Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

CTOnews.com December 22 news, according to TrendForce Jibang consulting research shows, due to the low willingness to purchase silicon wafers, and terminal demand is also approaching with overseas end-of-year holidays and Spring Festival, began to enter the industry traditional off-season, first-line silicon wafer suppliers began to significantly reduce the price of silicon wafers, the price reduction tide also spread from silicon wafers to silicon and battery chips and other materials, in the silicon material prices began to fall at the same time silicon wafer suppliers also speed up clearing inventory, in order to avoid silicon wafer follow-up price drop more severe. Given the upcoming slack season in demand, wafer manufacturers are trying to reduce operating rates, but at the same time new entrants continue to join and accelerate the construction of new capacity. Affected by inventory pressure and industry competition, silicon wafer prices have shown obvious signs of decline since December, with the highest monthly decline of 19.5% for M10 silicon wafers.

TrendForce Consulting further stated that the prices of silicon and solar cells to photovoltaic modules will continue to fall to the fate of the first quarter of next year. Since the beginning of this year, the price of silicon materials has continued to rise. By November, the orders of the first-line silicon material manufacturers are still full, but the actual quotation of the second-line silicon material manufacturers has started to decline significantly since the middle and late November. Since December, the growth rate of new orders began to slow down. After the first-line silicon material manufacturers completed the preliminary orders for six consecutive times, the inventory accumulation situation appeared, but the new production capacity of silicon materials was still being released month by month, and the supply shortage situation was no longer. It was estimated that the price of silicon materials in December was about 275 RMB per kilogram, down 8.3% monthly.

In the face of falling prices of upstream raw materials and cooling of terminal demand, PV module manufacturers are reluctant to purchase batteries, but the supply of batteries is not reduced due to higher operating rates, thus easing the tight supply and demand of batteries for nearly a year, which further loosens the price of batteries in December. In terms of large size cells, December fell by more than 8% per watt month. However, due to the technical differences in battery production, it is expected that in 2023, batteries will still be the most profitable materials in the photovoltaic industry chain.

PV modules since mid-December China rush to install gradually into the end, overseas demand due to the holiday and lower prices triggered by silicon wafers have caused silicon materials and battery chips to fall one after another, PV module industry has also reduced the rate of operation. From the price point of view, as the upstream price drop has been within the expectations of PV module operators, some projects to be delivered next year have begun to have winning bid prices below RMB 1.9 per watt.

Looking forward to the PV industry in 2023, in addition to China's continuous promotion of large-scale projects to stimulate PV demand, it also includes the European energy transformation, as well as the tax avoidance of four PV companies in China, which will accelerate the demand side to urgently use the two-year tax exemption transition period to install PV modules, which will boost the growth of the PV market in 2023. It should be noted that, due to the overcapacity of silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries and other links in the industrial chain, the sharp decrease in the price of each material will trigger the PV demand suppressed in 2022, especially for large-scale ground projects that are more sensitive to prices. The demand for this part will become the largest variable that is difficult to predict the PV market scale in 2023.

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