Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: yuan Qi Capital (ID:yuanqicapital), author: Han Wenfeng

The expectation of the market for sodium ion battery depends to a large extent on its theoretical cost advantage.

Core content

1. The upstream lithium price is high, while the downstream is facing cost anxiety.

2. Sodium ion battery is the closest battery technology route to industrialization at present.

3. The performance of sodium ion battery is more adaptable to the standard of energy storage system.

The price of lithium carbonate has risen again.

After a high consolidation from March to August this year, the price of lithium carbonate regained its upward momentum in September. After the price of lithium carbonate broke through the 500000 / ton mark on September 8, prices continued to rise. According to the latest data released by Shanghai Iron and Steel Federation on September 29, the average spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 2500 yuan / ton to 517500 yuan / ton on the same day. The highest price in the market has exceeded 520000 yuan / ton, and this price has exceeded the average price of 517000 yuan / ton of battery-grade lithium carbonate calculated by Shanghai Steel Federation in March this year. The price of lithium carbonate has risen by more than 80% so far this year.

Lithium prices continue to rise due to the mismatch between supply and demand caused by the hot sale of new energy vehicles and the demand for large-scale energy storage power stations. The rise in the price of upstream lithium concentrate has also supported the rise in lithium carbonate prices this time. In the lithium concentrate auction held by Australian lithium miner Pilbara on September 20, the auction price was 6988 US dollars / ton, up 10% from the previous round (August 2). After taking into account exchange rate changes, the price actually increased by 14.3%, corresponding to the tax cost of lithium carbonate of about 510000 yuan per ton. In this context, in the short term, the "frenzy" of lithium carbonate prices may continue.

The rising price of lithium carbonate will undoubtedly bring greater cost pressure to downstream battery manufacturers and car companies. Judging from the medium report data of enterprises in the industrial chain, the performance of lithium mining enterprises in the middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain is extremely strong, the net interest rate of lithium mining business of leading enterprises is about 70%, and the average profit margin of middle reaches battery enterprises is only about 8%. While the average profit margin of the whole vehicle enterprise is about 5%, many automobile enterprises are struggling on the edge of loss. Take the Ningde era (300750.SZ) as an example, in the first quarter of this year, because there was no timely price increase to form a price linkage, the gross profit margin of the Ningde era plunged to 14.48%, once the lowest on record.

The rise in lithium prices will undoubtedly first stimulate the sensitive nerves of power battery companies, which will lead to a further increase in power battery production costs, thus making downstream vehicle manufacturers under pressure on profits. If the whole car factory directly regards consumers as the object of cost transfer, it will undoubtedly reduce people's willingness to spend, and then form more serious negative feedback.

For this reason, the comments that the "first year of mass production" of sodium ion batteries, which are considered by the market to have a "theoretical cost advantage", have also attracted the close attention of investors in the secondary market. On September 14, Ningde Times replied to investors that the company is committed to promoting the industrialization of sodium ion batteries in 2023. The news led to the continued popularity of A-share sodium battery concept stocks in the overall downturn of the entire new energy track in the following days.

The sharp increase in cost pressure of enterprises downstream of the lithium industry chain has led to the expectation of the market for sodium ion batteries with lower theoretical cost. However, can the highly sought-after sodium ion batteries ease the cost anxiety of downstream companies?

Why a sodium battery? In terms of the development history of sodium-ion battery and lithium-ion battery, sodium battery is not the first time to be used as battery material. Because Na and Li belong to alkali metal group elements, the research of sodium ion battery and lithium ion battery basically started at the same time.

In the late 1970s, researchers carried out research on sodium-ion battery and lithium-ion battery, but the excellent performance of lithium-ion battery caused scientists to give up the research on sodium-ion battery. Lithium-ion battery has also made great progress in the past 50 years. Especially in 1990, Sony realized the commercialization of lithium-ion battery technology, which led to the rapid development of lithium-ion battery technology, but the research on sodium-ion battery was relatively stagnant in the same period. It was not until 2010 that there was a turning point in the research of sodium ion battery. subsequently, sodium ion batteries have made continuous breakthroughs in electrode materials, electrolyte materials, characterization analysis, sodium storage mechanism exploration and cell technology.

In fact, as a branch of the diversified development of power battery, sodium-ion battery is very close to the theoretical basis and structure of lithium-ion battery. The structure of liquid sodium ion battery also includes positive electrode, negative electrode, current collector, electrolyte and diaphragm.

Due to the difference between the characteristics of sodium ion and lithium ion, the positive and negative materials of sodium ion need to choose the material suitable for sodium ion migration, which is also the core of sodium ion battery technology. According to Guotai Junan research report, copper, iron and other elements that cannot be used as cathode materials in lithium-ion batteries perform well in sodium-ion batteries.

At present, the cathode materials of sodium ion batteries are mainly divided into five types: oxides, polyanions, Prussian blue, fluoride and organic compounds, among which the first three types have the highest maturity and have entered the initial stage of industrialization.

In the selection of anode materials for sodium ion batteries, because the radius of sodium ions is much larger than that of lithium ions, the sodium storage performance of graphite materials widely used in lithium batteries is poor, however, some amorphous carbon anodes have become the most promising anode materials for sodium ion batteries because of their relatively low sodium storage potential, high sodium storage capacity and good cycle stability. At present, the anode materials of sodium ion battery are mainly divided into four types: carbon anode materials, transformed anode materials, titanate anode materials and alloy anode materials. Among them, carbon-based materials have the highest technological maturity and rich resources, and are expected to take the lead in industrialization.

In the production of batteries, similar to lithium-ion batteries, the production of sodium-ion batteries also goes through the processes of pulping, coating, assembly, liquid injection, formation and so on. Among them, the assembly link is mainly to combine the finished positive and negative electrodes together through the diaphragm interlayer to establish the sodium ion path inside the battery and isolate the positive and negative electrodes to prevent internal short circuit. The assembly process follows the lithium-ion battery technology, which is divided into winding and lamination technology, and the former is divided into cylindrical winding and square winding. In addition, the structural design and packaging process of sodium-ion battery products also basically follow the lithium-ion battery, and the appearance is roughly divided into three categories: cylindrical, soft package and square hard shell. In addition, the electrolyte and diaphragm of sodium ion battery basically follow the lithium ion battery system.

In other words, in fact, the production of sodium-ion batteries can directly use the existing lithium-ion battery production line, without the need to rebuild a new production line. To some extent, the sodium ion battery is the closest to the batch battery route at the current stage.

In addition, from the cost side, in theory, sodium ion batteries have significant cost advantages in terms of materials. For example, the cathode materials with the largest cost share, because the price of sodium carbonate is much lower than that of lithium carbonate, and sodium ion battery cathode materials usually use bulk metal materials such as copper and iron, so the cost of cathode materials is lower than that of lithium batteries. According to Ping an Securities, the cathode material cost of sodium battery using NaCuFeMnO / soft carbon system is only 40% of that of lithium iron phosphate / graphite system, and the total material cost of battery is 30% less than the latter.

At the same time, the sodium ion battery collector (the collector is the substrate component attached to the positive and negative active material, accounting for about 10-13% of the battery weight, which is used to collect the current generated by the electrode material and release the conduction) can use aluminum foil for both positive and negative electrodes. The negative electrode of lithium-ion battery needs copper foil (because sodium ion does not react with aluminum ion in the negative electrode), which also reduces the cost of sodium-ion battery collector.

According to the data of Hu Yongsheng "Energy Storage Technology and Economic Analysis of Sodium Ion Battery" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the kilowatt-hour cost of sodium battery is about 0.3 yuan, which is 52.2%, 32.4% and 54.3% lower than lead battery, lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary lithium battery respectively. From the perspective of cost, if the price of upstream materials of lithium battery is difficult to fall in a short time, the rapid landing of sodium ion battery may also be able to solve the cost anxiety of battery manufacturers to some extent.

In addition, from the perspective of resource distribution, the amount of sodium resources on the earth is more than 400 times that of lithium, and sodium resources are more evenly distributed around the world, while more than 80% of lithium resources are concentrated in the Americas and Australia. Therefore, the price of sodium resources is much lower than that of lithium resources, which is only 1.33% of the price of lithium resources, which means that sodium resources are easier to market. China International Capital Corporation pointed out that "the development of sodium-ion batteries will not only help alleviate the dilemma that China's lithium resources rely on imports for 80%, maintain the security of the supply chain, but also delay the price increase brought about by the rise in raw materials for lithium-ion batteries." to reduce cost pressure.

Each index has its own advantages, which is complementary rather than replacing the return battery itself. battery safety and energy density have always been the core indicators to reflect the overall performance of the battery, and it is also the competitiveness of various battery manufacturers. Sodium ion battery is no exception. In terms of energy density, the energy density of sodium ion battery is 100-160Wh/kg. Compared with lithium-ion battery, sodium-ion battery still has a large gap in energy density. At present, the energy density of lithium ferric phosphate battery is 120-200Wh/kg, and the energy density of ternary lithium battery can reach 200-350Wh/kg. Moreover, in terms of cycle life, the cycle life of sodium battery can reach about 1000-3000 times, while that of lithium-ion battery is more than 3000 times.

In terms of battery safety, because the internal resistance of sodium ion battery is higher than that of lithium battery, its instantaneous calorific value is less in the case of short circuit, the temperature rise is lower, and the thermal runaway temperature is higher than lithium battery, so it has higher safety. On the other hand, lithium battery will precipitate lithium when charged at low temperature, but sodium battery will not precipitate, so sodium ion battery has a wider operating temperature range. The sodium ion battery can work normally in the temperature range of-40 ℃ to 80 ℃, and the capacity retention is close to 90% in the environment of-20 ℃. Its high and low temperature performance is better than that of lithium ion battery.

In addition, in terms of fast charging capacity, the charging time of 80% of sodium ion batteries is about 15 minutes. Among the current mass-produced mainstream batteries, ternary lithium batteries are blessed by DC fast charging. It usually takes 30 minutes to charge from 20% to 80%, while lithium iron phosphate takes about 45 minutes.

Obviously, for new energy vehicles and other fields that require high energy density and mileage, the defect of low energy density is that sodium ion battery has become the main deficiency of power battery. The limitation of energy density also determines that it is difficult to form a strictly subversive substitution between sodium-ion battery and lithium-ion battery. However, sodium ion battery technology may be a good supplement to lithium battery technology in areas where the demand for energy density is relatively low, such as communication base stations, low-speed electric vehicles, electric bicycles, electric energy storage, solar street lamps and so on.

Especially in the field of energy storage, the performance of sodium ion battery is more adaptable to the standard of energy storage system.

In general, large-scale energy storage systems do not require high energy density of batteries for energy storage, and have higher requirements for safety and economy. therefore, energy storage systems may become an important scenario for the landing application of sodium batteries. And the cost advantage of sodium ion battery makes it more economical in energy storage application scene. In addition, due to the wide temperature range of sodium ion battery, the energy storage system based on sodium ion battery can adapt to the climatic conditions of different latitudes and effectively improve the permeability of distributed power generation. improve the stability and economy of distribution network operation.

As far as the energy storage market is concerned, policy support for the outbreak of superimposed demand is rapidly driving downstream demand for energy storage batteries. According to GGII data, the new installed capacity of new energy storage 12.7GW in the first half of 2022 is 3.7 times that of the whole year of 2021 (3.4GW). The overall size of 44.5GWh energy storage battery shipments has exceeded the level of 2021, while lithium-ion batteries account for more than 90 per cent of the new energy storage market.

However, for battery manufacturers, the high cost of lithium-ion batteries also has a serious negative impact on their energy storage business. Take Ningde era as an example. In the first half of 2021, the gross profit margin of Ningde energy storage business was 36.6%. By 2022, the gross profit margin of the company's energy storage business sector plummeted to 6.43%, down nearly 30 percentage points from the same period last year. If the economic sodium-ion battery is used to realize the alternative application of lithium-ion battery in the field of energy storage, its gross profit may be well marginal repaired. Citic Securities Research News predicts that the potential total demand for sodium batteries in energy storage, electric two-wheelers and low-speed electric vehicles will reach 190GWh by 2025.

Many parties compete for layout, but the cost advantage remains to be realized. according to incomplete statistics, more than 60 lithium industry chain enterprises have laid out sodium ion battery positive and negative electrode materials, electrolytes and other fields, continuously promoting the acceleration of sodium ion battery industrialization.

In July last year, Ningde Times released its first-generation sodium ion battery, according to its press conference, in the key performance indicators of the battery, the single energy density of the battery cell reached 160 Whshock kg; charging at room temperature for 15 minutes, the charge can reach more than 80%; in the low temperature environment of-20 ℃, it also has more than 90% discharge retention rate; the system integration efficiency can reach more than 80%. At the same time, Ningde Times said that the energy density of the second-generation sodium ion battery cell will break through 200Wh/kg.

According to the statistics of the announcement, in addition to Ningde era's plan to realize the industrialization of sodium ion in 2023, Chuanyi Technology also said that it will soon be put into production, and it is expected that the first phase of 2GWh's sodium ion battery project will be put into construction in 2023; Huayang and China Kehina plan to set up a battery PACK plant and expand production to the production line of 10GWh sodium ion battery positive and negative materials in 2023; Rongbai Technology plans to ship sodium battery cathode materials per month in 2023. Zhenhua new material for sodium ion battery cathode material is expected to enter a small batch trial stage in the fourth quarter of 2022; polyfluorinated sodium hexafluorophosphate has been commercialized and mass production of sodium battery is still in the laboratory stage.

It should be noted, however, that the expectation of the market for sodium ion batteries depends to a large extent on its theoretical cost advantage. However, on the whole, due to the lack of matching in the industrial chain and the lack of scale effect, the actual production cost of sodium ion battery is more than 1 yuan / wh, which is much higher than that of lithium ion battery. In addition, the performance, cost control and adaptive application scenario of sodium ion battery need to be further tested, which is still a long way from the popularization of industrial application. Moreover, the impact of the high price of lithium carbonate has magnified the market perception of the advantages of sodium ion batteries. If the lithium price falls back in the future, the promotion of sodium batteries may still need to draw a question mark.

Reference:

1. Energy Storage Science and Technology-Energy Storage Technology and Economic Analysis of Sodium Ion batteries, June 2022

2. Guotai Junan-spitting out "sodium" new, separate anti-"lithium", July 2022

3. Ping an Securities-the giant waved the flag and shouted that the technical route was facing differentiation, August 2022.

This article is originally written by Yuanqi Capital. The views in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment suggestions.

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