Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

I still remember that at the beginning of the year, various car companies set goals one after another, often millions of them, which seemed to be a big drama, and what we were worried about was that there was not enough cake. However, because of the mask problem, especially this year, from the lack of core at the beginning of the year to the supply chain problem in the middle of the year, it is not easy to live, and all our courage and efforts should be encouraged in the first place.

At this time, the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" has just passed, and it is also the end of the New year. Let's take a look at the progress of the car companies' annual sales targets. Who is the person and who is the ghost?

No one has reversed the situation the following is a statistical table of some car companies (including some brands) KPI sales for the whole year and the first 10 months, some October sales have not been disclosed, take reference to September sales as an example.

First of all, what is striking is that two car companies have overfulfilled their KPI. By October, BYD and GAC Ean had reached their annual targets of 140.29 million and 212000 respectively, and had left school early.

Second, the traditional car companies have won completely. In the sales completion degree of the first 10 months on the far right of the form, those with excellent results were marked in scarlet letter. If you do not count the brands, only count the car companies, there are three companies with a degree of completion above 80%. GAC GROUP and BYD are traditional car companies, and Nezha is a new car; if you do not count the car companies, only the brands are counted, then there are a total of 4 companies with a degree of completion above 80%. BYD, Guangfeng and Ian are from traditional car companies, and Nezha is a new car.

Only according to the statistics of excellent students, the advantages of traditional car companies are already very obvious, and if the degree of completion is directly compared, the situation is even more one-sided.

First, let's take a look at the newly built car. Weilai has the highest degree of completion among Wei Xiaoli, which is close to 66.6%. Xiaopeng and the ideal degree of completion are all less than 50%. Even if Tesla is included, the degree of completion is just 60%, and the frame is 61%. Look at the traditional car companies, Guangzhou Automobile, SAIC, FAW, Chery, Geely are all above 60%, not to mention BYD, which has achieved its goal two months ahead of schedule.

It can be predicted that by the end of this year, both GAC and Nezha have a good chance of achieving the annual sales target. GAC sold 212000 vehicles in October, with a cumulative sales volume of 2.0375 million, a difference of 400000 from the annual KPI; Naga had a monthly sales volume of 18000, a cumulative sales volume of 129200, and a difference of 20800 from the annual KPI. With reference to monthly sales in October, the two companies are hopeful to rush.

Wei Xiaoli's October sales were 10000, 5000 and 10000 respectively, showing a month-on-month decline, and annual sales are basically hopeless.

Tesla has not yet released October data, and Tesla's October sales in China were 72000, down 14% from the previous month, according to the Federation of passengers. Given China's huge share of the global market, its annual sales target for 150 is not optimistic.

It is also worth saying here that although it has long been declared that the annual sales target of 300000 is hopeless, the sales volume exceeded 12000 in October and exceeded 10,000 for three consecutive months, which is already an important pole of the new car camp.

The dust has basically settled, where does the traditional car company win?

No one has naturally become an amazing channel for traditional car companies, as well as the support of dealers, which is its strong support.

As we all know, the sales model of newly built cars often adopts direct sales + agents, and agents are only responsible for collecting orders and will not buy out vehicles for sale, while the products of traditional car companies are sold directly to dealers. The latter has thus established a market advantage this year. But it is necessary to say that the strings are a little too tight.

Let's take a fancy to the two statistics of the Automobile Association:

Through the inventory early warning index and inventory coefficient statistics, it is clear that dealers are under more pressure this year than last year. The impact of the epidemic is extremely critical. In 2021, car companies are worried about the repetition of the epidemic, setting targets are slightly conservative, and the pressure on dealers has eased; in 2022, car companies are generally optimistic, with growth targets of more than 10%, but the epidemic occurs all of a sudden.

By the way, in the international cognitive standard, the reasonable range of inventory coefficient should be between 0.8 and 1.2. The current situation in our country is that less than 1.5 can already be regarded as a reasonable range. In order to realize the ambition of the big brother of the car company, the dealer can be called a painstaking effort.

The advantage of the sales model is only temporary, squeezing the sales obtained by the dealers, or even with some moisture. The real reason why traditional car companies have been able to stay strong this year is the transformation of new energy sources. It can even be said that the real winner of this year's automobile market is neither traditional car companies nor newly built cars, but new energy vehicles.

Let's take a look at this set of data as of October (October statistics are not yet available, please refer to September):

Among the top 15 fuel vehicle manufacturers from January to September, only Guangzhou Auto Toyota and Chery have seen year-on-year growth of more than 10%, while Changan, Geely and Guangzhou Automobile Honda have slightly increased year-on-year, while the other 10 are all falling, mostly by more than 10%.

Let's take a look at this set of data from the Federation of passengers:

Among the top 15 manufacturers of new energy models from January to September, not only are all growing, but also BYD, Geely, Chery and Zero have achieved at least twice the growth. BYD and GAC, two traditional car companies with an annual KPI completion rate of more than 70 per cent, happen to be in the top 5 of the list.

The dividend of firm transformation has been released, but does this prove that traditional car companies are certain to win?

No one can rest assured that it is a new car that defines BYD's future better than 1.4 million cumulative sales.

Seals' sales have soared in the past two months, and after their tepid first full month of sales, they won 7000 + in September and 11000 + in October. Together with Han's sales of more than 30,000, the two models contributed nearly 43,000 sales in October and are expected to reach the level of monthly sales of more than 50,000 in the future.

After an outstanding year, BYD's real test still lies ahead. Should we continue to drain the dividends of the previous generation of models such as Song, Qin, Yuan and Tang, or tilt resources to shape the two truly strategic models, Han and Seal? This is not a life-and-death decision, but it is enough to define its trend in the next few years.

Source see watermark we often say "Wei Xiaoli" camp, at present, the ideal is no doubt the winner. L9 delivered more than 10,000 vehicles in the first month, and the brand sold 10052 units in October. Considering that ONE has stopped production in October, L9 handed over the monthly sales of 10,000 vehicles for the second month in a row. The best-selling L9 for the ideal, breaking through 400000 is on the one hand, and more importantly, the ideal continues to the best-selling second model, which has the significance of establishing the brand temperament.

But the real test is yet to come, ideal for the 200000 or even 100000-level market launch of new cars can still be successful, that is a more crucial step. So far, only Tesla has done it.

In 2021, Wei Xiaoli's annual sales volume is 90,000, and this year's target is set at 150000, with an increase of 50%; the ideal is set at 200000, an increase of 100%; and Xiaopeng is set at 250000, an increase of 150%. In the first 10 months of this year, their sales were fixed at 92493, 96979 and 103654, respectively.

At least 50% of the incremental target clearly defines the difference between them and traditional car companies, which want growth, but new cars want earth-shaking, quickly and visually gobble up the original share of fuel vehicles. Judging from the results of this year, this goal has not yet been achieved.

But there's no need to make a fuss. Due to the instability of production capacity and supply, sales fluctuations are commonplace for Wei Xiaoli. In retrospect, one month everyone said that "Xiaopeng closed the gap" and the next month they said "Wei Lai ushered in a crisis." I don't know how many times this has happened. For them, the loss of this year is entirely bearable, and the real threat is the strong entry of Huawei, which is expected to be a big deal. Wei Xiaoli, who used to play the role of predator, then had to take on another role: prey.

In the final analysis, insiders should be sharp and should not miss any opportunities or loopholes. As spectators, we might as well be insensitive. It's only 2022. It's a long time ago.

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: autocarweekly (ID:autocarweekly) article | plums from West Asia

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