Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

According to CTOnews.com news on November 8, the passenger Association today released an analysis of the national passenger car market in October 2022. In terms of new energy, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 676000 in October, an increase of 85.8% over the same period last year and 0.4% month-on-month. Under the policy of halving car purchase tax, new energy vehicles were not only unaffected, but continued to improve better than expected. From January to October, 5.015 million new energy passenger vehicles were wholesale, an increase of 110.8% over the same period last year. Retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 556000 in October, an increase of 75.2% over the same period last year, down 9.0% from January to October. From January to October, there were 4.432 million domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles, an increase of 107.5% over the same period last year.

In the new energy vehicle market, the supply improvement superimposed by the rising oil prices is expected to bring about a hot market, with oil prices rising and electricity prices locked, driving the performance of electric vehicle orders to continue to be strong. CTOnews.com learned that the month-on-month trend of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles in October were affected by individual measures, changing the law of booming sales at the end of the year and forming a relatively insipid "Golden Nine and Silver Ten".

1) Wholesale: the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers in October was 30.8%, 12 percentage points higher than the 18.4% penetration rate in October 2021. In October, the penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles was 47.7%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury cars was 31.4%; while that of mainstream joint venture brands was only 4.7%. Wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles in October were 508000, up 69.6% from the same period last year, while plug-in hybrid sales were 167000, up 161.6% from the same period last year. Sales of Class B electric vehicles in October were 132000, up 62% from the same period last year, down 8% from the previous month, accounting for 26% of pure electric vehicles. The economical electric vehicle market of A00+A0 in the pure electric market is also on the rise, with A00 wholesale sales of 128000 vehicles, up 25% year on year, 5% month-on-month growth, accounting for 25% of pure electric; A0 wholesale sales of 100000, accounting for 20% of pure electric; A-class electric vehicles account for 27% of pure electric; all levels of electric vehicle sales are relatively balanced.

In October, BYD Song reached 56843, Wuling Hongguang MINI reached 47868, and ModelY sales reached 41488, ranking among the top three overall passenger car sales.

2) Retail: the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in October is 30.2%, which is 11 percentage points higher than the 18.5% penetration rate in October 2021. In October, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands was 52.9%; that of luxury cars was 13.6%; and that of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands was only 4.6%. In terms of monthly domestic retail share, the retail share of mainstream independent brands of new energy vehicles in October was 63%, up 2.1% from the same period last year; the share of joint venture brand new energy vehicles was 3.9%, down 2.5% from the same period last year; and the share of new power was 11.4%, down 2.9% from the same period last year. Tesla's share was 2.5%, down 1.2%. New energy vehicles with a starting price of less than 100000 per cent in October accounted for 28 per cent, down 6 percentage points from October last year; 46 per cent from 100,000 to 200,000, up 5 percentage points; 19 per cent from 200,000, up 3 percentage points from the same period last year; 3.3 per cent from 300,000, down 1 percentage point; and over 400000 accounted for 3.9 per cent, an increase of 2 percentage points.

3) Export: 103000 new energy passenger vehicles were exported in October. With the support of the policy of resuming work and production under the epidemic, more and more Chinese-made brands of new energy products go abroad, and their recognition abroad continues to improve as well as the improvement of the service network. The market prospect is good. In October, Tesla exported 54504 vehicles from China, 18688 new energy exports from SAIC passenger cars, 10785 from Dongfeng Egett, 9529 from BYD, 2496 from Geely, 1552 from Great Wall, 1457 from Shenlong and 1098 from Skyworth, 1087 from SAIC General Motors Wuling, 445 from Dongfeng passenger vehicles, 373 from Aiqi, 307 from FAW Red Flag, 228 from Jianghuai Automobile and 158 from SAIC Chase. Other car companies also have a small amount of new energy exports. From the overseas market retail data monitoring of self-export, SAIC and other independent brands have a strong performance in Europe. In addition to the beautiful performance of traditional export car companies, the recent export of new forces has also been gradually launched, and overseas markets have begun to show data.

4) car companies: the new energy passenger car market reached an all-time high in October, and BYD's pure electric and plug-in twin drives consolidate the leading position of its own brand in new energy; traditional car companies represented by SAIC, Guangzhou Automobile, Dongfeng, Geely, Chery and Great Wall have performed prominently in the new energy sector. In terms of product launch, with the multi-line development of independent car companies on the new energy route, the market base continues to expand, and 15 enterprises have wholesale sales exceeding 10,000 vehicles (unchanged from the previous month, an increase of 8 over the same period last year), accounting for 84.6% of the total new energy passenger vehicles. Among them: 217518 BYD cars, 71704 Tesla China, 52086 SAIC GM Wuling, 35058 Changan cars, 31070 Geely cars, 30063 Guangzhou Automobile EAN, 27164 SAIC passenger vehicles, 18,301 Chery vehicles, 18,016 Nezha cars, 13,616 Dongfeng Egeter, 12040 Jinkang New Energy, 10,954 Great Wall cars, 10059 Lai cars, 10052 ideal cars and 10032 Dongfeng passenger vehicles.

5) New forces: the retail share of new forces accounted for 11.4% in October, down 2.9 percentage points from the same period last year. Nezha, ideal, Zero, Weilai, Xiaopeng, Weima and other new forces still have strong year-on-year and month-on-month performance. In particular, the performance of Nezha in the second camp is strong, which is also the advantage of the market segment track. Among the mainstream joint venture brands, North and South Volkswagen is in the lead, with 16771 new energy vehicles wholesale, accounting for 53.8% of the mainstream joint venture pure electric. Volkswagen's firm electric transformation strategy is beginning to bear fruit. Other joint ventures and luxury brands still need to be launched.

6) General mix: in October, 67362 ordinary hybrid passenger cars were wholesale, an increase of 9% over the same period last year, and a month-on-month decrease of 16%. Among them, 37180 are Toyota, 17153 are Honda, 5391 are Dongfeng passenger cars, 4982 are GAC MOTOR, 1211 are Nissan, and 1203 are Geely. The independent brand of hybrid power is gradually strengthening.

The following is the overall review of the national passenger car market in October.

Retail: retail sales in the passenger car market reached 1.84 million in October 2022, an increase of 7.3% over the same period last year, with steady growth; retail sales fell 4.3% in October from the previous month, the first month-on-month decline in "Golden Nine and Silver 10" since 2013. Retail sales totaled 16.716 million vehicles from January to October, an increase of 3.0 percent over the same period last year and a net increase of 482000 vehicles over the same period last year, including an increase of 1.56 million vehicles from June to October since the launch of the car purchase tax preferential policy, making a huge incremental contribution.

Due to the continuous improvement of logistics and supply chain, abundant channel inventory, and the gradual elimination of the base impact of chip outages last year, all these have effectively stabilized the growth of the auto market. However, the market pressure of conventional fuel vehicles is still great in the near future. Retail sales of conventional passenger cars (excluding new energy vehicles) nationwide were 1.28 million in October, down 8 per cent from a year earlier, reversing the positive growth of 6 per cent from June to September this year. The conventional fuel vehicle market retailed 12.28 million vehicles from January to October, down 13% from a year earlier. Fuel vehicles are the demand for people's livelihood vehicles, and new energy vehicles are the improved demand for additional purchases. At present, the consumer demand of low-income first-purchase groups still needs to be released, and the policy should be more inclined to fuel vehicles.

The promotion intensity of the car market remained high in October, and the mainstream car companies have added preferential activities to make up for the sales loss caused by the epidemic and strive for the best results of the expected quarterly target.

Luxury car retail sales in October were 210000, up 16% from a year earlier and down 29% from the previous month. The policy of halving the car purchase tax will greatly promote the upgrading of high-end consumption.

Self-branded retail sales of 940000 vehicles in October, up 22% from the same period last year and 5% month-on-month. The domestic retail share of independent brands in October was 51.5%, an increase of 6.0% over the same period last year, and the cumulative share from January to October was 52%, an increase of 11.4% over the same period in 2021. The wholesale market share of independent brands in October was 53.8%, an increase of 6.1 percentage points over the same period last year, and the cumulative share of independent brands from January to October was 49%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points over the same period in 2021. Independent brands have achieved a significant increase in the new energy market and export market, the transformation and upgrading performance of traditional car companies in the head is excellent, and the brand share of traditional car companies such as BYD Automobile, Geely Automobile, Changan Automobile and Chery Automobile has increased significantly.

Retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands in October were 700000, down 9 per cent from a year earlier and 6 per cent month-on-month. In October, the retail share of German brands was 19.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the same period last year, and the retail share of Japanese brands was 18.9%, down 3.7 percentage points from the same period last year. The retail share of American brands reached 7%, down 1.7 percentage points from the same period last year.

Exports: 270000 passenger cars (including complete vehicles and CKD) were exported in October, an increase of 42% year-on-year and 13% month-on-month. New energy vehicles accounted for 39% of total exports in October. Exports from independent brands reached 194000 in October, up 46 per cent from the same month last year and down 5 per cent from September, while exports from joint ventures and luxury brands were 75000, up 32 per cent from the same period last year. A total of 1.86 million passenger cars were exported from January to October, an increase of 57%. Independent brands have made a comprehensive breakthrough in the export of their own brands to European and American markets and third world markets, and the China base export strategy of international brands is also increasingly reflected.

Production: 2.277 million passenger cars were produced in October, up 16.3% from the same period last year, down 3.6% from the previous month. Among them, luxury brand production increased by 28% year-on-year, down 11% from the previous year; joint venture brand production increased by 1% year-on-year, down 4% from the same period last year; and independent brand production increased by 26%, down 1% from the same period last year. From January to October, car companies produced 19.148 million vehicles, an increase of 17.9 percent over the same period last year.

In October, the main independent enterprises made strong efforts to increase production. BYD Automobile, Geely Automobile, Chang'an Automobile, and Great Wall Motor all increased by more than 8% month-on-month, and performed well in traditional cars, new energy, exports, and so on.

Wholesale: wholesale sales of 2.191 million vehicles in October, up 11.0% from the same period last year, down 4.6% from the previous month. Driven by the new energy market, the performance of some car companies is obviously divided. Wholesale sales from January to October reached 18.893 million vehicles, an increase of 14.0% over the same period last year.

Manufacturers leading sales of BYD, Geely and Changan are also the top three incremental contributions in October last year, while Chery and Great Wall also have a strong increase.

Inventory: October's production and sales are not as smooth as September, forming a push production and sales trend that manufacturers' wholesale output is lower than 90,000 vehicles, and manufacturers' domestic wholesale is higher than retail's 80,000 vehicles. The wholesale growth of manufacturers from May to October lays the foundation for the strong growth of expected retail sales at the end of the year.

The inventory of manufacturers has been replenished rapidly since the fourth quarter of 2021, with a cumulative replenishment of nearly 250000 from January to October in 2022, of which the inventory replenishment from May to October is relatively large. Manufacturer inventory: due to the implementation of the purchase tax halving policy in June, the incremental contribution of manufacturers' reserve inventory has been greater since May. The inventory of manufacturers increased by 90,000 vehicles month-on-month in October, with a cumulative increase of 250000 vehicles from January to October, while the inventory of manufacturers decreased by 320000 vehicles from January to October in 2021. Channel inventory: in October, channel inventory increased by 80,000 vehicles compared with the previous month, and channel inventory increased by 320000 vehicles from January to October, which was in sharp contrast to the decrease of 830000 vehicles from January to October in 2021.

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