Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

The article looks at the 7-year history of Microsoft AR headline: executive turnover, shortage of funds, technical frustration.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Microsoft's AR (Augmented Reality) HoloLens research and development team has left more than 100 people in the past two years, most of whom have gone to Meta, the parent company of Facebook, a global social networking platform. In addition, there have been rumors recently that Microsoft may have cancelled consumer-grade XR hardware projects developed in cooperation with Samsung. At present, Microsoft is frequently blocked in the AR field, and its development is deadlocked.

HoloLens headset is a futuristic AR headset launched by Microsoft in 2015. It is a ring-like device worn on the head like a crown, which uses 3D images to superimpose digital content on the real world, but this headset has not become a hot product.

In January 2015, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella had high hopes for HoloLens when she first introduced it, saying it would be "the next big thing." However, seven years after the launch of the headset, Microsoft's strategy to move into AR has been hampered by both technology and the company's management's lack of patience, and Nadella's vision for the device has yet to materialize.

01. More than 100 people have left the HoloLens team AR department has been split Global workplace social networking site LinkedIn data and former Microsoft employees revealed that in the past two years, more than 100 employees have left the HoloLens team. Microsoft has restructured its HoloLens team of more than 1000 people and cut research funding for AR projects. This may be because the decline in PC sales has affected consumer demand for Windows software, resulting in a decline in Microsoft's profit and slower revenue growth in the first quarter of fiscal 2023.

Microsoft is trying to cope with slowing revenue growth by reducing staff costs and more speculative projects. Earlier this year, it was reported that Microsoft had shelved the development plan of HoloLens 3. In addition, there have been recent rumors that it will cancel the consumer-grade XR hardware project with Samsung.

With the departure of Alex Kipman, the initial head of the HoloLens team this year, the HoloLens team has been split into hardware and software. "We're going to take a software-led approach to continuing the AR strategy," Nadella said at a company conference in July. "This has led some employees to question the future of the HoloLens project and Microsoft's hardware strategy.

HoloLens, military applications and other hardware initiatives are being overseen by Panos Panay, Microsoft's chief product officer. The software business has been handed over to Jeff Teper, an executive in charge of the company's office collaboration product Teams.

In addition to the big environmental impact of the recession, Microsoft's actions are also related to poor sales of HoloLens headsets themselves. According to IDC, Microsoft's HoloLens headset has sold approximately 300,000 units since its inception, while IDC analysts estimate Meta has sold approximately 17 million Quest 2 headsets due out in 2022. Meta's Quest 2 headset, by contrast, outsells Microsoft's by 50 times.

Although Microsoft is struggling in AR, Nadella is still very interested in the meta-universe. Nadella meets with executives every two weeks to discuss the issue, according to people who have attended meetings. Last month, Microsoft announced that it would ship its software products on Meta Quest headsets. Some in the industry believe Microsoft is betting that Meta will have a better chance of building hardware products for the meta-universe.

02. In fact, the obstacles Microsoft encountered in HoloLens headsets have already appeared in the early stages of its project. Avi Bar-Zeev, a former Microsoft engineer who led the project, revealed that members of Microsoft's video games division brainstormed on the appearance of the next generation of consoles, envisioning a product that would eventually replace all other screen devices by using AR technology, and named the concept product Screen Zero, which is the original idea of HoloLens headsets.

In 2010, Microsoft built a prototype HoloLens that connected computers with long wires. In the first demonstration, people wearing headsets saw hundreds of cubes floating around them.

Alex Kipman, a Microsoft engineer who led the HoloLens headset project from the beginning, revealed that he originally envisioned an AR headset that could be independent of computers, but it was a very difficult task. Avi Bar-Zeev said: "We make a lot of mistakes because we have dogmatic and rigid assumptions about what works and what doesn't. Current and former employees who have worked on the project for many years revealed that making AR headsets and apps was much more difficult than they expected.

In addition to technical setbacks, the HoloLens team also encountered difficulties in terms of manpower and funding. Tim Osborne, retired HoloLens team director, said: "We were way ahead of the curve in many ways and had a chance to be in a good position in this market, but Microsoft didn't invest enough people and money in this project. "

In addition, there are problems in the formulation of Microsoft's product strategy. Some members of the HoloLens team talk about Microsoft's unclear and inconsistent product strategy.

Users are wearing HoloLens headsets (Photo: AP) 03. From C to B has been applied to automotive and aircraft maintenance HoloLens headsets cost $3000 (about 21840 yuan) too expensive for most consumers, and people know little about the purpose of this headset. As a result, Microsoft has shifted its focus to enterprise users.

Microsoft has formed several groups to work on new uses for HoloLens headsets, including allowing users to view the surface of Mars, a feature that led to Microsoft's partnership with NASA.

▲ Using HoloLens to observe the surface of Mars Microsoft also held a number of demonstrations in order to test the many uses of HoloLens. Employees who participated in a demonstration on Microsoft campus revealed that Microsoft asked users wearing HoloLens headsets to look around, and then users could see real-time images of HoloLens headsets scanning the room, when in fact, they saw digital renderings built by Microsoft earlier.

There were a number of problems with this demo, such as demonstrating furniture nailed to the floor, because even the slightest movement would cause HoloLens to display errors. Sometimes changes in natural light can confuse head-mounted sensors.

In addition, at a presentation for law enforcement, Microsoft showed how law enforcement teams could use HoloLens headsets to identify the location of gunmen, but people involved in the presentation said the device was far from capable of doing so in actual scenarios.

Faced with a presentation that didn't go as well as expected, Shaw explains,"it's common for tech companies to demonstrate potential uses for their products before the technology is fully developed. There are times when features are ready to be demonstrated, but then cancelled for various reasons. "

After a series of demonstrations, Microsoft began working with companies to test HoloLens headsets. In aircraft maintenance, Japanese airline JAL tries to use them to train crew and engine mechanics, while European aircraft manufacturer Airbus tries to use them to help employees complete the complex steps of building aircraft.

In car maintenance, German car company Mercedes-Benz Group lets maintenance mechanics in its US division wear HoloLens headsets and connect remotely with colleagues elsewhere. This way, colleagues elsewhere can see the scope of the U.S. Division maintenance mechanics and tell them which parts to inspect, thus guiding them through the maintenance plan.

▲ Hololens head display demonstration scene 04. Microsoft customizes AR head display for the US Army to reach hundreds of billions of orders Microsoft not only sells HoloLens head display to enterprise users, but also cooperates with the US military. In 2018, Microsoft signed a contract with the U.S. Army for AR headsets worth $480 million (about 3.47 billion yuan), which could eventually be worth as much as $21.88 billion (about 159 billion yuan). Under the contract, Microsoft will customize an IVAS (Integrated Vision Enhancement System) headset for the U.S. Army on top of the existing HoloLens 2 headset to help soldiers train and interact on the battlefield.

To do this, Microsoft needs to add more technology to the HoloLens 2 headset than ever before for military customization, including cameras, military-grade sensors, radio and night vision, as well as waterproof and shockproof features.

The U.S. Army is wearing Hololens headsets, but IVAS headsets exposed a lot of problems in early testing. Former Microsoft employees revealed that during combat exercises, if the headset disconnected from the local wireless network, it would cause the built-in weapon tracker to fail. At the same time, it is also difficult to track the movement of the soldier's head, so it is difficult to project digital objects on the display. Some former employees also said: "the headset is heavy and uncomfortable, and its screen can cause eye strain. Sometimes, after a few hours of use, the headset overheats. "

The U.S. Army announced in October that it would delay testing of the headset for nearly a year. In April this year, the US Department of Defense inspector general revealed in a report that because soldiers are not willing to use IVAS headsets, relevant departments believe that this project investment of up to $21.88 billion may be wasted.

Microsoft may have anticipated the poor results of IVAS's tests, and it feared that the Army might abandon the contract altogether.

In August, the Army unfrozen some of the early funding for the contract, saying IVAS had shown promise, but in order to correct its shortcomings, they would further delay the broader launch of IVAS. Gen. Christopher Schneider, IVAS's head of development, said earlier last month that the Army had recently completed its first round of testing and that the IVAS met most of the criteria, but that there were shortcomings and further improvements needed to be made.

05. Conclusion: Microsoft AR project in deep trouble? Seven years ago, Microsoft had the opportunity to seize the development opportunity in the AR field through its HoloLens headset, but due to technical limitations, unclear product strategy and insufficient funds, its AR headset development was unfavorable, and it may be losing its competitiveness in the AR market.

AR technology is an important part of the meta-universe, but with the current development trend of Microsoft HoloLens, Microsoft has no competitive advantage in this respect. As Microsoft and Meta continue to deepen their cooperation in software, Microsoft's software-led meta-universe strategy may bring more possibilities for its development.

Source: Wall Street Journal

This article comes from Weixin Official Accounts: Zhidong (ID: zhidxcom), compiled| Liu Baihan Editor| Cheng Qian

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