Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

CTOnews.com, December 8, according to TrendForce Jibang Consulting Research, thanks to the demand for new iPhone phones to drive the momentum of pulling goods in Apple's supply chain, the output value of the top 10 fabs in the third quarter reached 35.21 billion US dollars, an increase of 6 percent from the previous quarter. However, the overall global economic performance is weak, high inflation and the epidemic continue to impact consumer market confidence, leading to a sluggish season in the second half of the year, delaying inventory demolitions, and deepening customers' revision of orders for foundry foundry industrials. revenue is expected to fall in the fourth quarter, officially ending the quarterly growth of the foundry industry in the past two years.

IPhone orders have boosted the market share of TSMC, with the market share of the top five companies totaling nearly 90%

Judging from the revenue and market share of each company in the third quarter, the combined market share of the top five companies led by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), Samsung (Samsung), United Power (UMC), GlobalFoundries (GlobalFoundries) and SMIC (SMIC) rose to 89.6%. The most direct impact faced by most companies is the postponement of customer stock or the substantial revision of consumer orders. TSMC alone brought strong reserve momentum with the new iPhone main chip, and its revenue in the third quarter reached US $20.16 billion, an increase of 11.1% compared with the previous quarter. The proportion of revenue from advanced processes below 7nm (including) continued to grow to 54%, driving TSMC's market share to 56.1% in the third quarter. On the contrary, while Samsung's revenue also benefited from an increase in the kinetic energy of spare parts for some new iPhone aircraft, Samsung's revenue fell 0.1% month-on-month and its market share fell to 15.5% due to a weaker won, CTOnews.com learned.

UMC's third-quarter revenue rose 1.3 per cent from the previous quarter to $2.48 billion, thanks to wafers with higher-priced processes contributed by new 28nm, and a stronger dollar. On the other hand, the grid core increased the overall shipments of wafers by 1%, and the average sales unit price and product mix continued to be optimized. Revenue in the third quarter reached US $2.07 billion, an increase of 4.1% from the previous quarter, and capacity utilization was stable above 90% high water level. SMIC, which accounts for a high proportion of consumer products, is dominated by the elimination of inventory by relevant customers, and revenue from all terminal applications is more convergent than in the second quarter, especially in the smartphone and consumer electronics fields. however, the decline in wafer shipments offset the product mix and average sales unit price optimization, and revenue in the third quarter rose 0.2% from the previous quarter to $1.91 billion. Compared with other wafer foundry industrialists who successively revised their capital expenditure plans in response to changes in market conditions and equipment delivery dates, SMIC bucked the trend by raising capital expenditure to $6.6 billion in 2022, an increase of 32%. Advance payment for equipment at three new plants in Shenzhen, Beijing and Shanghai is planned ahead of schedule to cope with external risks.

In the sixth to tenth place in the third quarter, only Huahong Group (HuaHong Group) and High Tower (Tower) saw revenue growth, while PSMC, World Advanced (VIS) and Crystal Integration (Nexchip) all declined. Among them, the revenue of Jinghe Integration fell the most by 22.5% month-on-quarter in the third quarter, about US $370 million, mainly because panel-driven IC customers, including Novatek, Chipone, Ilitek and other customers, could not bear the inventory pressure, while at the same time expanding new production capacity, resulting in unsustainable capacity utilization in the third quarter and fell to 805.85%.

Sharp revision of consumer orders deepens the decline in revenue in the fourth quarter

All manufacturers are faced with a slower-than-expected rate of elimination of consumer electronic products, and demand does not pick up in the short term. Customers have made more efforts to cut down on wafer generation industrialists' consumer products, which in turn affects the decline in wafer shipments and capacity utilization. Therefore, TrendForce Group Consulting expects that in the fourth quarter, the revenue growth of most of the top 10 wafer generation industrialists will converge or decline, while this wave of chopping orders will also affect leading manufacturers TSMC. The correction of TSMC's 7/6nm orders is more severe than expected, but as revenue is still supported by 5/4nm orders, the expected quarterly increase will converge significantly, and revenue in the fourth quarter may be flat in the third quarter without a sharp recession.

In terms of capacity utilization, although UMC actively converted capacity to automotive and industrial control-related products in the fourth quarter, it is still difficult to resist the capacity vacancy released by consumer products, and it is expected that capacity utilization will decline by 10%. Most of the eight-inch capacity of grid core failed to sign long-term contract protection, and capacity utilization began to loose. Shanghai Huali, which is owned by Huahong Group, is the 55nm process production and consumption grade MCU, WiFi and CIS, and capacity utilization has also begun to decline. Due to continuous repair orders from logical OEM customers such as CIS and DDI, the utilization rate of 8-inch and 12-inch capacity in the fourth quarter will drop to 60% and 70% respectively, while the utilization rate of advanced capacity in the world will drop to about 70%. Crystal integration drives IC, consumer PMIC and CIS all have the risk of cutting orders, while other processes are not yet mature and difficult to convert, and capacity utilization has dropped to 50% 55%.

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