Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

About two years ago, when it comes to the new power of electric power, the word people often say is "the four Little Dragons of making cars".

These four little dragons respectively refer to: Weilai, Weima, Xiaopeng and ideal.

Today, the name Weima seems to be quiet, and other brands such as Baiteng, Aichi, Yundu and so on fade out of sight with it.

The competition between the new electric powers is like a werewolf killing, one lies today, one cools tomorrow, and one dies the day after tomorrow. Some even sell well on the front foot, and the rear foot is about to stop production and close down.

Now, in the face of this market inflection point where the epidemic policy is liberalized and recovery is imminent, the direction of this "electric werewolf killing" seems to be a question worth exploring:

Who will be next to be killed?

Or, more rationally, which family is more at risk of being left behind in this game?

Today, the editorial department of knowing the danger will discuss this issue with you.

First of all, it is financial.

Wei Xiaoli's three families are now losing money without exception. According to the data of the last four years, Wei Lai loses the most, Xiaopeng takes the second place, and ideal is the least.

Although both are losing money, the losses of Weilai and ideal have a tendency to narrow, especially ideal, which is about to break even. While Xiaopeng's performance is relatively poor, the loss is expanding, becoming the three manufacturers with the largest losses in 2021, it is worth noting that during the reporting period, Xiaopeng's car sales are the highest.

From the perspective of financial health, the asset-liability ratio of ideal and Xiaopeng is about 45%, while that of Ulai is relatively high, 66%.

In terms of cash flow, Wei Xiaoli's wallets are all very fat, with cash and cash equivalents of 51.4 billion yuan, 40.1 billion yuan and 55.4 billion yuan respectively, which can take a long time.

Therefore, generally speaking, looking at the financial data alone, the trends of the three are OK, in which the ideal is relatively excellent, while Weilai and Xiaopeng each have their own problems, and Xiaopeng's problem is on the big side.

However, there is a popular saying in the capital markets:

"just looking at financial data to make investments is like driving in the rearview mirror."

More information is needed to find the answer to the question we are looking for.

Next, let's look at the sales figures.

Xiaopeng seems to have outsold itself in the past year (2021.11-2022.11), selling a total of 141078 cars. The ideal sales volume is to hold on to Xiaopeng tightly, selling a total of 139585 cars. The worst seller was Weilai, which sold a total of 127422 cars.

However, according to the monthly data, we can find some problems.

You will find that before July 2022, the sales data of Wei Xiaoli are different, but the fluctuation trend is the same, while after July, Xiaopeng's sales data decreased month by month, and Weilai ideal two companies are growing:

Xiaopeng's sales are only about 3% of those of the other two companies.

There is a saying in the automobile sales circle that "gold, nine and silver" is supposed to be the peak season. What is the abnormal situation of Xiaopeng?

The editorial department of knowing the danger caught the tail of the problem by subdividing the data of each model.

From July to September, the sales of relatively old models such as ES8, ES6 and EC6 showed a downward trend, but the sales of new models such as ET7, ES7 and ET5 gradually increased, and the total car sales showed an upward trend.

Ideally, the old model ideal ONE sales showed a downward trend, while L9, L8 two new models have seen a sharp increase in sales, the total car sales are on the rise.

As for Xiao Peng, the sales of G3, P7, P5 and other old models all show a downward trend. Although the newly launched G9 has an increase in sales, it is a drop in the bucket compared with the old models, resulting in a decline in overall car sales.

At this point, the problem arises:

Why is it that when other new and old products alternate, new products can be made into a popular style, while Xiaopeng's new and old products do not take place?

The editorial department of knowing the danger believes that the high probability is the weakening of the competitive advantage of Xiaopeng automobile products. Next, we analyze the advantages of each product on the sales side.

First of all, Weilai:

① salvage service is used to create a high-end image of the brand.

The ② brand developed from top to bottom, and the first car was an electric supercar, which ran past the Goodwood Speed Festival to become the fastest electric sports car, while running across the New North track and also refreshed the lap time. These things spread the minds of users who are high-end brands.

③ models support power change, and at this stage, the laying of power stations is more mature, while cooperation with the power grid, Sinopec and so on, the network may be more complete in the future, to a certain extent, solve the mileage anxiety of new energy vehicle owners. The power exchange service is very good, there will be bottles of water, glass water, small toys for children, snacks and so on.

④ interior texture, ride comfort and so on are regarded as the first echelon in the new forces of car building, which is worth it in terms of car price.

⑤ intelligent, autopilot and other technological elements are not excellent, but they are good enough.

The second is the ideal:

① also serves as a haystack service, which is used to create a high-end image of the brand.

② is being sold at this stage as an incremental solution, which completely solves the mileage anxiety of new energy vehicle owners.

③, known as "big refrigerator and big color TV", focuses on comfortable household use, although it is ridiculed by many people, but from the actual sales point of view, there are really many people eat this set. This is just like in the early years when people mocked that the Chinese liked the big SUV space, the consumer demand was there, and the people who should buy it would still buy it.

④ interior texture, ride comfort and so on are regarded as the first echelon in the new forces of car building, which is worth it in terms of car price.

⑤ intelligent, autopilot and other technological elements are not excellent, but they are good enough.

Finally, Xiaopeng:

① also creates a good image for the salvage service, but it is relatively weaker than the first two.

② 's car intelligent, self-driving and other technological elements are full, self-driving technology is known as "the strongest in China", the sense of science and technology is the company's main selling point.

The ③ P7 creates a good image of the mid-end and high-end cars. At the same time, the company uses "flying cars", "robot horses" and other high-tech products to further strengthen the company's sense of science and technology.

Although the ④ is a pure electric vehicle, the charging network is relatively mature, and the new G9 supports 800V fast charging technology, which claims that "it can be charged 200km in 5 minutes and can be charged from 10% to 80% in 15 minutes", which solves the mileage anxiety of new energy vehicle owners to a certain extent.

⑤ interior texture, ride comfort and other relatively sufficient, the company's new high-end model G9 interior is generally considered to match the positioning.

After listing their respective sales advantages, we will find that Xiaopeng's product power is at a relative disadvantage, which we elaborate in detail.

Brand image:

Weilai is the most advantageous. After reading the literal explanation in front of you, I believe you can already understand it.

The ideal is moderate, and its first car, the ideal ONE, is priced at about 350000 high-end price, and can be said to be "selling very well", because before the recent launch of the L9 and L8 models, it is ideal that the sales of this model alone can be on a par with the total sales of L9 and L8 (there is a sales data chart above), which is enough to prove that the brand image of its high-end car is more stable.

Xiaopeng, on the other hand, has some vague positioning. Xiaopeng's first mass-produced model is the G3, which comes from a low-end model. The subsequent launch of the P7 is a medium-and high-end model, which has gained a good reputation and brand recognition, but in the subsequent launch of the medium-and low-end model P5, it has lost some word-of-mouth and the high-end image has not been established. this makes the company's recent impact on the high-end market of the G9 model a bit embarrassing. On the other hand, the concepts such as "flying car" are too far from the practical category, and the brand image established by this kind of marketing client is very limited.

In addition, almost all the car commentators who came into contact with the editorial department said, "Xiaopeng's name will definitely affect its impact on the high end, but he refuses to change it."

Therefore, in terms of brand, the editorial department believes that: Weilai > ideal > Xiaopeng.

Mileage anxiety resolution:

At this stage, there is no doubt that the ideal of adding programs is the ideal. Although the ideal will launch a pure electric model next year, it does not mean that the ideal will give up the model of added electric vehicles.

In the middle is the coming of the power change mode, you have to admit that the charging + changing mode is indeed better than the simple charging mode.

Xiaopeng is at a disadvantage and can only be recharged. although the new model G9 supports 800V fast charging, the future model should also support it, but the laying of fast charging piles is still not perfect, and the short-term boost to sales is limited.

Therefore, in terms of solving mileage anxiety, the editorial department thinks: ideal > Weilai > Xiaopeng.

In terms of technology:

Xiaopeng has done the best in car-computer interaction and autopilot, especially in autopilot. In July, he also found a group of car reviewers to test-drive the lidar version of P5. It was very lively inside the circle, but there were no waves outside the circle.

In the middle is the ideal, the new model with AD Max is the world's first NOA navigation-assisted driving (Navigate on Autopilot) product delivered on the Nvidia Orin computing platform.

Relatively weak is Weilai, but it is also making efforts in intelligent driving at this stage, and recently there has been news of cooperation with Tencent in autopilot and high-precision maps. According to people in the industry who have come into contact with the editorial department of the crisis, NOP + has begun small-scale internal testing of the Beta version. this thing is very strong, and it is possible to mass-produce OTA in the first quarter of next year. Weilai has a high-precision map of Orin X platform and Tencent, which may soon compete with Xiaopeng, which is known as the strongest assistant driver.

It is also worth noting that at a time when the NOA industry is becoming more and more mature, the advantages of self-driving, the distance that each car factory can pull apart is very limited. According to people in the industry who are in contact with the editorial department, all brands of high-speed NOA will be launched in the first half of next year. Moreover, due to the reasons of compliance, the difference of each "technical difference" in the intuitive experience of the client is very limited, even can not be reflected.

Therefore, in terms of science and technology, the editorial department of knowing the danger believes that Xiaopeng > ideal ≈ has come, but the gap is weak when it comes to sales.

Generally speaking, it is difficult to judge who is high and who is low, but Xiaopeng's competitiveness at the present stage is weaker than that of the two.

This may be the reason why Xiaopeng's sales have dropped continuously, and its new products can not beat the new products of the other two companies.

At the present stage, Xiaopeng seems to think about a question:

At a time when market users are getting a little "numb" to "smart driving" or "auxiliary driving", what selling points should they come up with to impress users when what they are best at is unable to make a big difference with other peers?

If the new car Xiaopeng plans to launch next year is still in this state, then he may really be eliminated and lose this "electric werewolf killing".

You may think that there are four or five brands in a mature market. Xiaopeng will not be eliminated easily, will it?

He who does not advance loses ground. Behind Xiaopeng, there are brands such as Mengjie, Avita, Nezha (Huawei department or cooperation with Huawei) and other brands, especially Nezhu, which is often on the same screen with Wei Xiaoli when some brokerage research newspapers mention new forces.

Now, in the market, the word "Weihuali" often appears, which no longer contains the word "Xiao" of Xiaopeng.

Is this a bit like the disappearance of Weima in the "four Little Dragons"?

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: ID:BusinessAlert, author: Alex, Big Cake, Editor: big Cake, Special Review: brother neck

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