Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

In early May 2010, 10 BYD E6 taxis took to the streets of Shenzhen for trial operation, and China ushered in the first batch of pure electric taxis.

The official range of the E6 is 350 km, but according to feedback from taxi drivers at the time, the actual mileage is only between 250 and 280 km.

Although the performance is completely crushed by the fuel car, its price is as high as 300000 yuan and the BBA's "34C" level. Even if the 60,000 yuan of state subsidy and 60,000 yuan of Shenzhen land subsidy are removed, it will still be sold for 180000 yuan.

It is said that the first individual owner of this car was the then secretary of the Shenzhen Municipal CPC Committee. This shows the national and local determination to promote new energy vehicles.

It is no exaggeration to say that the survival of BYD E6 and even all new energy vehicles in the same period is based on policy guidance and support.

In 2009, the Ministry of Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments jointly launched the "Ten cities Thousand vehicles Project".

It is intended to develop 10 cities every year through subsidies, with each city launching 1000 new energy vehicles for demonstration operation, mainly related to urban public transport and municipal services.

The first batch of cities selected for the project are 13. In addition to Shenzhen, another city on the list, Beijing, followed the pace and became the second city to operate pure electric taxis.

In March 2011, the first batch of pure electric taxis in Beijing appeared on the streets of Yanqing. This is the Midi EV produced by BAIC Futian.

Although the car was discontinued as early as 2015, it can still be seen occasionally in the outer suburbs of Beijing, with the longest bike mileage exceeding 400000 kilometers.

Compared with E6, the parameters of Midi EV are weaker.

The price of Midi EV is 150000 before subsidy, and the subsidy is nearly 100000 (state subsidy + land subsidy). Officials claim that the car can travel at a uniform speed of 200 kilometers, but in actual operation, the range is only about 110 kilometers, with a regular rest of eight hours a day to recharge.

Short operating time means that drivers earn less money. In order to encourage drivers to use Midi EV, taxi companies even give drivers a small amount of money.

"tanker drivers pay 2700 yuan a month to the company, while Mindi EV drivers only pay 1000 yuan a month, and the company will also give them a subsidy of 1080 yuan. this is equivalent to 80 yuan a month for them." Taxi chauffeur always recalls.

Coincidentally, Zhongtai Longyue is in Hangzhou; Dongfeng Nissan leaf is in Dalian; SAIC Roewe is in Shanghai.

This kind of crazy milk new energy vehicles have been staged one after another, which has made new energy taxis take root in more than 20 cities, ignited a spark and opened the prelude to a decade of state subsidies.

Up to now, the state has determined to spend as much as 148.659 billion yuan in subsidies for new energy vehicles, and a total of 3.1321 million new energy vehicles have been subsidized.

Of course, that's not all. Subsidies for the last two years have not yet been approved, and in previous years, there have been many grants that have yet to be approved.

It is estimated that when all the subsidies are approved, the total amount of state subsidies is expected to exceed 200 billion yuan.

During this period, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China increased from 259 in 2009 to 2.989 million last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales reached 4.432 million vehicles, with a penetration rate approaching 30 per cent.

200 billion, made up the vigorous vitality of new energy vehicles, but the process is also quite tortuous.

NO.1 [start, do it quickly] "this year can be called the first year of the privatization of electric vehicles."

In the spring of 2014, Ouyang Minggao, then head of the overall expert group of the national 863 major project on energy conservation and new energy vehicles, expressed this view.

Today, it illustrates two facts of the new energy industry at that time:

The first is the policy "expectation".

Since 2013, various policies have been more inclined to private purchase of new energy vehicles, and under the strong policy guidance, traditional automobile companies have also declared their position to follow.

The second fact is that although the subsidy program for thousands of vehicles in ten cities has been going on for several years, the response from private consumers is still lukewarm, waiting to be really pried.

In fact, as early as 2010, the state issued a notice on the pilot subsidy for private purchase of new energy vehicles.

BYD F3DM is one of the first models to be listed on the national subsidy list of new energy. it was officially sold to individual users on the eve of the start of state subsidy for new energy in March 2010.

As a plug-in hybrid car, F3DM can get 60, 000 yuan of state subsidy and 20, 000 yuan of Shenzhen land subsidy in that year.

The subsidy of 80,000 yuan accounts for more than half of the selling price of the whole vehicle. But the car sold less than 400 units in the two years since it went on sale.

Almost at the same time, Chery A1 New Energy, Zhongtai 5800EV and other models are also the same bleak.

In short, there are very few individual users who are willing to buy new energy vehicles.

In order to accelerate the penetration of new energy vehicles in the private market, a series of national and local policies were launched in 2013.

The notice on continuing the Promotion and Application of New Energy vehicles issued in 2013 began to encourage individuals to buy new energy vehicles on a large scale and clearly defined the criteria for subsidies:

Pure electric passenger cars are given subsidies ranging from 35000 yuan to 60,000 yuan according to pure electric mileage, and plug-in hybrid vehicles with a pure electric range of more than 50 kilometers can also enjoy a subsidy of 35000 yuan.

Also since 2013, Beijing has implemented separate lottery for new energy passenger vehicles and increased the quota share of new energy indicators year by year. New energy has become a shortcut to get the license plate of Beijing motor vehicles.

Shanghai has begun to implement a free licensing policy for new energy vehicles; first-tier cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen also support new energy vehicles in terms of license plates and traffic restrictions.

The next year, new energy vehicles ushered in another major benefit-exemption from purchase tax.

……

At the same time, more traditional automobile companies have decided to incorporate new energy planning into the group's development plan:

In 2014, Chen Hong, chairman of SAIC, put forward the new four modernizations of the automobile industry for the first time; in 2015, Geely put forward the 1.0 version of "two Blue Geely actions"; Changan Automobile released the "Ten-year Strategic Plan for New Energy vehicles"....

While traditional car companies judge how to bet, a new car-building force in China's automobile industry is budding.

In 2013, Tesla sold 2909 new cars in his first full sales year in China. In 2014, that number soared to 24076, an increase of nearly tenfold.

A catfish began to wander frantically in China's new energy car market, giving birth to "Wei Xiaoli" and other intelligent new energy car companies with Internet genes, bringing new vitality to the market.

It is worth mentioning that in that year, the central and eastern part of China ushered in the most serious haze pollution in history. Beijing, in particular, has heavy pollution on average one day a week.

Standing on his balcony and looking out of the window at haze, Li Bin came up with the idea of creating Lulai Motor.

A head of an auto company once sighed: "there has never been a year like 2013 that makes people miss the blue sky and white clouds so much and place such high hopes on new energy vehicles."

Urged by many parties, the market reacted:

In terms of sales, from 2013 to 2015, the annual sales of new energy vehicles in China soared from 18000 to 331100, ushering in the first blowout period.

But it looks like burning cooking oil and blooming flowers, but as anyone who has experienced this period knows, only a very small number of these cars have been sold to individual users. And in addition to the attitude of consumers, the true attitude of most traditional car companies is to wait and see.

A number of senior Geely executives have expressed to the auto industry that the greater significance of "Blue Geely 1.0" is to respond to policies, and there is a huge controversy within the company over the route of new energy.

In 2015, "radical reformers" within Geely proposed to be a vast platform to support pure electric cars, but senior executives hesitated. Therefore, the research and development of the vast platform was not launched until 2017, and when it was officially launched in 2020, the development of new energy vehicles has entered another stage.

Compared with Geely, Great Wall Motor proposed to be a "follower" in its early days. In the initial stage of new energy vehicles, Wei Jianjun has always had reservations.

It is the new power side, on the new energy track bet all the money, but at that time has not yet become a climate, can only be regarded as the choice of a small number of early adopters.

The final result is that under the game of policy support and internal reform, most of the traditional car companies choose the taxi and minicar market to "try the bull's knife", but the investment in the real popular market is limited, and the products are not attractive to mainstream consumers.

At the same time, a huge hidden danger is also quietly growing.

NO.2 [vanishing new energy vehicles, and rectifying chaos] in 2016, a "summary table of fraudulent and illegal compensation by domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers", which pushed the fraud scandal of new energy vehicles to the best part.

The "Summary Table" counted 93 new energy vehicle manufacturing enterprises, of which 72 were involved in illegal fraudulent compensation, involving a total of 76374 vehicles and 9.27 billion of the amount of compensation. Even FAW, Dongfeng, BAIC, BYD, Geely, Chery and other mainstream car companies are among them.

The shared car "graveyard" is one of the "splendid scenes" left by new energy passenger cars.

Enterprises use very low costs, step on the standard line of subsidies to produce cars, and then sell to their own timeshare rental car companies, to swindle the price difference between costs and subsidies. This was a routine operation at that time.

Condi, which was once 50% owned by Geely and jokingly called the first generation of players of "legalization of the elderly scooter", is a typical representative.

Since its establishment in 2013, most of the cars produced by Condi have been sold to shared car companies such as left, Middle and right Electric vehicle Service Co., Ltd., Ningbo small Times New Energy vehicle sales and Service Co., Ltd., founded by the company's major shareholders Deng Yu, Shi Miaoguo and others.

"they went for subsidies in the first place." A car dealer who has worked for many years said. "according to the standards at that time, Condi could get a state subsidy of 50,000 yuan per electric car, which could completely cover the production cost, and the local subsidy of tens of thousands of yuan was pure profit, easily earning more than 100 million yuan a year, which was much more than selling cars."

Turning the left hand over the right hand is still a "conscientious" operation.

"unlike every engine of a fuel car, the battery system does not have a verifiable logo and can be reused. So some cars can apply for another round of subsidies by removing their batteries and replacing their bodies." Said a person from a car company.

In this way, every year, a large number of new energy vehicles "disappear out of thin air" and are sold back and forth several times.

Of course, compared with passenger cars, the fraudulent compensation of passenger cars can only be regarded as a trifle.

In September 2016, the Ministry of Finance exposed the fraudulent compensation activities of five bus companies, including Suzhou Jim West bus, Shenzhen Wuzhou Dragon Automobile, and QiruiWanda Guizhou bus, involving a total amount of 1 billion yuan.

In order to plug loopholes in car-sharing cemeteries, the state issued a new regulation in January 2017:

New energy vehicles purchased by non-private users have a cumulative mileage of more than 30,000 km to receive state subsidy, and the standard was adjusted to 20,000 km in two years in June 2018.

This is also the reason why Tesla issued a notice of replacement payment to non-private car owners who did not meet the mileage standard in June this year.

In addition, since 2016, the amount of state subsidized bicycles for new energy vehicles has been gradually reduced, while the subsidy threshold continues to rise.

In 2018, the implementation plan of the subsidy standard is further refined, adding the mass energy density and energy consumption level of the battery system to the subsidy assessment standard, so as to encourage technological breakthroughs.

From 2017 to 2020, the average bicycle subsidy decreased successively, which was 67300 yuan, 50400 yuan, 37400 yuan and 23000 yuan respectively.

At the same time, the sales of new energy vehicles are increasing year by year. By 2020, the sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 1.37 million, with a penetration rate of 5.4%.

After the clean-up of the fraud and chaos, the development of the industry gradually turned to two-wheel drive of policy and market, and the forces of the market slowly gained the upper hand.

In this transformation, the new forces of car building have made an extremely important contribution.

"the new forces have done a good job in recent years, creating a demand range. Traditional car companies did not have a bottom and did not dare to invest heavily, but now they still have the ability to catch up with the trend." Said Li Feng, an executive of traditional car companies who has experienced the new energy car-building movement for several years.

We have to admit that in the entrepreneurial wave of new forces, there are countless cannon fodder and negative examples.

Cannon fodder, like Boxun cars. Founder Huang Ximing, from a traditional car company, is rigorous and pragmatic. At the beginning, the heavy assets were invested in R & D and production base, which lengthened the R & D cycle infinitely, but at the same time, it was not good at storytelling, and finally the capital chain broke and failed.

According to the evaluation of the industry, it is as if the person who was supposed to be the CTO of the car company was forced to sit on the position of the CEO of the enterprise.

Compared with the too honest Boxun, the new power of drawing pancakes is more offensive.

For example, Sai Lin, with a big cake with "civilian sports cars" painted, drove the press conference to the Bird's Nest, burned 6 billion and sold more than 30 cars. Chairman Wang Xiaolin ran away with money, and was called "the second Jia Yueting who dared not return home."

Most of the new forces that have lived to this day have experienced the darkest moments.

In 2019, losses, layoffs, lack of money and other difficulties surrounded Li Bin, making him the "worst of the year". He Xiaopeng, who was also on the verge of collapse, and Li Bin even proposed a merger of the two companies.

These are familiar legends of rivers and lakes. No matter how tortuous the process is, in the end, someone survived.

And as Li Feng said, the success of new forces such as Tesla and Wei Xiaoli proves that apart from policy, there is also a demand in the market that is completely different from traditional fuel cars.

Therefore, the traditional car companies, which saw the opportunity, also began to look away from the "legitimate old man music", such as Zhidou, Kandi, and Mercedes-Benz, and regarded new energy vehicles as a real strategy for the future.

After the failure of Operation Blue Geely 1. 0, the Geely 2025 Project, supported by the CMA architecture and vast platform, looks a lot more reliable.

Even the Great Wall, which is conservative in its new energy strategy, has "woken up" and proposed to share 80 per cent of the 4 million vehicles in 2025.

Geometry, Euler, Polar Krypton, Lantu, Deep Blue, Ian and other new brands that have escaped from traditional car companies have begun to catch up, and have shown the attraction of not losing new forces this year.

The new energy track has become a more and more definite future direction for the industry, but fuel cars have the smell of a thing of the past. It seems that the history of subsidies for more than a decade has indeed reached the time of successful retirement, and of course there are still concessions such as purchase tax.

However, when the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is close to 30%, the real wave of "privatization" begins, and for car companies, the market has come to a time of more fierce competition.

NO.3 [post-subsidy era, starting from grabbing orders] the state subsidy for new energy vehicles, which was originally planned to end in 2020, will continue until the end of 2022 due to the plague of the epidemic.

According to this year's subsidy program

More than 300000 of new energy passenger cars have been excluded.

Models with a range of less than 300000 yuan, plug-in hybrid models can enjoy a subsidy of 4800 yuan, while pure electric vehicles with a range of 300,000,400km and more than 400km can receive subsidies of 9100 yuan and 12600 yuan respectively.

In fact, the proportion of new energy models that did not rely on subsidies accounted for more than 50% last year, while the proportion of subsidies in car companies' new energy revenue fell to 5%, 15%.

These key data are further optimized this year. In the first 10 months, among the top 10 new energy vehicles, Model Y, Wuling Hongguang MINI and Chery QQ ice cream are not subsidized, and most of the other models account for less than 10% of the price.

In addition, sales of new energy vehicles fell 63% month-on-month in January 2016, while January 2021 and January 2022 were also the first months of subsidized decline in that year, but sales fell by only 20.5% and 18.5% month-on-month.

These data prove that the sense of existence of state subsidies is now very weak.

"the withdrawal of state subsidies is nothing more than overdrawing part of next year's demand as usual, but the overall impact on sales is already very small," said an auto industry analyst who has long focused on the end market. what is more interesting is how the car companies will deal with it. after all, this is the last legitimate opportunity to raise prices, and it is difficult to choose between gross profit margin and sales. "

Objectively speaking, profitability is still the number one problem facing the new energy vehicle industry.

With the exception of Tesla, all the new car-building forces are losing money. The new energy business of most traditional car companies has not yet achieved self-hematopoiesis, coupled with the epidemic, rising prices of raw materials and other factors, everyone's profit statement this year is already very ugly.

The withdrawal of state subsidies will make the already ugly income statement even worse. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Federation of passengers, predicts that a small round of price increases will be inevitable by the beginning of next year.

But how much it goes up, you know how cold and warm it is.

BYD is the first to take the lead. From January 1 next year, the prices of BYD's ocean, dynasty and momentum-related new energy models will range from 2000 to 6000 yuan. Users who pay deposits and sign contracts before then will not be affected by the price adjustment.

The meaning of this price increase notice is very clear. The increase of 2000-6000 yuan is about half of the national subsidy, that is to say, after the end of the national subsidy, BYD and consumers will each give half to "fill the hole."

After BYD, Ian followed suit and announced that prices would rise by 3000 to 8000 next year, much the same as BYD.

At present, BYD and Ian have a number of hot-selling models, enhanced economies of scale, and better anti-risk ability, especially BYD.

Some netizens can not help sighing, it is worthy of when the eldest brother, there is a pattern.

Some netizens concluded that when people who are better than you work harder than you, or even have a sense of crisis than you, then the competition in this market may be far more fierce than we thought.

It is said that in recent weeks, many brands have held overnight meetings to study the pricing strategy for the second year, such as whether to return directly to the original price before there is no subsidy, or to increase a little more by the way, so as to resolve the cost pressure caused by fluctuating raw material prices. Of course, some brands choose to wait and see before making a decision.

However, now that even BYD, the "new energy boss", is providing subsidies in disguise, the pressure is undoubtedly on smaller companies, especially the new powers.

In the words of a new power insider, the impact of the withdrawal of subsidies depends on each family's ability to digest costs.

For example, Euler has suffered too much loss from A0-class cars, and then began to transform to the middle and high end. On the contrary, Tesla is able to switch between price increases and price cuts precisely because it has a strong enough ability to control costs and make profits.

Entering the era of zero subsidy, the Matthew effect is likely to become more and more obvious, and larger enterprises tend to have an innate advantage in reducing costs, so it is not difficult to understand why Weilai wants to build second and third brands. Ideally start to change to car tactics.

Zhang Yong, co-founder and CEO of Nezha, has previously said that new forces must quickly scale up, including layout in the supply chain, in order to reduce costs and increase efficiency.

When the new energy track is officially switched to pure market orientation, the competition pattern of this market segment will quietly change from marketing and setting up these soft power to the stage of competing for hard power such as cost control, technology reserve and R & D investment.

When the tide recedes, we know who is swimming naked.

NO.4 [at the end] recently, there is a piece of news that comes as a bit of a surprise.

Mazda plans to invest 10.6 billion to promote electrification and will also work with Chinese companies to ensure the supply of power batteries.

It seems that the MX-5 design of the electric Mazda has nothing to do with our new energy state supplement. But when you think about it, stubborn and dull as Mazda, you have to bow to the mighty trend of electrification.

The state subsidy, which has lasted for more than a decade, is an important reason why China's new energy vehicles have been able to run all the way and stand at the forefront of the trend.

Who can say that it is not worth it to trade 200 billion yuan for another opportunity for China's automobile industry to lead the world?

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: AutoReport Automobile production (ID:autoreport), written by: Misfire, edited by Yu Jie.

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