Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

The status of Chinese design center is very important.

Musk's phrase "new models are being developed" has attracted a lot of revelry from netizens all over the world.

Although there is no clear information about the name, location and price of this brand-new model, enthusiastic netizens have made many renderings of Tesla's brand-new model.

From these pictures, we can tease out a lot of common information, such as a hatchback or hatchback, priced at $25000, equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries, or launched in 2025.

01 appearance: hatchback or cross-border first of all from the name point of view, the most popular are Model 2 and Model Q, but this Model 2 has been officially denied by Musk, saying that Model 2 is not a car, so we call it Model Q below.

Sugarchow, a foreign car design enthusiast, designed an imaginary diagram of Model Q.

Source: Sugar design he made the Model Q into a "hunting version of Model 3" with almost the same front face and the same wheelbase as the model 3, but replaced the tail with a hatchback.

Source: Sugar design is not so much Model Q as Model 3 wagon. This shape, "earthen jar fans" will shine when they look at it.

From the current point of view, the design of Sugarchow is the most beautiful rendering of Model Q, but in practice, Model Q may not be that big, and the body is not even so coordinated and outstanding.

The Model Q, designed by the German media Carforce247, is more in line with Musk's smaller size, 400km.

Source: Carforce247's four-door, four-seater, more rounded, compact shape reminiscent of Golf, Quanta and Fox, and the price is similar to the high-end models of these fuel-compact hatchbacks on the market.

In January 2020, Tesla released a sketch of Model Q on Weibo after the launch ceremony of Tesla Model 3 in January 2020.

Source: Tesla and in kdesignag's design, model Q is more like a cross-border SUV.

Source: Kdesingnag in the PS Artcar design, the Model Q is designed as a two-door model with a front face more like Model P's design and a more sporty overall look.

Source: PS Artcar in fact, the official Tesla once raised a key question: will the new car be a cross-border SUV? Now from the above rendering pictures, Model Q basically bid farewell to the hatchback car shape, will be more like hatchback or cross-border SUV.

02 blade battery or 4680? Tesla's future entry-level cars will most likely choose lithium iron phosphate batteries rather than ternary lithium in order to reduce costs and ensure longer cycle life.

And the lithium iron phosphate battery, which was once carried on the Model 3, may be optimized for the Model Q.

The lithium iron phosphate battery on Model 3 is from the Ningde era. The energy density of the battery pack is 126Wh/kg and the battery energy is 60kWh, which provides Model 3 with 556km mileage under CLTC operating conditions.

In addition, Tesla may use BYD blade batteries on the Model Q. On October 21, 2021, the Financial Associated Press reported that Tesla had ordered a total of 10GWh battery packs from BYD, equivalent to 200000 battery packs, which could supply about 1/4 of Model 3 and Model Y production.

Source: BYD also speculated that Model Q would use Tesla's latest 4680 battery. Earlier, Tesla demonstrated his 4680 battery technology in Greenhead, Germany, in September, saying that he was planning to launch an electric vehicle with 4680 batteries.

Source: Panasonic, however, Musk revealed during the earnings call in the second quarter of 2021 that the current battery capacity is not only 4680 batteries, but also other types of batteries such as lithium iron phosphate. It also suggests that the new car's battery may not be 4680.

Based on the above information, it is predicted that the Model Q may use a lithium iron phosphate battery of 45-55 kilowatt hours to provide a range of 400-500km.

03 Autopilot or standard intelligent driving, refer to the current FSD autopilot of Model 3 and Model Y, which costs tens of thousands of yuan to choose. The latest FSD Bete may also be installed on Model Q as an option, and the standard configuration may still be Autopilot.

Of course, it depends on the release time of Model Q and the development of autopilot technology at that time.

Interestingly, in 2019, Tesla released a picture of car interior without steering wheel and pedals, indicating that the goal is to launch such a car within two years. Having no steering wheel means relying solely on FSD autopilot technology.

Source: Tesla on this year's AI Day, Tesla said that there are 160000 customers running beta software. Tesla demonstrated his "obstacle avoidance plan", which relies on the pure visual output of the car body to occupy the Internet. At present, most technology companies use lidar scanning to build a 3D world, but Tesla is built solely on eight cameras with high position accuracy.

Source: the vision of TeslaFSD occupies the network and needs huge data support to make semantic annotation. We can't predict when FSD will achieve "full autopilot". At least the bull boasted three years ago has not been realized. So the Model Q will certainly not be fully autopilot like the one in the rendered picture without a steering wheel.

04 the role of China Design Center

Model Q is likely to be designed and developed in China.

Tesla is setting up a design center in Beijing to develop new cars for the Chinese market. Zhu Xiaotong, president of Tesla China, said in an interview: "We have talked about original design in China-elements that represent Chinese aesthetics, engineering R & D and production to build a car, and finally represent the level of China's engineering strength, and finally sell to the world."

Source: Sina Automobile

"this R & D center is the starting point of the goal."

As early as in early 2020, Tesla said he would set up a design center in China to build international electric vehicles.

At the beginning of last year, some foreign media exposed that Tesla would set up a new design center in Beijing or Shanghai, and was recruiting a design director, requiring more than 20 years of design experience and in-depth understanding of the Chinese market. Tesla began to plan Tesla to "create original Chinese style".

Source: Tesla

Musk made it clear at the World Conference on artificial Intelligence in July 2020 that Tesla will carry out a lot of original engineering development in China, not simply copying American things directly to China. But to carry out original design and original engineering development in China.

Then, Tesla officially released the recruitment information of the China Design Center. The 11 positions recruited this time include chief designer, creative designer, senior vehicle designer, design quality expert, color arts and science expert and so on. Tesla recruitment called the design center "Tesla's first fully functional design center outside the United States."

Source: Tesla from the current situation, the China Design Center is about to be completed; the Shanghai Super Factory has achieved a 100% localization rate of spare parts; and the cost reduction brought about by the improvement of technology and industrial chain, all indicate that Tesla may launch a 100% localized product in China in the future.

05 release time and other questions according to media estimates, Model Q may be listed by 2025.

Moreover, the new car will be born in a new car platform, and the manufacturing cost will be reduced to half that of the Model 3 and Model Y.

In terms of domestic sales, Tesla's main competitor is now BYD, which is likely to produce 1 million electric vehicles by the end of the year. In the price range of 15-200000, BYD's three new energy vehicles, Song PLUS, Qin PLUS and Yuan PLUS, have long occupied the top three in domestic sales, with sales of 126196, 97656 and 51072 respectively in the third quarter of 2022.

Source: with the decline in cost and the maturity of battery technology, a large number of automakers have set their sights on the compact car cake.

New Power Lai is planning to launch a sub-brand priced at 100000-200000. Last year, Weilai planned a second brand, Alps, priced in the 20-300000 price range, for production in 2024. The price of the third brand launched next is even lower, reaching 100, 000.

Source: in the international market, Volkswagen is planning an ID.2, which will be released in 2025. "We are studying entry-level electric vehicles, about 20000 euros," Volkswagen Group CEO Herbert Diess said in February 2022. Golf and polo used to be the top sellers of compact hatchbacks, which means Volkswagen has enough product experience in this field. ID 2 will probably also use low-cost, high-durability LFP batteries, with estimated WLTP mileage around 400km.

Source: Volkswagen's Renault 5, which will be released in 2024, is also a potential rival to Model Q. The expected price of the Renault 5 is even lower, and Renault has revealed that it will be priced 1/3 lower than the Renault Zoe, while the Renault Zoe will sell for 21000 euros.

Source: Renault Lucid is also considering a lower-cost model with lower range and lower cost. Lucid Motor's CEO and CTO Peter Rawlinson says that if users don't have to run long distances and can recharge at home, "150mph (241km) is enough".

Musk has high hopes for the $25000 Model Q, saying that total delivery will exceed that of all Tesla's other automotive products combined. Tesla produced 563987 cars and delivered 564743 in the first half of 2022. In 2021, he produced 930422 and sold 936172.

This means that Model Q will be a product with an annual delivery volume of more than 1 million.

Model Q, can you prop up Tesla's future?

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: Superelectricity Lab (ID:SuperEV-Lab), author: Cao Zichang, Editor: Zizhou

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