Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

With the popularization of electric vehicles, the pricing rules of new energy vehicles are more and more closely related to us, and it is also the direction of reform in the field of automobile finance for a long time in the future.

A while ago, the industry triggered a controversy about the zero-integer ratio of new energy vehicles. After an accident occurred to the owner of a polar star Polestar 2, the vehicle maintenance quotation was as high as 540,000 yuan, while the total price of the new car did not exceed 300,000 yuan. Many car owners will ask why the insurance pricing of parts and components of new energy vehicles is much higher than that of whole vehicle parts, why the insurance price of their own vehicles is so high and the residual value is so low.

In fact, a series of problems such as zero integration ratio of new energy vehicles, fixed loss price, financial credit, residual value of used cars can be attributed to the pricing problem of new energy vehicles. Today, Lao Li and everyone talk about why the service reform lags behind the industrial reform? Who will price new energy vehicles? How will the future industry go?

In recent years, we have all said that the automobile industry has started industrial transformation. There is a criterion in industrial economics, that is, the transformation of industry will inevitably bring about the transformation of derivative business, and the transformation of derivative business will promote the transformation of social service. The current new energy automobile industry has encountered the bottleneck from industrial transformation to service transformation.

With the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the industrial transformation has reached a stage of full swing. However, the transformation of derivative business around new energy vehicles has just begun, and reasonable pricing of vehicles is an important part of derivative business.

For consumers, besides the role of travel tools, cars are more like an asset. How to correctly and reasonably price assets is not only related to the vital interests of car owners, but also related to the development of automobile and even financial field.

From a macro perspective, new energy vehicles will act as financial regulators. Three years ago, Lao Li's partner once said that at present, the real estate industry is essentially financial attribute, real estate plays the role of national economic regulation; in the future, the new energy automobile industry will also play the same role, new energy vehicles will have financial attributes. In recent years, the industry has been promoting the integration of new energy vehicles and energy. In the future, new energy vehicles will serve as energy terminals and play a regulatory role in the energy industry. The role of financial regulators is similar to that of new energy vehicles.

What are the most important indicators in the financial sector? Pricing. The macro-perspective financial regulator falls into the micro-perspective is the pricing problem of new energy vehicles, that is, how to evaluate the value of a new energy vehicle?

In the vehicle pricing of traditional vehicles, the most common word mentioned by everyone is vehicle hedging rate.

What is vehicle hedging ratio? It refers to the ratio between the transaction price and the guidance price of new car after the automobile is used for a period of time. The hedging rate depends on many factors such as vehicle condition, brand and new car price. After 2010, the pricing rules of traditional automobile industry become clearer.

All the time, in the automobile use stage, the pricing of vehicles has various application scenarios, from B-end automobile enterprises, dealers, second-hand car dealers, financial institutions, insurance institutions to C-end consumers, everyone needs to determine the value of a car in their respective business and transaction scenarios. There is no secret in the value evaluation method of traditional fuel vehicles. Historical transaction data gives us a lot of reference information and forms a relatively perfect valuation system.

The reform of new energy vehicles has also promoted the reform of automobile pricing system. Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles have unique technical advantages in vehicle condition data. The market also urgently needs the industry to make reasonable and accurate evaluation of the value of new energy vehicles. However, the reform in this field is not mature. The problems mainly come from two aspects:

The first is the stage of industry development. After more than ten years of development, traditional fuel vehicles have gradually formed pricing methods, but the current new energy automobile industry is still in the early stage of development, with the number of vehicles just exceeding 10 million, and the sample size of vehicle transaction data is small, so the industry cannot follow the traditional vehicle methodology for pricing.

Second, the current industry lacks performance evaluation standards and value evaluation standards for new energy. The reason why traditional fuel vehicles have a perfect evaluation system is because they have complete evaluation standards. The problem with new energy vehicles is that we cannot evaluate the performance and value of high-value parts such as batteries reasonably. When the performance of the subject matter cannot be confirmed, the value evaluation cannot be discussed.

In a word, industry change is in full swing, derivative business is coming, and service change has not kept pace.

Who manages and who sets the prices? Some time ago, Lao Li communicated with many automobile enterprises. Everyone was mentioning that value evaluation was actually a very important part of service reform. For enterprises, what we value is economic value, that is, to tap the economic value of the whole life cycle of new energy vehicles; for the government, what we value is social value, to tap the benefits of new energy vehicles to society, such as energy strategy, safety strategy and so on.

Let's start with the value of new energy vehicles to the government. In the past few years, there have also been many safety problems in the industry, such as vehicle fire problems, geographical information leakage problems, etc. From the perspective of government management, due to the large amount of data existing in new energy vehicles, future new energy vehicles will carry out real-time control like smart phones.

In the past two years, the state has also attached great importance to the management of the use stage of new energy vehicles. Last year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the Development of Circular Economy. The main content of the plan is to study the use management of vehicles, such as studying and formulating the whole life cycle management plan for automobile use, building an automobile life cycle information interaction system covering automobile production enterprises, dealers, maintenance enterprises, recycling and dismantling enterprises, etc., and strengthening automobile production, import, sales, registration, maintenance, Second-hand car trading, scrapping, key parts flow and other information interconnection and interactive sharing.

We can simply understand that all behaviors of new energy vehicles have been "digitized," competent departments can rely on digitalization to carry out management, and enterprises can rely on digitalization to carry out value mining.

A few years ago, many car companies were talking about the concept of vehicle life cycle value management. At that time, the formulation was that new car sales did not make money, and everyone should explore the space to make money in the use stage. Interestingly, shortly after this concept was put forward, the new four modernizations of the automobile industry came. Motorization, intelligence and networking will "digitize" the automobile. Under such a technical base, it is easier for automobile enterprises to carry out the value management of the whole life cycle of vehicles and explore new business opportunities in each link.

Many friends say that car companies have carried out vehicle life cycle value management, is it bad or good for users? Lao Li thinks this is good. The essence of automobile "digitalization" is to improve social efficiency, redistribute cake, and enterprises and users take what they need from it. In the use stage, Lao Li thinks that what we feel most is mainly in the following two aspects:

The first is insurance. Since the beginning of this year, what we feel more is that the insurance of new energy vehicles is expensive. The main reason is that we cannot make reasonable valuation on new energy vehicles and cannot reasonably price them. In this case, insurance companies can only impose insurance on users.

In the past two years, Tesla has been pushing UBI auto insurance, essentially through vehicle big data to analyze the user's driving behavior, and then determine each owner's risk rate, reasonable pricing, for users with low risk rate, premium can be reduced, users with high risk rate, premium increased, this is good for users.

The second is the area of vehicle circulation. The typical characteristic is that the residual value of new energy vehicles is low. After the industry and enterprises carry out reasonable management on the performance evaluation and pricing of used vehicles, each user's vehicle has the opportunity to improve the residual value, which is also good for users.

How to go in the future industry From the current stage, the new energy automobile aftermarket field is still scattered small characteristics, the current chaos is mainly because there is no recognized pricing rules in the industry, there are many similar polar star cars in the industry.

At present, the parts enterprises, insurance companies, vehicle enterprises and users of new energy vehicles are essentially separated from each other. Everyone wants to "share a piece of the pie" in this field, and then this kind of "absurd thing" appears. In this process, the owner is actually the most damaged.

What is the endgame of the future new energy vehicle aftermarket? No one can say for sure in the short term. At present, the mainstream opinion in the industry is that the whole vehicle enterprises will play a relatively important role in the next stage. In the past, the whole vehicle enterprises could not play their hands in the use stage, because there were too many C-end users and there was no reasonable management method, so the automobile enterprises could not afford it. Lao Li just mentioned that new energy vehicles, like mobile phones, will continuously upload data to the background of automobile enterprises. Automobile enterprises with original data can price around different scenarios, which is the absolute advantage of automobile enterprises.

At present, from the perspective of data technology, manufacturers already have such capabilities. The key is how to do it next. Lao Li believes that enterprises should solve the following two problems:

First, the enterprise's value evaluation model should be recognized by the main link enterprises of the industrial chain, especially by the third-party institutions. In China's financial system, in addition to enterprise pricing, the subject matter often needs a recognized third party to price. At present, there is no relatively mature third party in the industry.

Second, enterprises should have a reasonable and perfect data sharing and opening mechanism. The pricing of new energy vehicles is based on data and experience. Data is the foundation. Vehicle enterprises have absolute advantages in the field of data, but so far, automobile enterprises have not come up with corresponding mechanisms in this field.

Although there is no mature mechanism in the industry, more and more enterprises are trying to enter this field, such as Weilai Automobile, BYD, Ningde Times and so on. For automobile enterprises, it is necessary to maximize the value of the whole vehicle, and for battery enterprises, it is necessary to maximize the value of the battery.

Since last year, BYD has launched a variety of extended warranty service products. Users can purchase extended warranty products through BYD App. Behind the extended warranty is the reasonable risk control of automobile enterprises on the performance of their own products. Weilai Automobile and Extreme Krypton Automobile are also launching relevant services around vehicle pricing, such as the residual value evaluation of used cars and Extreme Krypton App products.

Battery enterprises are also promoting the value evaluation work. At present, the consensus in the industry is that the low residual value of new energy vehicles is mainly due to the low residual value of power batteries. In the transaction process of new energy vehicles, the battery has not been evaluated. Due to the uncertainty of the performance of the subject matter, we can only base on a lower pricing. Lao Li believes that the reason why Ningde era carries out To C business such as power exchange is mainly to establish independent battery ecology through power exchange. The core element of this ecology is battery performance evaluation and pricing.

The pricing problem in the use stage of new energy vehicles will push consumers to change their perception from cost performance of new vehicles to cost performance of the whole life cycle. This process may take three years or five years, but for automobile enterprises, whoever takes the lead may gain a competitive advantage in the new stage.

This article comes from Weixin Official Accounts: autocarweekly (ID: autocarweekly), author: Lao Li in financial circles

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