Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

2022 is coming to an end and 2023 is coming.

Affected by the epidemic, various industries are having a hard time, and the new energy vehicle industry is no exception, which seems hot, but unwittingly, it will enter the industry reshuffle period.

Looking back on 2022, in a good situation, new energy car companies have begun to divide. The new energy car company of the traditional car company rises in one fell swoop, and the new power has been lonely, Wei Xiaoli's growth rate has slowed down, and Xiaopeng's sales volume has dropped more seriously. However, the second echelon of new forces, such as Cyrus and Nezha, are growing rapidly. Brands such as Hengchi have lost their first-mover advantage.

Looking forward to 2023, the new energy vehicle industry will enter the finals and become more inward. According to the data alone, there will be about 100 new energy vehicles on the market in China in 2023, more than 70 in 2022. Moreover, the growth rate of new energy vehicles in 2023 will slow to 40% from more than 90% in 2022. In addition, the decline of subsidies, difficulties in financing, and persistent losses will prompt the new energy vehicle industry to rapidly increase its concentration from next year.

As early as 2019, Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric vehicle Association of 100 people, said that the era of the big waves to clean up the sand is approaching, and some new car-building forces will be eliminated. However, looking forward to 2023, who is the hero and who will end, it is still difficult to make a clear conclusion.

This paper attempts to explain three problems:

What is the development of the new energy vehicle industry in 1.2022?

What will happen to the "internal volume" of the new energy automobile industry in 2.2023?

3. In order to get through the "reshuffle period of new energy vehicles", what measures do the car companies have?

2022, the differentiation of automobile enterprises is about to pass. Reviewing the development of new energy vehicles in this year, the overall situation is very good.

Since the beginning of this year, the sales of new energy vehicles in China have continued the high growth rate before. In the first three quarters, the sales of new energy vehicles in China increased by 110% compared with the same period last year, reaching 4.567 million units, far exceeding the total sales in 2021. Sales for the whole year are expected to exceed 6 million, a record high.

The penetration of new energy vehicles is also rising rapidly. According to the Federation of passengers, in September 2022, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has reached 31.8%. Previously, BYD founder Wang Chuanfu had predicted that the penetration rate would reach 35% by the end of the year.

In addition, according to the China Automobile Association, in the first three quarters of 2022, the export of new energy vehicles was 389000, more than double that of the same period last year.

However, in a good situation, the differentiation between car companies is very serious.

First of all, with the rise of new energy car companies of traditional car companies, the growth rate of Wei Xiaoli has slowed down.

In terms of sales in the first three quarters, according to the FIFA data, among the top three, BYD and SAIC GM Wuling are traditional car companies, while Tesla China ranks third. Among the new forces such as Wei Xiaoli, only Xiaopeng entered the top 10 in sales.

And October's new energy vehicle sales TOP10 ranking shows that Weilai stepped on the line into the list, Xiaopeng, ideal are outside the list. On the contrary, the new energy car company of the traditional car company occupies six seats in the top 10, and sweeps the top five. The situation of the new energy model TOP10 is even more extreme, and all the models on the list are new energy vehicle brands of traditional car companies.

At present, the November sales announced by the major car companies also show that the sales of the new energy vehicle companies of the traditional car companies are growing rapidly.

The chart is wrong. Xiaopeng's growth rate should be-62.78%. Polar krypton, owned by Geely, a traditional car company, delivered more than 10,000 vehicles in November, reaching 11011, an increase of 447.3% from a year earlier, and an astonishing 4985% growth in October. The November sales of GAC Ean is slightly equal to the sum of the delivery of Weilai and ideal. Wei Xiaoli's growth rate was not very satisfactory in November, and the highest growth rate was only 30.34%. Instead of increasing, Xiaopeng's sales decreased, and the decline expanded, falling by 62.78%. In October, Xiaopeng's sales fell by 50%.

Secondly, the second generation of new forces such as Nezha and Zero have developed rapidly.

Nezha sold 15072 vehicles in November and delivered more than 10,000 for seven months in a row. From January to November, the cumulative sales of Nashi reached 144278, only 5722 short of the milestone of 150000 annual sales.

(screenshot on Nahan Automobile Wechat official account) from January to November, the cumulative sales of zero-running cars exceeded 100000, to 102675, an increase of 177% over the same period last year, which is faster than that of Najiao and Ian, and also much higher than that of Wei Xiaoli.

According to the cumulative sales data of new energy car companies from January to November, the sales growth of the new energy car companies of traditional car companies, such as Nezha and Zero run, has reached more than 100%, while that of Wei Xiaoli has not exceeded 50%.

Finally, previously cross-bank start-up new energy car companies, such as Hengchi, owned by Evergrande, and Faraday founded by Jia Yueting, have been difficult to see their development advantages.

At present, the first 100 vehicles of Hengchi 5 have been delivered, but the owners evaluate the polarization. Although Faraday entered the industry earlier in the future, the delivery time of the whole vehicle has been delayed again and again, and the ticket has been skipped four times.

Former Faraday employees told short seller J Capital Research that many of Faraday's future technologies were the most advanced in 2018 but are now lagging behind. The vast majority of future Faraday patent applications shown in Google's patent database were filed in 2015 and 2016, and there have been no new applications after 2018.

In 2023, the competition will be more fierce. In 2022, this serious differentiation of new energy vehicle companies is mainly reflected in the transformation of old and new forces, and the reason behind it comes from the choice of consumers. In terms of car prices, in addition to extreme krypton, the new energy models of traditional car companies, as well as the new power II generation, are basically priced below 300000, with the largest number of models in the range of 10-200000. On the other hand, Wei Xiaoli's price setting is the opposite, and the prices of most new models this year have gone up further. For example, the price of Weilai ES7, ideal L9, Xiaopeng G9 and so on are all above 300000.

According to the survey data of Ai Media Consulting, consumers intend to buy new energy vehicles at a price of 10-200000, accounting for 44.5%. Wei Xiaoli's current car prices are obviously unable to meet the needs of most consumers.

With reference to the development history of fuel vehicles, changes in consumer demand affect the supply-side price product strategy or production technology innovation of the automobile industry. In each round of changes, the manufacturers who undertake the demand will rise.

Specifically, when fuel vehicles were born, they were luxury accessories for the rich, and the performance-to-price ratio was not important, but then they would gradually move towards the mass consumer market. The mass user group pursues the ultimate performance-to-price ratio, and the marginal stimulus of price change to sales volume is the most obvious. Ford's Model T car is rising on the basis of extreme performance-price ratio.

China's new energy vehicle market also shows this trend. Prior to this, consumers focused on fresh taste and product uniqueness, ideal insight into the group of dads, Weilai's ultimate service, and Xiaopeng's technological success, all of which successfully attracted consumers' attention, and consumers were willing to pay for the taste. But at present, with the continuous improvement of penetration, China's new energy vehicle industry has entered the mass consumer market stage. According to the data of the Federation of passengers, new energy vehicles have become the first choice for 1x4 consumers. Therefore, the ultimate performance-to-price ratio is the key to competition.

This tests the comprehensive ability of supply chain management, manufacturing and capacity management of each automobile company. Compared with Wei Xiaoli, traditional car companies have accumulated more in this respect, such as BYD's vertically integrated management, which "produces everything except tires and glass". And the current rise of the new power second generation, the greatest competitiveness is also the cost advantage, such as Nashi, by virtue of the ultimate performance-to-price ratio has accumulated a lot of users and word of mouth.

Wei Xiaoli is not only lower than the new energy car companies in the current comprehensive capacity competition, but also in a state of loss, but also facing an increasingly difficult financing environment, so it is difficult to invest heavily in the supply chain to reduce costs and improve performance-to-price ratio.

In the next 2023, subsidies are about to decline and battery costs are still rising. what will happen to the development of these new energy car companies in this new energy vehicle market that is from policy-driven to market-driven?

According to Schumpeter, the originator of "innovation theory", there are two kinds of innovation, Schumpeter Ⅰ innovation and Ⅱ innovation. Schumpeter Ⅰ innovation "is created by bold attempts by new entrepreneurs who are capable and lucky enough to replace existing companies in the industry". New forces such as Li Bin, he Xiaopeng and Li Xiang, dominated by "new entrepreneurs", such as Wei Xiaoli, can be attributed to this innovation. They entered the automobile market in one fell swoop with the innovative form of new energy vehicles, and they also had the possibility to replace traditional car companies.

Another extreme type of innovation is Schumpeter Ⅱ innovation, which "mainly comes from large enterprises, which accumulate knowledge that is difficult to imitate in specific areas, and thus gain technological advantages that are sustainable and self-propagating". The new energy automobile companies of traditional car companies mostly belong to this kind of innovation.

For the future, Schumpeter theory draws a conclusion: often, new entrants can not provide consumers with the products they need, so "in the army of new entrants, only a few special cases can achieve good performance." Correspondingly, the industry has also spread the view that "the new energy vehicle industry has entered the reshuffle period in 2023".

In addition, according to a recent survey by China Automobile News, car dealers closest to consumers generally believe that the new energy vehicle market is volatile, there are many brands, and most of them are in a state of loss, and whether some brands are sustainable in the future should be called into question.

Subversive opportunity to face the crisis of "reshuffle", Wei Xiaoli has seen the changes in the market and began to cut into the mass consumer market. At the earnings meeting in the third quarter of 2022, he Xiaopeng said that Xiaopeng will launch a new medium-sized SUV model priced in the 20-300000 range in mid-2023. Moreover, he Xiaopeng said sales are expected to exceed the company's current models.

Ideally, at the previous earnings report in the first quarter of 2022, Li Xiang disclosed the product plan that the future product would cover the market range of 20-300000 yuan and launch a popular style product every 100000 yuan.

The middle-and low-end brand electric vehicle products of Lulai have entered a critical stage of research and development and are scheduled to land in 2024. Among them, the brand code-named ALPS will enter the range of 15-300000 yuan, while the "firefly" will reach the range of 10-200000 yuan.

In addition, China's new energy car companies, including traditional car companies and new forces, are increasing their size in overseas markets, which will also become a way for some car companies to solve the problems in the domestic market. According to the research report of Western Securities, it is estimated that the export volume of new energy vehicles in 2023 will reach 1.34 million, and its market scale is equivalent to the annual sales of China's new power and the second generation of new power car enterprises. The opportunity to go out to sea, if effectively used, can help some car companies to solve the crisis of "reshuffle".

For example, Aichi, which focuses on overseas markets, has recently signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Phoenix Electric vehicle Co., Ltd., headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, covering a procurement plan for a total of 150000 new energy vehicles, which has been described by the media as the largest overseas cooperation plan of the new power of Chinese car-making. Aichi sold only 3208 cars from January to September this year, which is relatively small. However, if this cooperation plan is effectively implemented, it may enable it to develop rapidly in the future "volume".

In addition to the need to make efforts in product strategy and sales strategy, in 2023, for new energy car companies, we need to pay attention to a key point, that is, the intelligent second half.

At present, there is a consensus at the industry level that cars with high-level intelligent driving functions will be commercialized on a large scale in 2023. Xia Yiping, CEO of Jidu Automobile, believes that 2023 will be the first year of automobile intelligent competition. Prior to this, Wei Xiaoli and other current intelligent driving, do not have a large area of landing scene, many users can not really realize its advantages, so did not bring the corresponding sales. In 2023, not only will this state change, but also become the decisive point of competition.

Xia Yiping said that intelligence will be different from the process cycle of motorization. once intelligence begins to land, if a car company has a highly cost-effective solution, it will siphon all dividends in the short term. and also firmly grasp the initiative to promote network connection and sharing in the future. This will be a subversive opportunity for new energy car companies, including Tesla.

Ji Xuehong, a professor and director of the Automotive Industry Innovation Research Center of the Northern University of Technology, also believes that intelligence is not only a restructuring of the domestic car market, but also related to the survival of car companies.

Compared with the new energy car companies of traditional car companies, new forces such as Wei Xiaoli are considered to have the upper hand in intelligence, while the second generation of new forces, such as Selis, have Huawei's deep intelligence capabilities, which should not be underestimated.

The new energy automobile company of the traditional car company is also beginning to make up for the deficiency of intelligence. Including Geely, Great Wall, Guangzhou Automobile and other traditional car companies, through the way of internal incubation, layout in the intelligent field to empower the "second generation". Moreover, through joint research with Huawei, Tencent and other technology companies, they continue to narrow the gap with the new forces in intelligence.

Therefore, in this round of reshuffle, who will have the last laugh, it is impossible to give a final conclusion.

However, Cheng Xiangqi, chief analyst of Citic Construction Investment Automotive Industry, predicted that "the reshuffle period will not be too long." He predicts that "from the second half of 2023 to 2024, the new energy vehicle market will usher in a rising cycle of capital and industrial development. With the enhancement of the attribute of automobile consumer goods, its product definition will become more complicated." therefore, the advantages and barriers of the head enterprise will be more perfect. "

As for the situation of the head enterprise in the future, it can be seen in Lei Jun's forecast. Before Xiaomi entered the automobile business in 2021, it had already conducted in-depth research on the electric vehicle industry. Lei Jun believes that more than 80% of the market share of new energy vehicles will be concentrated in the top five global brands.

Full-text reference

[1] Innovation and Evolution of High-tech Industry: based on History-friendly Model, Machinery Industry Press

[2] "Automotive Industry Strategy in 2023: grasp Schumpeter's Innovation and win over the structured Market", Guoyuan Securities

[3] "Automotive Industry Research and 2023 Strategy:" Intelligent Control, Electric Future "accelerated Development", China Merchants Securities

[4] "2023 Automotive Industry Strategy report: electric Breakthrough Smart driver New Life", Western Securities

[5] report on consumption trend Monitoring and case study of Global and Chinese New Energy vehicle Industry in 2022-2023

[6] "Jia Yueting's" one kick at the door ", why haven't you entered after playing for eight years? "Snow Leopard car observation

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: che Bai think Tank (ID:EV100_Plus), author: Chen Zhongshan, Editor: a Feng, typesetting: fat Tiger

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