Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

According to CTOnews.com news on November 2, TrendForce Jibang Consulting said that global shipments of notebooks in the fourth quarter of 2022 are likely to decline to 42.9 million units, down 7.2% from the previous quarter and 32.3% from the same period last year, which is lower than the level of the same period before the epidemic. In addition, market demand was hit by negative factors such as inventory adjustment, Russian-Ukrainian conflict and high inflation, which led to the revision of notebook market shipments to 189 million units in 2022, down 23% from the same period last year, and the proportion of shipments in the first and second half of the year was 53:47, the first top-heavy trend in nearly a decade.

According to the survey, the structural imbalance between supply and demand in the notebook market is still unsolved, so shipments are decreasing quarter by quarter this year, and terminal elimination is expected to continue until at least the first half of 2023. TrendForce Jibang Consulting believes that after inventory pressure gradually returns to a healthy water level at this stage, Chromebook may be the first wave of demand recovery products in the second quarter of next year, the traditional cyclical growth momentum is expected to return to the market, and shipments will rise slightly to 16.2 million units compared with 14.44 million units in 2022.

In view of the above, the consumer and commercial notebook market will continue to be under pressure, although the former demand after five quarters of adjustment, the peak season momentum is expected to play an important role, coupled with the introduction of the new CPU, consumer notebook shipments are expected to return to the traditional peak season demand track in the second half of 2023, but the annual pattern is still unable to escape recession On the other hand, after the commercial demand is faced with the enterprise epidemic and the rising interest rate of the US dollar leads to a rise in corporate financing and lending rates, which in turn adjusts the reduction of capital expenditure and layoffs, the decline will be even greater than that of consumer laptops.

In addition, although the dividend effect of the epidemic has gradually faded, leading to a slight decline in the growth power of the high-end laptop market in 2022, TrendForce Ji Bang Consulting has still observed that notebooks such as e-competition and creative laptops are still cash cow. In the face of the dilemma that global notebook shipments are gradually declining, the market segment with high gross margin has become even more outstanding. Notebook manufacturers and processor brands such as Intel and Nvidia are all competing to expand, enhancing the consumer experience by means of high specification and customization, while stimulating the potential demand of the market, becoming a category of laptops that can continue to grow in the future.

However, inflationary pressures and geographical issues are still the uncertainties of the general environment, bearing the brunt of the consumer electronics field, the future shipping scale of the notebook market still needs to closely refer to the relevant changes. According to TrendForce Ji Bang Consulting observation, based on the tedious and huge industrial settlement characteristics of notebook parts, only large American manufacturers actively promote their production layout in Vietnam, and other brands and ODM factories have not started to promote it in the short term.

Affected by the global economic downturn, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts economic growth of about 2.7% in 2023, a further 0.5 percentage point lower than in 2022. Overall, CTOnews.com learned that the report predicts that the global laptop market will show no signs of picking up for the time being in 2023, even though the annual decline in shipments has converged to 6.9%, but only 176 million units.

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