Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

The issue of pricing power batteries is like Schrodinger's cat.

No one wants to be a permanent loser in the bet on power batteries.

At the 12th China Automobile Forum, Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, once again pointed the finger at the shortage of chips and the high price of power batteries. And clearly claimed: "lack of core, expensive electricity" has caused Changan Automobile to lose 606000 units of production capacity this year.

It is worth noting that when describing the power battery problem, Zhu Huarong used "expensive electricity" rather than "lack of power". In other words, there is no shortage of power batteries in today's new energy vehicle market, but the power batteries supplied by suppliers are too expensive, making new energy car companies miserable.

Of course, this is not the battery manufacturer targeting Changan alone. Earlier, GAC Chairman Zeng Qinghong publicly "blasted" the Ningde era, saying that power batteries accounted for 40% or 60% of the vehicle cost, mocking GAC for working for the Ningde era.

The repeated "grievances" of car companies are sufficient to prove the seriousness of the problem. Along the power battery supply chain up, the first to find is the power battery enterprises, but often encounter this situation, power battery companies will throw the "pot" to the upstream raw material suppliers.

According to the recent data of Shanghai Iron and Steel Federation, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has gone up again, even approaching 600000 yuan / ton. At the beginning of 2021, the price of lithium carbonate was only about 50,000 yuan per ton, but today it has risen nearly 12 times.

Lithium carbonate, which is born with the nature of futures, has become a major factor in the uncontrolled cost of power batteries. The reason for the high price of power batteries is attributed to the vicious speculation of capital, which is caused by the hesitation of some sellers, hoarding of goods by buyers and hoarding of middlemen.

So, the "peach" of the power battery was taken away by finance?

01, gambling inside and outside the game, gambling strong from the business logic point of view, the power battery industry chain of enterprises, interest-oriented, understandable. And the price of raw materials upstream has long been a well-known secret because of the rising demand for new energy vehicles in the short term.

So we all know that one day, the price of raw materials upstream will fall sharply. So before that, since it is profitable, companies will of course choose to join forces. Because everyone is betting that they will not be the last person to stand guard.

In fact, around this gambling table, not only the upstream raw material merchants are betting, but also the power battery companies led by Ningde era, Guangzhou Automobile, Xilai and other car companies are also betting.

First of all, from the perspective of financial statements, in addition to the Ningde era, the major power battery enterprises are basically in a state of "increasing income without increasing profits". This phenomenon was particularly evident at the beginning of this year. And because of the soaring upstream raw materials, battery manufacturers lack the discourse power and capital control ability of the Ningde era, so they can only suffer a dumb loss.

However, other battery manufacturers will be jealous when they see the huge profits made in the Ningde era. As a result, after the listing of Sinovel, it quickly opened the European layout; Guoxuan Hi-Tech invested 11.5 billion yuan to set up an annual 20GWh and an annual 10GWh power battery base in Hefei, Anhui and Liuzhou, Guangxi, respectively; Xinwanda won the order of Volkswagen; Yiwei Lithium received an olive branch from BMW.

On the other hand, the soaring cost of power batteries will obviously hinder the development of new energy vehicles. In particular, such as Changan, Guangzhou Automobile, the prices of their own products are less than 250000 yuan, and they are even more sensitive to costs.

By contrast, life is much easier for BYD and Tesla, and what they have in common is clear: strong control of the vertical supply chain, and even reaching further upstream into mineral resources.

Since Zhuyu is in front, it is the right thing to touch Tesla and BYD to cross the river.

Other car companies follow suit, either actively supporting second supply in order to get cheaper power battery products, or they themselves come off the stage and build their own batteries; GAC, Ulay and the Great Wall all follow this path.

There is no doubt that in terms of self-built factories and batteries built by car companies, it must be a loss in the short term. After all, it is impossible to quench one's thirst after all. But these flocking car companies are betting on a sustainable future. Similarly, upstream raw material suppliers are betting on the phrase "there is always a shortage of resources".

When it comes to the power battery enterprises, on the one hand, it is the survival and development of the enterprise, on the other hand, it is the mountain that can not be removed in the Ningde era, what can we bet on in this case? We can only bet on the favor of individual car companies and the way to balance the market.

02. Who picked the peach? New energy vehicles are becoming more and more expensive, but in addition to Tesla and BYD, the new car-building forces led by Wei Xiaoli still claim to be selling cars at a loss. After some understanding, the feedback was more or less the same, except that the power batteries were sold too expensive and the profits were taken away.

Therefore, from the perspective of car companies, "peaches" is picked by power battery companies.

According to the latest data from the China Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, domestic power battery production totaled 62.8GWh in October, an increase of 150.1% year-on-year and 6.2% month-on-month. By contrast, the number of cars loaded with power batteries is only 30.5GWh, up 98.1% from a year earlier, down 3.5% from a month earlier, and less than half of total output.

The reason for this "more production and less equipment" is that car companies hoard power batteries for later use after buying power batteries. Or do power battery companies have the ability to produce, but car companies do not have enough ability to buy?

Looking back, in 1922, a massive economic crisis broke out in the United States, with the collapse of the stock market and the Great Depression. At that time, the dairy industry in the United States was very developed, and milk production doubled, resulting in overproduction. In order to ensure profits, farmers poured a large amount of excess milk into the Mississippi River.

Similarly, is there any reason to believe that in order to ensure sufficient profits, not only are upstream raw material suppliers hoarding goods, but power battery companies are also artificially creating "shortages"?

To say the least, it may not be any of the possibilities mentioned earlier. However, judging from the current situation, only with the joint efforts of the major battery manufacturers will it be possible to reverse the uneven distribution of interests in the industry chain and the inappropriate right to speak in the short term.

Relevant data show that Ningde era has had a market share of less than 50% for seven consecutive months, but its position in the power battery industry is still a veritable leader. In other words, Ningde era is now the direction of China's power battery market, price, development direction, Ningde era is the object to be imitated.

On the issue of the cost of power batteries, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde Times, once said: "the capital speculation of upstream raw materials has brought short-term trouble to the power battery industry chain. Lithium carbonate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, petroleum coke and other upstream materials for lithium batteries have all skyrocketed."

So what is worth pondering is why the Ningde era can still be "a touch of green in the flowers", not only to achieve net profit growth against the trend, but also to creatively open up the Japanese market again. Strategic cooperation with Dafa Industrial Co., Ltd. (Dafa Automobile) in battery supply and battery technology?

The most direct reason is that even if the price of power batteries rises, car companies will still buy the accounts of the Ningde era. When the cost of power battery passed smoothly, the gross profit margin of Ningde era stabilized. With the advantages of scale, technology and profit, Ningde era can explore other markets more actively.

But this can only show that the Ningde era relies on its own influence to do business operation, and can not promote the entire power battery industry. As for the profits of other power battery companies, they will still be taken by more upstream raw material suppliers, and the so-called peach pickers will be transferred to a higher level.

So who is controlling the price of raw materials? After thinking about it, it may only be those speculators who carry this "pot".

As to whether the upstream suppliers are still making money, whether battery manufacturers really have no pricing power, and whether car companies have no choice but to accept high prices, they have no choice but to wait until later, depending on the strength of the "plan regulation".

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: C dimensional (ID:C_world2021), author: Zhang Zhidong, editor: Cui Liwen, editor: chic

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