Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

"Tesla dropped the price so suddenly that all the cars in his hand were about to fall into his hands."

When it comes to new energy vehicles, I believe the first word in the minds of many people is price increases. Indeed, nearly a year, due to the rising cost of raw materials and other problems, new energy vehicles once "rise" constantly. Among them, Tesla raised the price six times in a row in a short period of one year.

However, last week Tesla suddenly announced that the price of Model 3 and Model Y models would be reduced by between 14000 yuan and 37000 yuan, involving a total of 5 hot configurations in the market. Among them, the long-lasting version of Model Y has a drop of nearly 10%.

At first glance, Tesla's price reduction is good news for consumers who have not yet mentioned or bought cars. But for the car owner who has just picked up the car, it is undoubtedly "bad news"-before the car is hot, he has lost 20,000 to 30,000 yuan. Therefore, there are also some car owners who have not picked up the car soon to launch a "rights protection" action against Tesla's official price reduction.

In fact, there are also those who resent Tesla's price reduction because of the failure of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" and turn to prepare for the peak season at the end of the year, with a large number of quasi-new car dealers in their hands. Some second-hand car dealers even complain that in the past year, they are about to be completely driven crazy by the sharp rise and fall in the prices of new energy vehicles.

"01" Tesla reduced the price, consumers "buy the new or not buy the old"? "A week after Guan Xuan reduced the price, the store only sold a 20-year-old Model 3."

As the peak season for used cars at the end of the year approached, Xiao Xie, who runs a used car business in Xili, Shenzhen, looked at the more than 20 Tesla parked in the store, feeling quite depressed.

He said helplessly that in the last week, the topic of peer chat in the car city was how the second-hand Tesla inventory in the store could not be smashed in the hands.

After a year of "six consecutive increases", Tesla's price trend in the second-hand car market also rose. At present, in the second-hand market, the price of the 2021 standard afterdrive Model 3 is about 210000 yuan, and the price of a new car in 2022 can even reach 230000.

Similarly, the second-hand price of the 2021 Model Y standard afterdrive version is around 250,000, and quasi-new cars in less than a year can sometimes sell for 26,000,000 or 270,000.

In the eyes of car dealers, the original second-hand prices of these two cars are very fragrant, and they are also the most popular models in the second-hand new energy vehicle market.

"however, after the recent official price reduction of new cars, the price gap between used cars, quasi-new cars and new cars is getting smaller and smaller." Xiao Xie sighed that after the price reduction of Tesla Guanxuan model, many customers who had seen the car before turned to a wait-and-see attitude.

After all, it is also a standard afterdrive version, with the reduced price of the new car (Model 3) only 265900 and the Model Y only 288900. Therefore, consumers who originally planned to buy a second-hand Model 3 can buy a brand new car by paying an extra 30,000 to 50,000 yuan.

For Model Y, which has a greater price reduction, the current price of new cars is infinitely close to that of 90% of new second-hand cars. The only advantage is that you can pick up a used car without waiting. But even so, the price advantage of used cars is gone.

"you know, the longer the used car is covered, the higher the inventory and maintenance costs will be, and the price will continue to go down. At that time, the loss will be greater, and the impulse can only be reduced. Tesla's profits are now high, but only 20,000 to 30,000, a drop of 10,000 or 20,000, sales can rush, but (car dealers) have little profit."

What makes Xiao Xie even more depressed is that the price reduction of Tesla's new car indirectly affects the sales of other new energy used cars. In the eyes of many consumers, Tesla is the "weather vane" of the new energy vehicle industry. Once the "wind vane" cuts prices, consumers are bound to wait and see whether other brands can follow suit.

Although after Tesla announced the price reduction, many independent brands said they would not follow suit: the only brand that had been revealed by consumers that "the tail model of the new car had dropped by thousands of yuan" quickly responded that it was just a coincidence-but it was still difficult to dispel the wait-and-see mood of consumers.

After all, no one wants to be a "bad guy". What's more, the story of "here comes the Wolf" has not been staged in the new energy automobile industry.

As early as the first half of this year, when a number of new energy vehicles announced price increases one after another, some independent brands "insisted" not to follow the trend, and even regarded "price protection" as a gimmick to win the favor of consumers. But in the end, I still couldn't bear the "cost pressure" and raised the price.

Some second-hand car dealers believe that the wait-and-see sentiment triggered by Tesla's price reduction may affect the sales of other new energy used cars or even new car markets within one or two months, which adds some uncertainty to the second-hand car dealers' impulse at the end of the year.

"02" ups and downs behind the "preservation rate bubble"next (car dealers) may be frightened to accept second-hand new energy vehicles."

Like Xiao Xie, boss Zhou, a second-hand car dealer in Guangzhou, is worried about Tesla's official price reduction. However, what made him even more depressed was that when he complained in his moments about the price reduction of Tesla's new car, affecting the sales of second-hand new energy vehicles, some friends left a message satirizing him that he "couldn't afford to play."

Some people in the circle believe that the sharp rise in the prices of new energy vehicles in the first half of this year pushed up the prices of used cars, and no one spoke when the car dealers made a fortune. Now that Tesla has cut prices and the sales of new energy used cars are under pressure, some automakers are beginning to complain that they are not worthy of pity.

So, with the rising prices of new energy vehicles, are second-hand car dealers really making a lot of money as netizens guess?

In this regard, Boss Zhou shook his head and said, "it's a bit of a profit, but not a big one." After all, before the price rise of new energy vehicles, automakers did not buy a large number of new energy used cars at low prices because of depreciation rates, warranty policies and other issues.

"in March this year, when the price of new energy and new cars rose most sharply, there were only five or six new energy used cars in our store, accounting for 5% of all used cars in the store. Later, when the demand for used new energy cars became large, they dared to charge more."

According to his recollection, in the first half of this year, due to the rising prices of new energy cars and slow car lifting, many consumers turned to buy used cars, such as Tesla, BYD, Wuling and other mainstream new energy used cars, and the prices were also quickly increased.

However, before the prices of new cars have risen one after another, most consumers who have bought cheap cars are reluctant to sell second-hand cars, resulting in rising purchase prices of second-hand new energy vehicles. For car dealers, in addition to the higher profits of the new energy used cars acquired before the price rise, the cars sold later are expensive and expensive to sell.

"if the selling price is high and the price is high, the gross profit of the second-hand car is still about 10%, but the turnover is fast." Boss Zhou said frankly that since the beginning of this year, the value preservation rate of new energy vehicles has increased, which also proves that second-hand car dealers do not charge low and sell high. "many popular models have higher value preservation rates than fuel vehicles."

The "Research report on the value preservation rate of Chinese cars in July 2022" released by the China Automobile Circulation Association shows that the value preservation rate of new energy vehicles is stable. The three-year preservation rate of mainstream new energy models has exceeded 50%, and the annual preservation rate is more than 75%.

You know, from 2018 to 2020, the three-year preservation rate of most new energy vehicles is only 30%. Although the increase in value preservation rate is supported by factors such as the improvement of industry technology, the increase of battery energy density, and the increase in battery life, Boss Zhou said that the "value preservation rate bubble" caused by the rise in the price of new energy and new cars should not be ignored.

He takes an A0-class pure electric car with a guide price of 75000 yuan after several price increases in 2022 as an example. at present, the 2019 model, which is similar to the latest 2022 models, has a used car price of 48000 yuan. You know, the guiding price of the 2019 model that year is about 68000 yuan.

According to this calculation, the three-year depreciation rate of the car is more than 70%. Without the impact of the price rise in the first half of the year, Boss Zhou said that the current normal price of the 2019 model of the car should be around 35000 yuan. In other words, if the price of the new car is stable within three years, the preservation rate of the 2022 model may plunge after three years.

It is precisely because of the "preservation rate bubble" of new energy used cars, coupled with Tesla's sudden price reduction, is equivalent to a wake-up call for second-hand car dealers. For this week, the boss has reason to believe that after more than half a year of "recovery", the mood of cautious acquisition will once again hang over the new energy used car market.

Is the "warming up" of "03" new energy used cars a flash in the pan? In fact, in the eyes of people in the industry, although the rise in the price of new energy cars has contributed to the "pick-up" of the new energy used car market-the increase in demand and sales, it seems that there is still a long way to go before the market really breaks out.

In June this year, the trading volume of used new energy vehicles was 31000, up 22.4% from the previous month, and the ratio of used cars to new cars was 6.2%, which is still lower than the overall level of the industry, with a cumulative trading volume of 154000 units in the first half of this year, with a market share of only 2%, according to data from Dasou Zhiyun platform.

The main factors affecting the development of the new energy used car market are not only the low consumer recognition, but also the erratic price of new cars. After all, the price of used cars follows the trend of new car prices to a certain extent, and the guidance price of new cars rises and falls greatly, which determines the relationship between supply and demand in the used car market.

"the price of new energy and new cars is destined to be as stable and traceable as fuel cars in the short term." Mr. Zhao, an industry insider who has been working in a used car trade for nearly a decade, said that except for a small number of Japanese cars whose prices have increased due to "faith", the prices of most fuel vehicles have declined linearly after they have been listed and modified.

When a 100000-yuan fuel vehicle is on the market for half a year, the terminal will often have a discount of 5,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan, while the annual change, the guidance price will be 3000,000yuan higher than that of the previous generation, and the guidance price for small changes will even remain the same. "the price of new cars has been stable for a long time. The market can simply estimate the price trend of used cars through the conventional preservation rate."

Therefore, Mr. Zhao pointed out: even if the turnaround time of fuel vehicles is a little longer, car dealers are not worried about falling into their hands, at most they will earn less in the later stage.

But new energy vehicles are destined to be as stable as fuel cars for a long time. Due to the existence of power batteries, the price of new energy vehicles is greatly affected by raw materials.

"the whole body of the fuel truck is covered with iron bumps, and the only thing that guides the price is the chip, but the impact is small." Mr. Zhao believes that the prices of new energy vehicles either rise several times a year, or cut prices unexpectedly, with a range of thousands or tens of thousands of yuan. For car dealers, the risk of car closure is too great.

Once the turnaround time of new energy used cars is lengthened, car dealers do not know which will come first to make money or lose money. For this week, the boss also admitted that the development of the new energy used car market is far from enough to rely solely on the upgrading of industry technology and increased confidence in the consumer market.

[conclusion] ensuring the supply chain system of raw materials and stabilizing the guidance price of new energy vehicles is also one of the key factors. Otherwise, even if the demand for new energy vehicles soars and consumers dare to buy new energy used cars, in the secondary market, car dealers are cautious to stop because they do not know the price trend of used cars, and the prospect is still difficult to predict.

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: know Notes (ID:dongdong_note), author: Dingchun, Editor: Qin Yan

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