Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

No one expected that China's new energy vehicle market would develop so rapidly in 2022.

In the first three quarters of 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 471.7 million and 4.567 million respectively, an increase of 1.2 times and 1.1 times respectively over the same period last year. Both production and sales have greatly exceeded the level of the whole of last year, with a market share of 23.5%, and the industry's forecast was completed three years ahead of schedule.

This is a key node, because from past experience such as smartphones and mobile payments, when a category penetration reaches 20%, it means that it will enter the fast lane that will occupy the market, and its market inflection point will come.

In the "Wei Xiaoli" (Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal Automobile) these car-making 1.0 enterprises have verified the feasibility, car-making 2.0 enterprises are stepping up the pace. Huawei United Cyrus launched a good response to the market, Ningde era-backed Avita also completed 5000 orders in 10 days, Nezha and polar krypton delivered 18,000 vehicles and 10000 vehicles respectively in the past October. GAC sold more than 30,000 vehicles in October. They want to gain more market share as soon as possible.

The current new car track is undoubtedly a game racing against the time window. He Xiaopeng, founder and chairman of Xiaopeng Automobile, said on CCTV's "Dialogue" program at the end of 2021 that the next reshuffle moment for the new energy car industry may be between the end of 2023 and 2025. He Xiaopeng called it the new car 2.0 era.

However, with the arrival of the turning point in the market ahead of time, when the cars and millet cars are mass-produced and delivered, the competition will be much fiercer than originally expected, how much more can they eat?

Cross-border car building, several joys and sorrows collectively announced that almost two years later, "waves after building cars" have begun to hand in papers one after another.

The fastest is Jidu. On October 27, 605 days after it was officially announced that the car was built, Xia Yiping, CEO of Jidu, introduced the limited version of ROBO-1, the first car robot, to users online. The SUV costs 399800 yuan.

Xia Yiping said that Jidu is best at making breakthroughs in software and intelligence, so all the intelligent capabilities of the ROBO-1 lunar exploration version are equipped at the top, and the whole system is standard, and the entry-level version is standard lidar.

The booking may have exceeded expectations, and at the end of the conference, ROBO-1, which had only 1000 reservations, added another 1000 seats.

With the joint efforts of Geely and Baidu, Jidu launched its first car in two years and will launch its first Volkswagen production car at the Guangzhou Auto Show in November.

But the market feedback doesn't seem friendly. After the launch of the new car, there was a heated discussion among Jidu's potential users. Some booking users think that the rights and interests of Jidu are not enough. A number of potential users said that other families are five times the "expansion money", but the set degree is to draw the "expansion money" like a lottery, each person's expansion multiple is different, the highest is five times. Some users think it is expensive, if it is 5 times the expansion gold, it is 25000, down is 374800, this price is acceptable. In just three days, the group of 200 people lost 20 people.

However, before the actual delivery of the new car, these can be improved, after all, the pricing is metaphysics, Xiaopeng G9 has only been on the market for two days, and there is still time to adjust the concentration of the first-mover advantage.

Apart from Jidu, the most concerned "wave after building a car" is Xiaomi. Unlike Huawei and Baidu, which teamed up with Cyrus and Geely to speed up the launch of new cars, Xiaomi did not choose to cooperate with mature car companies or contract manufacturing, but chose to build their own factories. This means more difficulty, longer time, and the need for stronger financial reserves.

Rice noodles expect Xiaomi to build the first new energy car for young people. At present, Xiaomi has completed the engineering prototype, which means that the development of the whole vehicle has entered the end, followed by the trial installation of the simulated prototype and the testing of the engineering car.

Xiaomi is likely to be officially qualified to build a car around June to July 2023. At the same time, if all goes well, Xiaomi's first all-electric car will be in mass production in 2024.

Evergrande, which began building cars in 2018, finally launched its first production model, Hengchi 5, in July this year amid concerns about the financial situation of its parent company Evergrande Group. Although it was criticized as having a head like an agricultural tractor, at the end of October, the cash-strapped Evergrande delivered the first batch of 100 Hengchi 5 cars on a slightly humble vacant lot.

The Avita 11, supported by Changan Automobile, Ningde Times and Huawei, has ushered in the first batch of car owners, exceeding 5000 in 10 days. The new energy car brand founded by Mavericks founder Li Yinan has announced that the luxury medium-and large-sized city exploration SUV has been officially launched by traveler NV. Although the car has received many complaints, it will also be delivered in December 2022.

The killer mace of "wave after building a car", "Wei Xiaoli", even if they need to face new questions every year, it does not prevent them from building a strong mind in the minds of users-Wei depends on user experience, Xiaopeng relies on intelligent route, and ideal is the first choice of "nanny" users.

Not only that, Nezha, which runs through this year, is now the first choice for users in third-and fourth-tier cities, while Xiaomi is one step ahead of time to make the concept of intelligent cockpit deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.

What do the "waves after building cars" rely on to attract users has become one of the keys to their impact on the existing pattern.

On the first day of its establishment, Xia Yiping had a general judgment on the first car. He hopes that the car will have a strong self-driving ability, voice ability and intelligent ability, "essentially a robot." Xia Yiping's expectation is to deliver a car robot on time in 2023, which has the best user experience, quality and cost advantages, and defines the highest level of intelligent car robot in China.

For now, however, early users of Jidu's latest limited version of lunar exploration do not seem satisfied. An early booking user of the lunar exploration version said he thought the price of 399800 was too high without 800V overcharging and air suspension. Intelligent or intelligent driving is more like futures for some users. Some users choose to unsubscribe after the launch of the lunar version, and most of them have a target price of 350000.

"the current price and configuration of the lunar exploration version is the 8295 chip and Apollo autopilot enablement, although it is the first model equipped with this chip, but by the time it is mass produced next year, many cars may have 8295 chips, only autopilot," one lunar exploration target user said.

Obviously, it is difficult for users to pay for autopilot alone, and Jiedu still needs to make up lessons in hardware and design.

Xiaomi's killer mace was smart life at first.

At the initial press conference, Xiaomi's original intention was to "use high-quality intelligent electric vehicles to enable users around the world to enjoy a ubiquitous intelligent life." in other words, Xiaomi car-building is not just a car, but a part of Xiaomi's overall intelligent ecology. it is one of the key scenes and core nodes of intelligent life.

At the press conference, Lei Jun spent a lot of energy to introduce the imagination of Xiaomi smart home in the car cockpit, and to this end, he also built an RV assembled by Xiaomi smart home.

But at the press conference two months ago, Lei Jun repeatedly mentioned autopilot rather than intelligent ecology.

Unlike the previously reported progress of Xiaomi car construction, Lei Jun said that the current research and development of Xiaomi car is going very smoothly and exceeded expectations. Lei Jun believes that self-driving is the key to the decisive victory of smart cars. Xiaomi self-driving will also adopt the full stack self-developed algorithm.

Huawei has blown up Xiaomi's concept of smart cockpit, and it is difficult for Xiaomi to tell a better cockpit story outside Huawei Hongmeng's smart cockpit, an industry insider said on the snowball.

Obviously, self-driving is not familiar to Xiaomi, and Baidu is still the leader in self-driving in China. However, an industry insider said that it is difficult to judge how much room Xiaomi still has, Xiaomi is a little late in mass production, and it is difficult to say the price of batteries in the next few years, but loyal "rice noodles" are the most potential buyers.

Other players in "waves after car Building" are also exploring the path of differentiation.

Stone technology founder Changjing himself is keen on off-road vehicles, the first car of its Luoke car has chosen to take the same incremental route as ideal, and the positioning of the standard Mercedes-Benz G series off-road models, with a range of more than 1000 kilometers, is a category blank that is currently lacking in the market.

It is worth noting that with more and more players of new energy vehicles, consumers can choose more and more targets. In the scenario of "comparison of goods and goods", any single bright spot may not be able to stimulate consumers' desire to buy. Consumers need to have other bright spots at the same time as the excellent performance of self-driving.

This is a test for the "wave after building a car" and even all new energy vehicles.

The new force of car building is speeding up, and the window period is shortened by 2021 years. Tesla sold 936000 cars in the whole year, half of which is more than three times that of "Wei Xiaoli" combined. In terms of quantity, BYD is not enough to compete with Tesla. Nezha and Zero are still exploring the mode and have not yet entered the mainstream vision. At that time, the domestic penetration rate of new energy vehicles had just reached 10%.

At that time, it was an excellent window, similar to the situation when Lei Jun set up Xiaomi Group to enter smartphones-the curtain of smartphones had just begun, and the penetration rate was about 10%. Apple was the first to launch the popular smartphone iPhone, but it was not as uniform as it is now, while most domestic smartphones are miscellaneous brands or knockoffs, and there is no "machine king".

A large number of "post-car waves", such as Jidu and Xiaomi, entered at this time, because the industry forecasts that the compound annual growth rate of new energy vehicles is 34.2%, and the penetration rate will reach about 20% by 2025.

20% is a key point, or tipping point. Because, once the user penetration reaches 20%, it is very easy to get twice the result with half the effort. This means that the market size of new energy vehicles will increase greatly after 2025.

According to this time node, "wave after car building" just has 4 years to realize the process from team, engineering sample car to mass production and delivery, which is also in line with the law of automobile production, such as Lai, Xiaopeng, ideal car, it is such a time period to complete the excessive.

Let's take a look at the mass production and delivery speed planned by the "wave after building the car". Jidu will begin delivery of Q3 in 2023, Stone Technology's first car will be offline and mass production in the first half of 2024, and Xiaomi plans to deliver the first car in 2024.

Although "Wei Xiaoli" may not be able to break through the annual delivery of 100000 vehicles this year, BYD has advanced by leaps and bounds, and the first three sets have already delivered 1.18 million vehicles, which is more than the total of Wei Xiaoli, Nezha, Zero, Lantu, Jihu and other enterprises combined. Next year, if the production capacity does not pull hip, the new energy vehicles that have broken through the key points will engulf the market of fuel vehicles, and there is still more than a year to go before the "wave after building" cars are handed over.

An employee of a car-building new power company admitted to Tech that now everyone is more cautious about joining the "wave after building a car", even Xiaomi, which has a large number of loyal users. The reason is that most of these enterprises have no experience in building cars, and their departure time is not early, and the market gives limited room for trial and error. For new energy vehicles, mass production is almost the biggest threshold in the early stage, and only after mass production can they be regarded as a qualified car company. Few people are willing to make a mistake.

The penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles ranges from 0% to 5%, which takes 10 years; from 5% to 10%, it takes only half a year; and the permeability from 10% to 20% also takes less than a year. The future may be faster, and the time window left for "waves after building cars" is getting shorter and shorter.

But the charm of the business world is that competition between companies is not based on theory, and even if the window is getting shorter and shorter, there is always an unexpected force to break the pattern. The person who first eats crabs may not eat the most crabs.

This article is from the official account of Wechat: Tech (ID:tech618), by Wang Lin

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