Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

The decisive battle between the Pampas Eagle and the Gallic Rooster will be staged in more than 30 hours. AI predicts that the winning rate is close, while Argentina is slightly higher.

The Qatar World Cup finals will officially begin on December 18.

Argentina, which is in search of the third title in team history by defending France, is also the "civil war" of two top stars and Paris Saint-Germain teammates Lionel Messi and Mbappe.

Who will win the championship in the face of such a strong opponent?

Well, let's see what AI says!

AI forecast: Argentina has a small probability to beat France. According to the model, the probability of winning between the two teams is very, very close.

Among them, Argentina will take the lead by a very narrow margin, with a victory rate of 35.1%, compared with 35.0% for France.

The overall winning rate is 50.2% in Argentina and 49.8% in France.

In the twilight of the gods, the last dance of the 2022 FIFA World Cup is of extraordinary significance.

This year's World Cup is compared to "the twilight of the gods". This World Cup is likely to be the "last dance" of the superstars in Qatar.

Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Modric, DiMaria, Suarez, Neuer, Levan, Benzema, even Neymar. It's not a list, it's our youth.

Lionel Messi, the man who led Barcelona to four Champions League titles and seven Golden Globes, is missing the Hercules Cup on his honor list.

2014 was the strongest year for the Argentine national team and Lionel Messi's closest to the Hercules Cup.

This photo breaks the hearts of countless fans, and this time the Argentine team, which plays in Qatar, is unprecedentedly United. Lionel Messi is also really integrated into the team system this time.

As the game progressed, more and more people admitted that Messi did show the appearance of the champion.

It can be seen that Messi's 45 shots (shots and opportunities created) in the final contributed 56.3% of Argentina's total shots, almost the same as Maradona's influence on Argentina's 1986 World Cup champion.

The players of this year's Argentine team are generally stronger than famous. Coach Luciano Scaloni has also created a set of tactics that are really suitable for Argentina. In a word, this year's Argentina team is more like a whole than ever before.

However, due to the lack of explosive wingers, Argentina is too dependent on Lionel Messi. Once the Argentine midfielder does not have the advantage, Messi's power will be reduced by half.

Since Maradona in 1986, no country has relied on a player as much as Argentina in the Messi era.

Moreover, Argentina's full-back is weak, the defense is general, especially the physical decline, after the loss of strangling ability, the ability of individual defender is very limited.

If Argentina wants to win, it can't count on Lionel Messi. It needs a younger generation like Enzo, Lautaro and Alvarez to come forward and take the lead.

This popular video of bilibili expresses the aspirations of the fans: "Macy, I don't have a second youth to chase you."

This year's French team is full of superstars and a luxurious lineup. Mbappe's speed is a headache for all teams.

France, with Giroux, Mbappe and Konate, has a big advantage in most positions; and these stars are in their playing years.

Looking back on the previous matches of the French team in this World Cup, we can see that they spent most of their time on defense, and in the face of strong opponents, they often handed over possession of the ball to each other.

However, in the final eight of this World Cup, the side with low possession of the ball won in the end.

Although Messi is the player most closely watched by his opponents, he is in the lead among many offensive indicators in this tournament.

As for the French team, despite their excellent defensive ability, they conceded goals in every game.

We all know that it is the deficiency that determines how far a team can go in the World Cup.

At present, the Frenchman may lack a real core (the core of the French team were Grizmann and Bogba when they won the last World Cup, which Mbappe may not be able to afford this time).

Both Argentina and France are more defensive teams, so it can be speculated that both sides will adopt a more cautious offensive strategy.

Although France's previous record against Argentina was not so good-it won only three of the 12 matches and lost two of the three World Cup matches. But the epic 4-3 victory in the last World Cup put Deschamps's team on the road to winning the title.

In fact, France have won seven World Cup knockout games in a row, two games less than Brazil's record, but they are likely to become the third team to defend their title after Brazil in 1962 and Italy in 1938.

Paris Civil War: Messi vs. Mbappe in this game, Messi is still the key to Argentina's victory.

In the top five leagues of the Champions League this season, no one is more threatening than Lionel Messi, averaging 1.2 goals every 90 minutes without penalties.

He has five goals and three assists in this game, including a beautiful assist for Alvarez in the last game against Croatia.

So far, the 35-year-old has scored a record 19 goals in his World Cup career.

In this World Cup, Messi participated in Argentina's 43 opening shots, more than twice as many as any other player except de Paolo (26). Mbappe is the only one who has made a considerable contribution.

Lionel Messi is likely to score another goal in the final, which will make him the first player ever to score in every round of a single World Cup.

According to AI's prediction, Messi will take advantage of the gap left by Hern á ndez and then work with Alvarez to break through Varane and Konatai's defense.

As Lionel Messi's teammate in Paris Saint-Germain, the strength of France's Mbappe should not be underestimated.

After all, he has already won the World Cup once.

As Mbappe scored a goal in the previous final against Croatia, if he can score another goal this time, he will become the youngest player to score in many finals at the age of 23.

Meanwhile, Mbappe and Grizman both have a chance to be the fifth person to score in two finals and the second (after Watts in 1958 and 1962) to score two goals in a row.

Sports analysis has entered the AI era. Over the past decade, thanks to tracking data, the artificial intelligence revolution in sports has focused on three key areas:

Collect more in-depth data using computer vision or wearable devices

Use tracking data for more in-depth type analysis

Make a more in-depth prediction to obtain better prediction results

For example, in this World Cup, we can use AI to analyze how players control the ball in the face of pressure. At the same time, we can dynamically assign pressure levels to the three opposing players closest to the ball throughout the game, and then determine the overall stress level of ball possession players.

Lionel Messi, for example, was under 259 high pressure while holding the ball-45 more than any other player, and his average score of 40.9 per 90 minutes was higher than any player who played for at least 300 minutes.

Stats Perform's AI prediction model is based on the world's richest sports database and can be used to evaluate thousands of data points, as well as season and tournament records spanning decades of history. The model is adjusted and transformed through various data inputs:

Venue and conditions of the competition

Whether it has home court advantage, is it the regular season or playoffs, and what time of day is the game played?

Specific data of the team

The team's strengths and weaknesses, historical performance, recent performance

Specific data of players

Players' strengths and weaknesses, history and recent performance

Competition situation

Current score, remaining time, regular time or overtime

The main purpose of data collection is to digitally reproduce the data after the game, so we need to know what happened (that is, what the end result is). How it happened (that is, describing the event that led to the result) and how it was accomplished (that is, how the event was executed).

The use of high-level box-score statistics can be a good summary of a 90-minute football game, such as the number of shots by each team, the distribution of possession, which team has more corners, more fouls and so on.

Event data, which provides additional background information at critical moments during the game, has more details than box-score.

Similarly, the spatial data of the game (that is, the spatial position of the player) can provide visual reconstruction of key events in the game, such as how a particular goal is scored. Although this is different from watching a video, it is a fast, digital view of real-world games that can be rebuilt in a matter of seconds.

Tracking data is the most detailed data captured in the sports field so far.

AI can obtain the data of individual players and football by watching a large number of video recordings, thus mapping their positions to virtual stadiums. To do this, the responsible CV model requires the following three steps:

Convert the pixels in the video into points that represent the trajectory of the player and the ball for visualization.

The trajectory of a point in a certain period of time can be mapped to semantic events in motion (such as shooting).

From the identified events, expected indicators can be derived to explain the performance of players in a particular event (that is, expected goals).

Data analysis, however, the data just now can not be directly used for competition analysis.

On the one hand, the team's strategy and formation are hidden in those data points; on the other hand, because the players' positions on the field are constantly changing, the tracking data is full of noise.

As a result, the team developed a way to better visualize and interpret tracking data-"average formation".

As a result, we can analyze how the structure of the team evolves when attacking or defending, or how the formation is compared under different backgrounds, situations or game styles.

While the game is in progress, AI can also show the average action of the game while showing the live game represented by dots on the course map.

To put it simply, show the home team in blue, the visiting team in red, and the "third team" in white to show how other teams usually deal with the same situation.

In addition, the coach can enter the tactics he wants to try, and then let AI simulate the corresponding execution results.

Written in the dusk of the last gods, we are all remnants of the old era.

In more than 30 hours, we will have the peak battle between Argentina and France.

Some people say: there is no Lionel Messi after the World Cup in Qatar, this time, it is the last king's last song. Will he hold the Hercules Cup as he wishes?

Can the French team defend the title again?

Now that the atmosphere of the Franco-Arab war is in place, let's wait and see!

Reference:

Https://theanalyst.com/eu/2022/12/argentina-vs-france-fifa-world-cup-2022-prediction-and-match-preview/

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: Xin Zhiyuan (ID:AI_era), editor: sleepy Aeneas

Welcome to subscribe "Shulou Technology Information " to get latest news, interesting things and hot topics in the IT industry, and controls the hottest and latest Internet news, technology news and IT industry trends.