Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

"since 2022, the demand for consumer electronics terminals has declined, and the corresponding chip manufacturers have begun to cut orders to eliminate inventory. With the gradual release of the production capacity of consumer chips, the production capacity of automotive chips will increase. At present, the situation of lack of automobile core has been alleviated." A few days ago, a staff member of a chip trading market supplier told the automobile news agency.

Recently, Morgan Stanley semiconductor industry analyst Zhan Jiahong said that some automotive semiconductor suppliers, such as MCU and CIS suppliers Renesa Semiconductor and on Semiconductor, are currently cutting back on chip test orders in the fourth quarter, indicating that automotive chips are no longer out of stock.

We should know that in recent years, under the influence of a series of factors, such as epidemic situation, cold wave, fire, earthquake and so on, there has been a serious shortage of chips in various industries, among which automotive chips are the most serious. a number of automobile companies have stopped production or reduced production due to core shortage and other problems. According to AutoForecast Solutions, global production has been reduced by 10.2 million vehicles in 2021 due to a shortage of automotive chips, while China has reduced production by about 1.98 million vehicles, accounting for about 19% of the total global production reduction.

So what is the current supply of automotive chips? As a new energy vehicle "lack of core expensive electricity" one of the two "nightmares"lack of core" is really over?

01. Car companies are still short of cores. Where does the contrast come from? At the 12th China Automobile Forum hosted by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on November 9, Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, said: "lack of core and expensive electricity have become the most painful points in our industry. From January to September this year, Changan Automobile has lost 606000 vehicles due to the impact of lack of core expensive electricity, epidemic power restriction and so on."

GAC GROUP and SAIC are also facing a shortage of chips. recently, a securities magazine called the two car companies, and the relevant staff of GAC GROUP said: "at present, MCU will be a little nervous." SAIC staff said: "this year's chip shortage is not quite the same as last year's large-scale chip shortage, this year is mainly a shortage of chips with different parts." the situation for the whole car company should be similar. "

The new forces are also plagued by the problem of lack of cores. Prior to this, Li Hui, vice president of Aichi Automobile, revealed to the Automotive News Agency: "lack of cores has become a consensus in the industry, and Aichi cars have also been affected. For this reason, we will send purchasing personnel to the site to obtain more chip resources, and will also seek more chip supply channels in the market."

In addition to local car companies, foreign car companies have not completely solved the problem of lack of cores. Toyota recently announced that Toyota plans to produce about 750000 vehicles worldwide in December 2022, compared with November production plans and actual production in December last year. 6% less. As the shortage of automotive chips continues, some production lines at Toyota's three assembly plants in Japan will be shut down.

Upstream chip manufacturers cut chip orders, but downstream car companies are still plagued by lack of core, why is there such a contrast?

According to a sales staff in a chip distribution market, "Renesa's MCU and on Semet's CIS do not make many inquiries, and they have not seen any particularly obvious increase or decrease in recent days, and the market reaction is not strong."

You know, a traditional fuel vehicle may need about 600chips, but in recent years, with the rapid development of new energy vehicles and the continuous iteration of intelligent technology, a new energy vehicle may need as many as 2000 chips, including main control chips, power chips, analog chips, sensor chips, memory chips and so on. Renesa's MCU and on Semet's CIS only account for some of them, and do not fully represent automobile chips.

Another reason is that automotive chips have higher safety, quality and certification requirements than consumer chips, and have longer cycle of capacity expansion, greater investment and higher risk. compared with consumer chips with greater and more stable demand, manufacturers obviously do not have more enthusiasm for the automotive chip production line, such as mobile phones, laptops and other products. Previously, the "lifesaver" of car companies will become a "burden" for chipmakers.

In the third quarter of 2022, the output of automotive semiconductor wafers of TSMC, the world's largest contract chip manufacturer, grew at an annual rate of 82%, 140% higher than before the epidemic.

At the same time, Morgan Stanley believes that sales of electric vehicles in China have gradually weakened (accounting for 50% to 60% of the world's electric vehicles), so that automotive semiconductors are now in full supply, leading to orders from big car chip manufacturers.

02. The shortage of automobile core has changed from "all" to "local". Although the shortage of comprehensive automotive chips has been alleviated, the local shortage has always existed. " A staff member of the supplier of the chip trading market told the Automotive News Agency. "since October 2021, the demand for automotive chips has begun to ease. Previously, the prices of chips that have been fired to high prices due to lack of core have begun to fall, but there will still be a surge in demand for individual chips. as a result, car companies pay at high prices."

According to the sales, in the automotive chip distribution market, the most representative automotive chip is L9369-TR, which is mainly L9369-TR chip, the core chip of automotive electronic stability system produced by ST, is a necessary component of high-end cars and SUV, the main function is to detect and reduce the loss of traction, in order to prevent skidding, the importance for automobile safety is self-evident.

"in July 2021, a car company asked if there was a L9369-TR chip. At that time, I quoted a price of 270 pieces, but because it was not a complete chip, it was finally rejected by the customer." Subsequently, the Malaysian factory of ST was affected by the epidemic, and the price of the chip quickly entered a state of shortage, and the price skyrocketed. "at that time, when the chip was at its most exaggerated, it rose to more than 6000 yuan, and the customers of previous car companies came back to me and said that they needed it, regardless of cost."

"A few days ago, a customer from a car company asked about this chip. I remember that the quotation was 380 yuan, but as long as the customer did not unpack the chip, he finally did not reach a deal, which was different from the form in which goods were needed before. now many skyrocketing chip prices have come down, which means there is no shortage." The salesman revealed to the auto news agency. But as to which car company it is, the salesperson said the customer's privacy could not be disclosed.

The response of car companies to the chip means the change of market demand, and also means that the lack of core is undergoing earth-shaking changes, but the local lack of core still can not be changed.

The sales staff revealed: "on the whole, the demand for automotive chips is still relatively strong. Recently, automotive chips from TI, a major manufacturer of automotive chips, are still out of stock, and prices are soaring, while ST, another major manufacturer of automotive chips, although the overall demand is weak, but the shortage of automotive drive chips is still very serious, and spot prices remain high, and some of the other major automotive chip manufacturers are also out of stock."

Under the inquiry of the Automotive News Agency, it was learned that the price difference in the skyrocketing car chips was basically paid for by car companies. It can be seen that although the overall lack of core situation has been alleviated, but the local lack of core is still a difficult problem in front of automobile companies.

03. The supply mode of automotive chips has changed, and localization is in full swing. Throughout the history of lack of cores in the past two years, the biggest change is the supply mode of automotive chips.

In the past, car companies generally docked with Tier1, not directly with the original chip manufacturer, but when the core shortage came, Tier1 was at a loss. For this reason, many car companies chose to bypass Tier1 to directly ask for chips from the original manufacturer, and their participation in the supply chain is getting stronger and stronger.

A Tier1 staff member told the Automotive News Agency: "the lack of cores in car companies will affect the trust of car companies in Tier1 supply chain capabilities to a certain extent, so Tier1 will also communicate with car companies to the original chip manufacturers, and sometimes purchase chips from the market at high prices, resulting in a lot of expenditure."

"however, the chip replacement cycle is relatively long, and in the end, we can only go offline without parts. After the car factory has assembled the car, it will first be sent to the 4S store or big warehouse, and then go to the store for assembly when the parts are supplied. For this reason, Tier1 manufacturers have incurred a lot of expenses."

On the other hand, car companies have also realized the importance of building a local automotive chip supply chain. To this end, various car companies have begun to lay out domestic chip business, or invest in domestic chip manufacturers, or set up companies to engage in self-research. According to incomplete statistics, a series of independent brands, such as SAIC, FAW, BAIC, Guangzhou Automobile, Dongfeng, Geely, BYD, Great Wall, ideal, Xiaopeng, Lulai and so on, have laid out automotive chips. A supply chain of automotive chips with oriental ecology is in full swing.

According to the latest data from AutoForecast Solutions, as of December 4, production has been reduced by 4.186 million vehicles per month in 2022 due to chip shortages. It is expected that more than 200,000 vehicles may be reduced in December in all regions of the world, while in 2023, the global automobile industry is expected to reduce production by 2 million-3 million vehicles.

It can be seen that the lack of core is still a protracted war.

This article is from the official account of Wechat: automobile News Agency (ID:automobile-news), by Cheng Yu.

Welcome to subscribe "Shulou Technology Information " to get latest news, interesting things and hot topics in the IT industry, and controls the hottest and latest Internet news, technology news and IT industry trends.