Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Toyota is the first heavyweight external customer that BYD's power battery business really cooperates with.

Recently, Toyota China announced that it will launch the second pure electric model, bZ3, after bZ4, which has aroused the author's great concern.

First of all, what attracts the author's attention is the appearance of bZ3.

The bZ3 is a medium-sized sedan built on the e-TNGA platform with 4725*1835*1475mm in length, width and height and 2880mm in wheelbase. It adopts the family design of Toyota bZ series, has a conspicuous Toyota logo printed on the front, removes the intake grille on the front face, adopts a closed design and is equipped with penetrating headlights, and there are vertical ventilation openings on the left and right sides, showing a strong sense of movement. The rear of the car uses through-type taillights and is surrounded by a concave rear shape, which has a good sense of hierarchy.

It is reported that Toyota bZ3 models will be produced by FAW Toyota Tianjin plant. The Tianjin plant is one of Toyota's most advanced factories in the world. Previously, it mainly produced Toyota's flagship TNGA model, the Asian Dragon.

In addition to the ultra-high appearance, another thing that attracts the author's special attention is the close cooperation between Toyota and Chinese new energy car manufacturer BYD. In the bZ3 model, it will be equipped with drive motors and lithium iron phosphate blade battery products provided by BYD's Fudi Power. Among them, the blade battery is designed with a rear single motor and provides two kinds of motor versions: 135kW and 180kW, which reach 517km and 616km respectively under CLTC conditions, and the power consumption of 100km is 11kWh and 12kWh.

As we all know, BYD is a rapidly rising new energy automobile company in China in the past two years, and its dynasty series and marine products continue to sell well in the domestic market. However, few readers understand that BYD is also vigorously promoting the parts business to vehicle manufacturers of other brands.

Wang Chuanfu, founder of BYD, believes that BYD's deep accumulation in the upstream supply chain, such as power batteries, semiconductors and motors, makes it have great commercial potential in the parts business, so he advocates breaking up the parts business. let the motor, battery and powertrain businesses compete with their peers in the form of independent divisions.

Wang Chuanfu said on many occasions that it is not a skill for a subsidiary to earn money from BYD, and it is a skill for a subsidiary to make money from the market, which means that the product is competitive. BYD epitomizes this open strategy by providing power batteries and motors for Toyota's bZ3 models.

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On October 17, BYD issued a financial announcement of an increase in its results for the third quarter of 2022. According to the announcement, BYD expects its third-quarter net profit to be 5.5 billion yuan to 5.9 billion yuan, up 333.6% to 365.11% year-on-year, and 5.07 billion yuan to 5.77 billion yuan, up 879.37% to 1014.57% over the same period last year. The cumulative net profit of returning to the mother in the first three quarters is expected to be 9.1 billion yuan to 9.5 billion yuan, an increase of 272% to 289% over the same period last year, while the net profit of deducting non-return is expected to be 8.1 billion yuan to 8.8 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 813.8% to 892.77% over the same period last year.

Compared with history, BYD's above achievements are beautiful, but they are still overshadowed by the performance of its old rival Ningde era.

On the evening of October 21, Ningde era also released its third-quarter results for 2022. According to the financial report, the operating income of Ningde era in the third quarter was 97.369 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 232.47%. The net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 9.423 billion yuan, an increase of 188.42% over the same period last year. In the first three quarters, Ningde Times achieved revenue of 210.34 billion yuan, an increase of 186.72% over the same period last year, and net profit of 17.592 billion yuan, an increase of 126.95% over the same period last year.

Source: China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance data from the profit data, the Ningde era is more than twice that of BYD, mainly due to the ultra-high market share of the Ningde era in the power battery field. According to the data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the number of power batteries installed in Ningde era reached 92.02Gwh from January to September in 2022, accounting for 47.51%. Among them, the ternary power battery is 40.44Gwh, accounting for 52.40%, and the lithium iron phosphate power battery is 51.58Gwh, accounting for 44.34%. BYD's power battery is only loaded with 43.06Gwh, and its overall market share is 22.23%, which is less than that of 1Comp2 in Ningde era.

At present, there is a lot of discussion in the capital market about who has more investment value in the era of BYD and Ningde.

Some investors believe that BYD not only has the vehicle business, but also has the power battery business, the long-term value will be greater than the Ningde era, but from the actual performance of the capital market, investors still use real gold and silver to choose the Ningde era. As of the most recent trading day, BYD's market capitalization was 744 billion yuan, while the market capitalization of the Ningde era was close to 1 trillion yuan.

The author agrees with this judgment logic in the capital market, because Ningde era has proved its super competitiveness and profitability in the power battery, and this profitability will continue to grow with the growth of the market.

BYD, on the other hand, has only made some achievements in the field of vehicles and has not yet proved itself in the export market of power batteries. Moreover, it is well known that the whole automobile market is a Red Sea market. although BYD is growing amazingly, the encirclement and interception of many powerful competitors will soon make it encounter the ceiling of development, especially in overseas markets. It is even more difficult for BYD to catch up with Volkswagen, Toyota and other international auto giants as a whole. Even if BYD achieves the expected sales, the profit of the car business will be thinner than that of the power battery business.

If BYD wants to surpass the Ningde era, there is only one possibility that its power battery business can really get rid of its dependence on its own vehicle business, gain a larger scale of external customers, and even win the Ningde era in the external customer market. Previously, although BYD has some external cooperative customers in the external market, the overall influence of these enterprises is weak, which leads to some doubts about the feasibility of the opening strategy of YD parts business.

And this cooperation Toyota Motor, is BYD power battery business really cooperate with the first heavyweight external customers. Moreover, the bZ3, the first product of the cooperation between the two sides, has super high appearance, coupled with Toyota's consistent quality, good reputation in the eyes of users and extensive channel layout, it is likely to become a hot product in the field of new energy vehicles in China. If bZ3 succeeds, it will also drive sales of BYD's power battery business.

In addition, the cooperation with Toyota also has a very strong demonstration effect. Toyota is the most successful car company in the world today. When Toyota cast a vote of confidence in BYD's power battery, it will naturally attract more other car companies to cooperate with BYD. For example, recently there has been news in the market that BYD will provide Tesla with power batteries.

If it succeeds in winning Tesla, BYD's position as an independent battery supplier will be more stable. At that time, it is expected to catch up with Ningde era in the power battery market by virtue of the two-wheel drive of its own brand and external brand. Then BYD is also expected to catch up with Ningde era in the capital market.

But all this is based on the assumption that Zeng Yuqun, the founder of Ningde era, is a very capable entrepreneur who will be more defensive than YD in his core customers. It is reported that in order to continue to expand the supply scale, Ningde era is still investing in the construction of production bases. For example, in July, Ningde Times invested 14 billion yuan in Jining City, Shandong Province, to build a new energy battery industry base in Jining, and in August, invested 7.34 billion euros in Debrecen, Hungary, to build a new energy battery industry base in the Hungarian era. At the end of September, it invested 14 billion yuan in Luoyang City, Henan Province, to build a new energy battery production base in Luoyang.

On one side is Wang Chuanfu eyeing covetously, the other side is Zeng Yuqun to deal with cautiously. Regardless of the final outcome, the struggle between Wang Chuanfu, founder of BYD, and Zeng Yuqun, founder of Ningde era, will be one of the important points for China's power batteries and the business community as a whole in the future. It's worth paying close attention to next.

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: Guishi Business Review (ID:libusiness), author: Lu Yan, Editor: ordinary

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