Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

In a month's time, the subsidy for the purchase of new energy vehicles will end, which also means that the "national subsidy" of new energy vehicles, which has lasted for 13 years, will officially withdraw from the historical stage.

According to a notice issued in December last year, the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles will end on December 31, 2022, and countries that have licensed vehicles from January 1, 2023 will no longer grant subsidies.

According to the 2022 subsidy policy, except for electric models, there is no subsidy for models with a range of less than 300km, 9100 yuan for models with a mileage of 300,000km, 12600 yuan for models with mileage greater than or equal to 400km, and 4800 yuan for plug-in hybrid models. in addition, there is no subsidy for models with a price higher than 300000.

Subsidies are about to exit BYD is the first to raise prices with the end of subsidies, major new energy car companies have recently launched a series of targeted programs. BYD announced on November 23 that affected by the imminent termination of subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles and the sharp rise in the prices of major raw materials for batteries since the second half of the year, BYD will adjust the official guidance prices of dynasty, ocean and momentum-related new energy models by 2000 yuan to 6000 yuan. However, customers who pay a deposit before January 1, 2023 will not be affected by the price adjustment.

Shortly after BYD announced that the price of its new energy vehicles was about to rise, it was also circulated on the Internet that Geely would raise the prices of its Geometry cars and Ruilan cars, ranging from 2000 yuan to 6000 yuan.

However, according to the Financial Associated Press, Geely denied the price increase. Geely said that the withdrawal of state subsidies and the rise in materials next year may have an impact on the sales price of new energy vehicles. Geely has not adjusted the price of new energy models. "

In addition, in response to the price increase of new energy vehicles, polar krypton also responded recently that it will not follow suit. Zhao Yuhui, vice president of extreme krypton intelligent technology, said that in the face of complex market price system changes, extreme krypton will not make price adjustments. As a user-oriented enterprise, we always focus on product power and user value. Will continue to focus on improving product value and user experience.

On November 27, Changan Deep Blue announced in its official App that the national subsidy would be cancelled soon, and Changan Deep Blue formally promised to place and lock the order before December 31, 2022, and once the order meets the 2022 new energy state subsidy conditions for customers, the difference in the 2022 new energy state subsidy policy will be subsidized by Changan Deep Blue, and users will still pay according to the guiding price when placing the lock order. At present, the subsidy for the extended version of the dark blue SL03 is 4800 yuan, and the subsidy for the pure electric version of SL03 is 13860 yuan.

AITO asked before also issued a "time-limited order, lock the state subsidy" policy. Users who are ordered before November 20, 2022 will provide a differential subsidy if they are unable to complete the license before December 31, 2022 due to AITO cars.

Subsequently, AITO World Automobile once again issued an announcement to add 10, 000 additional state subsidies in 2022. According to the announcement, starting from November 24, 2022, if the top 10,000 users who have paid the deposit without a refund cannot complete the registration by December 31, 2022 because of AITO vehicles, the official will provide differential subsidies to users according to the national new energy vehicle purchase subsidy standard in 2022.

Pure market-driven subsidies no longer affect consumers' choice, even though other car companies have not yet followed up except for the price increase announced by BYD, but according to the current forecast of the industry as a whole, after the purchase subsidy stops next year, domestic new energy vehicles are bound to usher in a wave of price increases, but the impact on the entire new energy vehicle market is limited.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Federation of passengers, said in an interview with the media that due to the formal withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles at the end of this year, the domestic new energy vehicle market will set off another round of price increases early next year, but the scale will not be too large.

In fact, the domestic subsidy standards for new energy vehicles have become more and more stringent since 2017, and even if they can meet the subsidy standards, the actual amount of subsidies has begun to be reduced.

In 2016, the minimum subsidy for new energy vehicles is 25000 yuan, and the subsidy for models with mileage greater than or equal to 250km can reach 55000 yuan. At this stage and even looking forward, the impact of subsidies on new energy vehicles on major car companies is very great, on the one hand, the amount of subsidy itself is very large, on the other hand, because the market has not yet accepted new energy vehicles, car companies can not survive only by selling cars.

Since 2017, the subsidy for new energy vehicles has dropped by 20% on the basis of 2016. In 2019, the overall decline of the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles has exceeded 40%. In 2021, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles has dropped by more than 50% compared with 2016; on January 1 this year, new energy subsidies fell again by 30%.

Although subsidies are gradually declining, the impact on sales is weakening. Sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 were 3.51 million, an increase of 165% over the same period last year. From January to October this year, cumulative sales of new energy vehicles have reached 4.432 million, an increase of 107.5% over the same period last year.

In addition, according to data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the proportion of new energy vehicles receiving new energy subsidies is decreasing year by year, from 78% in 2017 to 63% in 2020 to only 47% in 2021.

We can also see from the ranking of new energy vehicle sales in the first 10 months of this year released by the Federation of passengers, including Wuling Hongguang MINI, Chery QQ Ice Cream, ideal ONE and some Tesla Model Y models, either because of the price or because of insufficient battery life, all of them do not meet the subsidy standards, but sales are still very high.

However, it can also be seen from this list that new energy vehicles priced between 15 yuan and 200000 yuan are the main sales force at present, and these models are also most affected by new energy subsidies. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Federation of passengers, said in an interview with time Weekly: "as the national subsidy is coming to an end, mainstream mid-range new energy vehicle brands with a price range of 50,000 to 200000 yuan will bear more competitive pressure next year."

At present, the subsidy for new energy vehicles at this price is 12600 yuan, but BYD has set the price increase at 2000 yuan to 6000 yuan, less than half of the national subsidy. This is mainly due to the soaring sales of BYD this year, as well as the continuous improvement of profitability. However, for other car companies, especially the new power, the pressure is bound to increase next year.

Conclusion: as the subsidy is getting smaller and smaller, new energy vehicles gradually penetrate into the market, and the whole market basically tends to be stable. At present, it has really changed from policy-driven to market-driven. Subsidies of thousands to 10,000 yuan will no longer affect the choice of car owners.

For car companies, on the contrary, it is the shortage of chips and the rise in the price of battery raw materials that can affect the price and market performance of new energy vehicles. It can be predicted that the competition in the new energy vehicle market will further intensify next year, who has better control over the supply chain, and who rises less when everyone is raising prices, who is likely to stand out.

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