make the new energy used car market develop continuously and healthily. According to the previous report of Che Baiji, the urgent problem to be solved to ensure the sustained and healthy development of new energy used cars is that the information of used cars is not transparent and there is a lack of fair value evaluation system.

At present, most of the second-hand car transactions rely on traditional evaluation methods, which are relatively backward, mainly manual testing, which is lack of professionalism and effectiveness, which makes the relevant information such as vehicle condition opaque. Moreover, the pricing of new energy used cars lacks an authoritative and complete evaluation system. At present, this system is based on the development of used fuel vehicles, and there are great differences between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles in terms of structure and parts. it has been difficult to adapt to the evaluation of new energy second-hand vehicles with intelligent and electric components.

For example, in the evaluation of new energy used cars, power batteries are critical, because the price cost of power batteries accounts for the main part of the price of naked cars. At the present stage, many new energy second-hand car manufacturers and mainframe factories evaluate the "three power", including power batteries, vaguely and inaccurately. they only rely on external performance capabilities such as battery life to reverse the value of battery power. lack of mature assessment techniques and tools. In addition, the technology of the intelligent network connected products carried by the new energy second-hand car is fast, which also increases the complexity of the evaluation model.

Touyuan: at present, because of the opaque information and imperfect evaluation system of new energy used cars, the transaction price of new energy used cars deviates seriously from their true value compared with fuel used cars.

In addition, the entire second-hand car market, including new energy used cars, presents five major chaos because of opaque information and the lack of a unified and standardized evaluation system for second-hand cars, that is, lack of after-sales integrity, false propaganda, difficult to deliver promised services, questionable commodity quality, and unpreventable routine loans.

It can be seen that it is very important to ensure the transparency of the information of new energy used vehicles and to establish a fair and unified national evaluation system for new energy used vehicles.

Learning from the experience of Europe and the United States, we can see that many giant enterprises in the used car market in Europe and the United States start from the information disclosure of used cars, start from the evaluation of used cars, and then develop into the leading used car service enterprises in the industry step by step.

For example, the American CarFax company starts with the information transparency of used cars, and then becomes the leading enterprise in the American second-hand car market. At the beginning of the establishment of CarFax, the focus was to solve the problem of unscrupulous car dealers tampering with the odometer in the American used car market at that time. Because of the data authority and welcomed by consumers, it quickly developed into a second-hand car data service company.

Currently, CarFax's data comes from DMV and PoliceDepartment in the United States, as well as from a number of vehicle insurance companies. When consumers buy a used car, they can get a report on all the information about the car through CarFax. For example, the "Title" item in the report will describe in detail the accidental injuries caused by natural disasters or man-made, such as immersion of the car, hail damage and so on. Under the huge data statistics of CARFAX, the false information of 99% accident cars can be avoided.

Even though the transparent information of each car can be obtained through CARFAX, American consumers are not satisfied, and they still have the need for the valuation of used cars, which makes the American KBB company develop rapidly.

KBB often publishes blue books on the price of used cars, focusing on valuing used cars. The price of cars on KBB once became the official guiding price. As a result, every consumer who buys a used car in the United States will check KBB's valuation of the car.

CarFax and KBB have solved the problems of information transparency and unified evaluation system of used cars in the United States, which makes the used car market in the United States develop rapidly. At present, in the United States, the trading volume of used cars is basically 2-3 times that of new cars. In the past decade, the average annual sales of new cars in the United States is about 16 million, while the average annual sales of used cars is about 40 million.

3. Who will rise? Compared with the United States, China accounts for a very small proportion of used car transactions. According to the Ministry of Commerce, the trading volume of used cars in China reached 17.59 million in 2021, less than 6 percent of the total number of cars, far lower than the US auto market. New energy accounts for an even smaller share of used car transactions.

However, the future of the new energy used car deal will be a huge business opportunity.

In the recent article "Ten opportunities in the second half of China's New Energy vehicles", the vice chairman and secretary-general of the China Electric vehicle Association cited the post-market of new energy vehicles, including the second-hand car trade, as one of the major opportunities.

It can be predicted that in the next few years, the transaction of new energy used cars will increase year by year, thanks to the rapid rise of new energy car sales in recent years. If the four-year-old car is used as a standard line for the sale of new energy used cars, then, according to the previous sales of new energy vehicles, the estimated trading volume of new energy used cars in the next four years is 750000, 860000, 2.21 million and 3.42 million respectively.

According to the report of Cha Bai think Tank, under the scenario of rapid development of the post-market, the trading volume of new energy used vehicles will reach 5 million in 2025 and 15 million in 2030. Zhang Yongwei also predicts that the size of the automobile aftermarket, including used car trading, will be about 5 trillion yuan.

Tu Yuan: at this time, if an enterprise starts from the information transparency and value evaluation system of new energy used cars to solve the problem of consumer confusion, it can win the trust of consumers and take the lead in seizing the market in this area.

At present, it seems that the future third-party vehicle condition information and vehicle pricing service providers, according to their ability and background, may be divided into two categories, namely, automotive industry background and IT industry background. Although both of them can provide used car condition report and vehicle valuation service based on data accumulation, the former usually focuses on asset operation, focusing on the development of new energy used car evaluation and testing equipment and the establishment of new energy used car evaluation team. can achieve electric used cars "one car, one price", pay attention to the accuracy of used car pricing. The latter usually neglects asset operation, pays attention to data accumulation, and provides differentiated services for C-end and B-end customers based on massive data. On the one hand, it can accumulate a lot of consumer information, supplement the underlying automobile database and adjust the valuation model to improve the accuracy of the model. On the other hand, it can expand services such as used car trading and car maintenance vertically.

At present, there are mainly three types of players in the new energy used car market.

First, the Internet platform for second-hand car trading developed in the era of fuel vehicles.

For example, Internet platforms such as Guazi, Youxin used car, and Tiantian car shooting Network have been involved in new energy used car transactions, and the growth rate is very fast. However, these used car platforms have experienced a cumulative baptism of more than 10 billion US dollars in financing, and their development is not good.

In the current used car market, 70% of transactions are done offline, 5% of individual transactions between car owners and 10% of dealers, while only 15% are traded on these Internet platforms, according to car e estimates. The reason is that the Internet platform can not make the information of used cars transparent, and there is no fair evaluation system to convince consumers, and consumers have limited trust in them. Moreover, at present, the rapid development of live broadcast platforms has greatly reduced the information exchange function of these Internet platforms. Even if consumers adopt the Internet model to learn about used cars, they tend to prefer the live broadcast mode of Douyin and Kuaishou, rather than these Internet platforms.

Picture source: che e estimates its second, Ali, JD.com, Tencent and other Internet giants.

Recently, Chongqing Vientiane Youche Technology Co., Ltd., which is indirectly wholly owned by Douyin Co., Ltd., which is owned by byte jump, has undergone industrial and commercial changes, with a new business scope of auction business and used car auction. In April this year, Ali launched its first used car recycling business in Xianyu App. In August, Ali Asset second-hand car business launched the "peace of mind delivery" platform. During the Singles' Day holiday, Ali second-hand cars opened online live channels, and some luxury cars can even start shooting at as low as 1 yuan.

JD.com invested 1.15 billion US dollars in Yi car as early as 2015 and authorized it to operate exclusively the new and used car business on JD.com 's platform. In 2019, JD.com invested in the B2B auction platform for used cars. In 2020, JD.com launched the "East car Hui" APP and personally went offline to do second-hand car transactions. In 2021, JD.com reached a strategic cooperation with Youxin to strengthen the layout of used cars. Over the years, Tencent has also entered the used car market by way of investment.

Third, car companies.

Some new energy car companies are also laying out their official used car businesses, such as Tesla, Weilai and Xiaopeng. The official websites of these car companies all put the entrance to the used car business in a conspicuous place on the website. Car companies to enter the second-hand car market as vehicle manufacturers, in terms of vehicle quality, it is easier to get the trust of customers. The service network of automobile enterprises covers a wide scale, which can quickly meet the different needs of users, and its sound after-sales service system can effectively improve the conversion rate of old customers.

To sum up, Che Baizhi feels that compared with the older generation of used car Internet platform companies, new energy car companies, and Internet giants, they are more likely to start with the identity of third-party car condition information and vehicle pricing service providers. Become a new energy used car trading giant.

New energy car companies know more about their cars than other companies, which is a "wealth" transferred by car companies. While the Internet giant has big data's analytical ability and has many traffic entrances, it can provide users with accurate and authoritative information services for new energy used cars, provide users with more efficient purchase guidelines, and then with the help of the payment and credit system behind them (such as Ali's sesame credit, JD.com 's JD.com white slip), to create a more secure and robust used car financial consumption environment for users.

Therefore, if car companies and Internet giants can join hands to start with the information transparency and value evaluation system of new energy used cars, it is possible to eat the "big cake" of the new energy used car market in the future.

Full-text reference

[1] Research report on Internet used car platform in China, number of Fastdata poles

[2] "Internet bigwigs and car companies have made a lot of" moves "in the seemingly calm second-hand car market, the car estimates.

[3] "second-hand cars back in the spotlight: puzzles, subversion and competitors", Phoenix WEEKLY

[4] there is no 'accurate' valuation of used cars in China.

[5] "the third issue of the US report: CARFAX, making leave nowhere to be created", Ika

[6] "there is a competition between oil and electricity in automobiles. What is the difference in the cost between the two? "the study of insight and wisdom

[7] "Guazi Youxin big car search and other chaos not only automobile e-commerce can also fly up? ", net Social Science and Technology

Part of the point of view of this article comes from the "New opportunities and challenges in the Post-Market of Intelligent Electric vehicles" published by che Baizhi Ku Research News.

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: che Bai think Tank (ID:EV100_Plus), author: Chen Zhongshan, Editor: a Feng, typesetting: Haotian

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