Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

The original title: "the end of the fuel truck shall be decided by the common people."

When Black five receives double Eleven, when Starbucks changes to Red Cup, and when electric car anxiety is a hot search, we know that another year of winter is coming.

At present, there is not much chill in the south, but it is conceivable that the north is another picture. The news that it is difficult for taxis to change electricity in Changchun, Jilin Province, is a prelude to the 2022 electric car winter competition.

The new year, the new game and the new atmosphere, in previous years, it is just normal to recharge, but this time the power change, which has been regarded as a great savior, has also stumbled. According to related reports, due to days of rain and snow, the batteries of many change-of-electricity taxis in Changchun-incredibly but reasonably-are frozen together with the chassis.

Originally in the PPT, promotional videos and people's imagination, the elegant and beautiful n minutes easily changed into the embarrassment of "warming the ice with a hairdryer" and even waiting in line for hours. When the change of electricity is also defeated in the face of the cold winter, what else can the electric car rely on to survive the winter?

However, this is not the focus of this article.

When the people need it, you don't mean to criticize the power exchange mode at all. Ben Hu has specially talked about the advantages and disadvantages of changing electricity before. The current northeast power station is not ready for the cold winter, and it is impossible to deduce the conclusion that it is impossible to adapt to the low temperature environment if the power station is changed.

Electric car vs fuel car this top topic, if you agree that "electric car can not completely replace fuel car in a short period of time", the popular logic in the past and today is: electric car is too heavy and silent, no fun and lack of culture, fuel car will become a handicraft like a mechanical watch-so fuel car will not disappear.

It may sound reasonable at first, but if you think about it, you will find that the last reservation for fuel cars is top luxury goods, which, like today's mechanical watches, has nothing to do with 99.9% of people. What's the difference between this and "disappearing"? If so, is it not a disguised affirmation that "electric cars will quickly replace fuel vehicles"?

After all, for the general public, as a daily necessities, the "mechanical watch" is already several meters high.

Don't be stubborn, of course I know that mechanical watches of 1000 yuan and 100 yuan are still available today. But it is clear that relative to the population coverage of electronic timers (including not limited to quartz watches, mobile phones, etc.), looking back at the era when "timing tools are 100% mechanical watches", "mechanical watches as practical timing tools" are thoroughly dead.

Now, the electricity-changing taxis trapped in the snow and ice remind us that fuel trucks will not disappear quickly in a moment, but not because what has become a luxury handicraft is worshipped, on the contrary-- because of the people's most simple demand for cheap and free travel, it also requires the old iron of the internal combustion engine to stand on duty again.

How far you can drive is linked to the thickness of the wallet.

What is the biggest change from fuel-powered cars to pure electric cars? Quieter? Smoother? More anxious? Not really, it is a thing of the past that "mileage is not linked to the purchase cost (price-class)".

In the age of fuel trucks, how far a car can run on full gas and how long it takes to refuel-we might as well call the two "driving / utilization freedom"-never have anything to do with "what class the car is and how much it costs".

Of course, there must be subtle individual differences, I also know that SUV can go to more places, big G can go to more places, luxury cars fuel consumption is high, fuel is difficult to find, off-road vehicles have large fuel tanks, some cars are very fuel-efficient. Again, ignore the details and don't argue.

A person who buys a car, no matter how expensive or cheap it is, makes no difference only in terms of "driving / using freedom". Both BMW and Baojun can go to one of the hundreds of gas stations in the city to refuel for five minutes and run hundreds of kilometers at a time, all of which can cope with the daily commute to their hometown for the Spring Festival.

Just because you drive a $30,000 Xiali and he drives a 3 million Bentley, it takes you an hour to refuel and people only need 10 minutes to refuel, so you drive a 300km and they break down and they 800km home in one breath, so you can only drill three floors of the mall to find oil guns while people can refuel at the golden stalls on the ground.

This used to be unthinkable.

Fuel-fueled cars never know what is meant by "driving / using freedom". Hydrocarbons are treated equally, regardless of your poverty or small goals. Pure electric cars that use lithium batteries to store energy are quite different: a single battery life depends on battery capacity, and charging speed depends on charging power-both of which are decisively positively related to cost (car price).

In reality, in the world of electric cars, the longer the range, the faster the charging, and the higher the "driving / utilization freedom", the more expensive the car must be; to achieve higher "driving / utilization freedom" at lower prices, there must be sacrifices in other aspects, including but not limited to luxury configuration, smart features, brand style, and so on.

Even electric vehicles have an extra external variable of "driving / utilization freedom", that is, differences in charging infrastructure. The cost of self-charging piles is borne by the car companies, so brand models with self-charging system are bound to bear more cost pressure than equivalent models without self-charging-usually the more expensive the car.

Even household and public charging networks are contributing to the flames: although not as closely linked as the above factors, generally speaking, residential areas with higher living costs and commercial office buildings with richer customer groups are more likely to have more convenient charging conditions.

All of the above never existed in the age of fuel. The result of all this is that electric cars greatly magnify the basic utility differences between high and low prices / levels of private cars.

More and more people have begun to realize that the most basic function of motor vehicles has always been and will always be to "send people to another place". Anything that is proficient but does not provide this basic utility cannot be called a smart car, but a smart home at best.

The more limited the budget, the more likely the bottom line is to keep the basic utility of the vehicle when compromising from high to low on the model price list. For fuel cars, this is natural: from luxury cars to eight-handed Xiali, abandoning performance, luxury, function, technology and even comfort, the basic skills of "from point A to point B" are almost uncompromised.

And consumers who have the same limited budget but can only choose pure electricity cannot in any case be at the same price with the same degree of "performance." the degree of comfort is abandoned, and the basic utility of the vehicle is not greatly discounted, that is, what we call "driving / utilization freedom".

Because the basic utility of electric cars is limited by single range, fuel supply speed, infrastructure, etc., it is impossible to achieve the level of more expensive (increased budget) models under a lower budget, nor is it possible to match the level of fuel cars at the same price. because the latter, like all fuel vehicles, can be regarded as a full score.

Reflected in reality, it is the asymmetry and non-linear distribution of electric vehicle permeability with the price.

In addition to pure electricity, the data also includes plug-in, but it can be used as an overall reference.

Middle-class people have relatively free budget and time, and families have a larger proportion of two or more private cars, so they naturally have higher ability, tolerance and sensitivity to the problem of replenishing energy by electric vehicles. Naturally, 200000 yuan and higher are the easiest markets for electric cars to conquer. Indeed, for this type of consumers, the disadvantages of electric cars are not so easy to reflect.

Many KOL and Big V people are concentrated in this area, they work freelance, do not catch up with the rush, have no leadership and leave as soon as they are told. You can go to the mall at ten o'clock on Monday morning to recharge at the wrong peak. The neighborhood with a monthly rent of 12K says that downstairs is full of piled parking spaces that are unused, and then tell you that charging is more convenient than refueling (that's more convenient).

But in the price below 200000 yuan-accounting for more than 70% of the total market sales, most families here only have 1 or 2 private cars, the overall time tolerance is lower, and the conditions for access to charging resources are even worse. Although the cost of using a fuel car is higher, the freedom to drive / use a car is the decisive need for them to buy a private car-nothing is as good as taking a taxi in terms of cost.

As for the unusually high market penetration of less than 50,000 yuan, it is not difficult to understand.

Fuel trucks or cars with fuel engines do not disappear quickly because their charm has turned into a handicraft luxury. It has become a toy like today's mechanical watch, losing its identity as a "practical timing tool" and a "practical travel tool". In fact, it is tantamount to the demise of facts.

Ferrari and Patek Philippe are of the same kind and are no longer of the same species as the BBA of Liangtian.

Having nothing to do with pleasure, fuel trucks or engines still cannot be abandoned today, because for the vast civilian population with limited budget and time, they are still generally the most economical (a combination of purchase and use). Can provide a high degree of free delivery capacity of the power source.

Electric car technology may or may not break this point in the future; hybrid, especially plug-in, will make a trade-off between the two extremes until the two are enough to make a difference at a rustic price of less than 200000 yuan.

The end of the fuel car is not the illusory luxury car overrun, but the shopping and pulling work in the neighborhood.

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: autocarweekly (ID:autocarweekly), article: Aohu

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