Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

CTOnews.com, November 18 (Xinhua) according to a recent study by the British Antarctic Survey, a rise in carbon dioxide levels in the Earth's atmosphere will lead to a long-term decline in air density at high altitudes. This reduction in density will reduce resistance to objects moving between 90 and 500 kilometers in the upper atmosphere, extend the life of space debris and increase the likelihood of debris colliding with satellites.

CTOnews.com has learned that if billions of dollars worth of satellites are destroyed by space debris, it could cause serious problems because society is increasingly dependent on satellite navigation systems, mobile communications and earth monitoring functions.

The study, recently published in the journal KuaiBao of Geophysical Research, provides the first realistic estimate of climate change in the upper atmosphere over the next 50 years. Although some studies have examined the changes that will take place in the lower and middle atmosphere, much less research has been done on the upper atmosphere.

As of March 2021, there were about 5000 active and ineffective satellites in low Earth orbit (up to 2000 km), an increase of 50 per cent over the previous two years, a study found. A number of companies plan to add thousands more over the next decade. Once decommissioned, the satellite continues to operate in orbit, but slows down due to atmospheric resistance, lowering its orbital altitude until it burns in the lower atmosphere. The current guidelines developed by the Inter-Agency Space debris Coordination Committee recommend that satellite operators ensure that decommissioned satellites are out of orbit within 25 years, but the reduction in atmospheric density will cause errors in planning and calculation.

Compared with the lower atmosphere, the middle and upper atmosphere has been getting colder. This has led to a decline in density which has a practical impact on the resistance of objects at these heights such as abandoned satellites and debris related to space missions. As the resistance decreases, the lifespan of these objects will be longer, the objects will stay in orbit longer, and the risk of colliding with moving satellites and other space debris will be greater.

Ingrid Cnossen, an independent researcher at the NERC of the British Antarctic Survey, used a global model of the entire atmosphere up to 500km to simulate changes in the upper atmosphere before 2070. She compared her forecast with data from the past 50 years and found that even in the case of moderate emissions in the future, the projected decline in the density of the upper atmosphere would be about double that of the past 50 years.

"the change between the climate in the upper atmosphere we have seen over the past 50 years and our projections for the next 50 years is the result of carbon dioxide emissions," Cnossen said. "it is increasingly important to understand and predict how climate change will affect these areas, especially for the satellite industry and policy makers involved in setting standards for the industry."

"Space debris is becoming a serious problem for satellite operators because of the risk of collision, which is being exacerbated by the long-term decline in upper atmospheric density," Cnossen said. I hope this work will help guide appropriate action to control space pollution and ensure that the upper atmosphere remains an available resource in the future. "

According to the European Space Agency, there are more than 30,000 traceable debris larger than 10 centimeters in diameter and 1 million debris objects larger than 1 centimeter in low-Earth orbit.

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