Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

This year, the AR track is bustling: Luo Yonghao announced his entry into the AR track in March this year; AR's "four Little Dragons" (Nreal, Thunderbird Innovation, Rokid, Movie) have launched consumer-grade products for C-end; Nreal, which has been dormant overseas for several years, returned to the home market with high profile; and the industry is hot for investment and financing innovation. Once again, how far is the current AR from the dream of the "next generation mobile terminal"?

The AR (Augmented Reality, augmented reality) industry, which has experienced ups and downs, has reached a new turning point.

Different from VR (Virtual Reality, virtual reality), which is immersed in virtual environment, AR is more closely integrated with reality, which lies between VR and MR (Mixed Reality). In the ideal design, it is light and wearable and technically possible.

However, due to the immaturity of technology, market and ecology, the past AR equipment is mainly in the B-end market, and the investment in the C-end AR market is relatively limited.

However, over the past year or so, under the meta-universe trend, AR is regarded as one of the important entrances to the meta-universe, and AR has returned to public view. The consumer AR market is on the rise again.

"AR glasses will replace mobile phones as the entrance to the next generation of mobile terminals, main computing platforms, and even meta-universe." There's a lot of similar talk.

Over the past year, domestic AR glasses manufacturers in the embrace of C-end this matter, appears to be extremely active, and related heat constantly.

This year, the track is even more lively: Luo Yonghao announced his entry into the AR track in March this year; AR's "four Little Dragons" (Nreal, Thunderbird Innovation, Rokid, Movie) have launched consumer-grade products for C-end; Nreal, which has been dormant overseas for several years, returned to the local market with a high profile; and the industry is hot for investment and financing innovation.

"at present, enterprises in the AR industry have more and more actions and products, and on the whole, it is a big industry cycle." Li Hongwei, CEO of Thunderbird Innovation, said that around 2016, the AR industry experienced the first Garnter curve, although people agree that the future, but in fact the technology and products are not ready. For now, the relevant technology is ready.

Once again, how far is the current AR from the dream of the "next generation mobile terminal"?

1. The consumer side is windy on October 13, the anniversary celebration of AR enterprise Thunderbird innovation in TCL Science Park in Nanshan, Shenzhen. At the same time, the company is preparing for the upcoming launch, which will be Thunderbird's second product launch this year.

Thunderbird Innovation was born in TCL, and the team started the research and development of XR (Extended Reality) products many years ago. Back in 2016, TCL jointly sold Alcatel phones with VR helmets. In 2018, the team began to extend horizontally, subtract in the product form, add in the technical algorithm, and gradually go deep into the AR track.

A year ago, Thunderbird Innovation was officially established, and two days after its establishment, Thunderbird officially announced the vanguard version of its long-planned binocular full-color Micro LED optical waveguide AR glasses-Thunderbird smart glasses.

In April this year, Thunderbird innovative consumer-grade AR glasses Thunderbird Air officially went on sale, the first listing on the list of JD.com 's best-selling goods, new products trading list first. Thunderbird Innovation did not disclose specific sales of the product, but according to its statistics, the product won a number of first places in the AR glasses category on JD.com 's peak day. So far, Thunderbird Air ranks second in the industry in e-commerce sales.

Source of Thunderbird Air: the latest statistics from Thunderbird Innovation Market Analysis Analysys show that in the third quarter of 2022, the top three domestic consumer AR glasses online platforms were Nreal, Thunderbird Innovation and Rokid. Among them, Nreal took the first place with 34.5% market share, and Thunderbird Innovation ranked second with 28.6% market share.

Thunderbird Innovation, which was founded one year ago, is a microcosm of the AR industry. In the past two years, with the explosion of the concept of meta-universe, AR has once again become the tuyere of technology companies. In 2022, the wind blew from the B side to the C side.

The most important force that stirs up this wind is AR, which is already in it.

In the first half of this year, AR focused on releasing new products to make the consumer-grade AR glasses market much more lively. In September alone, three new AR products were unveiled, including Lenovo AR glasses Yoga Glasses (Lenovo Glasses T1), Dream Glass's new AR glasses Dream Glass Flow, and bright vision AR subtitles glasses "listener".

According to incomplete statistics, more than 10 models of AR glasses were released or listed in the first half of this year. These products are generally divided into two categories, one is the main viewing scene products of Birdbath solutions, and the other is mainly information prompts, which are mainly optical waveguide schemes, including arrayed optical waveguides and diffracted optical waveguides.

The second force comes from capital. According to Huaying Capital statistics, global and domestic investment in AR reached an all-time high of US $37.4 billion and US $18.1 billion respectively in 2021.

Since the second half of last year, domestic AR companies Liangfeng, Nreal, Rokid and movies have received financing one after another.

In March this year, Rokid announced that it had received a total of 700 million yuan in round C financing, mainly for technology research and development, marketing and ecological construction. Ten days later, Nreal announced the completion of a $6000 C + round of financing to increase R & D spending, broaden diversified application scenarios, and accelerate market expansion. In less than half a year, Nreal received strategic investment from IICOMBINED, the parent company of the international fashion glasses brand GENTLE MONSTER, with a financing amount of US $1500.

AR optics-related companies, such as Schneider, Huiniu, Little Light, Shanhe Optoelectronics, also received financing in the first half of the year.

According to Li Hongwei, Thunderbird Innovation is also in contact with management.

2. Three types of players compete for hegemony as the "predecessor" of AR glasses, Google has tasted fresh and stepped on the hole for the newcomers.

A decade ago, Google released monocular AR glasses Google Glass, which, like the scenes described in sci-fi movies, gives the wearer access to real-time information, as well as services such as picture uploads, video calls and weather inquiries.

Although this product is favored by university laboratories and film and television companies, it has failed to arouse the interest of ordinary consumers. In the evaluation of consumers, the AR glasses have high price, short battery life and imperfect application.

Because of this, Google Glass failed to help Google open the consumer AR market. In January 2015, Google Glass stopped selling. At the same time, Google shut down the project.

In an earnings call shortly after, the then chief financial officer of Google, Patrick Pickett, was not optimistic about the future of Google Glass and admitted that Google Glass would not launch a consumer version for the time being. However, Google also said that AR technology is very important, Google will continue to develop.

It is worth mentioning that earlier this year, it was reported that Google was developing a new AR helmet, codenamed "Project Iris", which is expected to be available as soon as 2024.

In 2018, star AR company Magic Leap launched a consumer-oriented AR glasses Magic Leap One, priced at $2295. Due to the high price, the finished product was not satisfactory, which attracted a lot of complaints as soon as it was launched.

C-side exploration has been repeatedly defeated, while AR enterprises explored in B-side have handed in a good result. The most representative is Microsoft. In 2015, Microsoft launched the AR helmet HoloLens. In 2017, HoloLens entered the Chinese market. Two years later, Microsoft launched HoloLens 2, a second-generation AR device.

According to the report of Weishen WellsennXR, the global AR leader shipped 86000 units in the second quarter of this year, and AR's current shipments are still mainly in the B-end market, especially in overseas markets.

However, the meagre profit of the B-end business is also not conducive to market education. In the past two years, more and more enterprises have devoted themselves to the research and development of consumer-grade AR devices, and a new pattern of the industry has been formed.

At present, there are generally three types of players in the AR market: foreign technology companies represented by Microsoft, domestic smartphone manufacturers represented by OPPO and Xiaomi, and domestic emerging AR enterprises represented by Nreal, Thunderbird Innovation and Rokid.

OPPO Air Glass source: OPPO official website so far, foreign technology companies have contributed the largest shipments to the B end of the AR market, far leading in the B end market share. Domestic smartphone manufacturers are mostly exploratory, occupying the least market share in the three categories of players. Among the emerging domestic AR companies, Nreal, Thunderbird Innovation and Rokid are mainly oriented to the C side.

In the domestic AR market, Nreal, Thunderbird Innovation and Rokid occupy more than 80% of the market share.

From the perspective of product positioning, AR players include three directions: focus on watching movies, entertainment, and play the extension function of mobile phones; main information prompts, such as navigation, translation, teleprompter, etc., as auxiliary tools; select specific scenes and consumer groups, such as real estate sales scenarios.

In Li Hongwei's view, no matter what type of players they are, the most critical factors in the competition include technology, scenarios, and the basic logic of business competition.

"when the technology matures, Chinese companies may play a bigger role. Because China has a large number of users, it may run faster in terms of scene maturity." Li Hongwei said.

3. How far is it from the outbreak? An ideal AR glasses requires not only mature algorithms, interactive solutions, excellent display effects, but also elements suitable for consumers to wear, such as fashionable appearance. From this factor, AR glasses are still in the exploratory stage.

"We predict that the consumer grade AR will go through three stages: the early market (2022-2025), also known as the preparation period, in which the essence and core competence is the hardware equipment and the replacement of some mobile phone scenarios; in the mainstream market (2025-2028), the performance of the hardware meets the requirements of Killer App, and revolutionary products appear and enter the masses of users. The stage of ecological outbreak (after 2028), which forms the barrier that constitutes the positive cycle of ecology. " Li Hongwei said.

At present, although the market has seen a "warm current", the overall shipment of AR glasses is still small, and there is not a circle of consumer-grade AR products in the world.

Judging from past experience, hardware terminal products will have a minimum experience threshold. Exceeding this threshold means that the technical bottleneck of the industry has been broken through and can be accepted by more people. It also shows that the industry is about to usher in a period of rapid growth. More and more manufacturers begin to make profits, and the industry achieves a positive cycle.

In the view of many people in the industry, the threshold of VR is 10 million sets of shipments. Li Hongwei believes that the threshold of AR is the same number. "tens of millions of units are reasonable criteria for outbreak evaluation, and the high probability is of this order of magnitude."

How long will it take to reach 10 million? Li Hongwei's answer is 2025.

Guo Mingyi, an analyst at Tianfeng International Securities, made the same prediction. Three months ago, he predicted that Apple's first generation would be on the shelves before the WWDC in 2023, and the second-generation Apple AR / MR was expected to go on sale in 2025. Thanks to Apple's second-generation AR / MR product segmentation strategy and ecosystem, Apple AR / MR shipments could reach 10 million units as soon as 2025 or 2026.

According to media reports, Apple's AR / MR headshow project was officially launched as early as 2015. Although there is no sign of the product for a long time, the relevant news comes out one after another.

For years, Apple CEO Cook has never been stingy in his praise of AR technology. He believes that AR can not only strengthen the connection with people, but also have greater application potential than VR. "AR has a profound impact on people's lives, and it is impossible to live without AR in the future."

There are also different views. IDC, a third-party market agency, wrote in a report that the AR market may shrink this year after two years of growth. Shipments of AR head display devices have been declining in recent quarters due to the precarious financial situation of some head companies, the lack of new devices and the short-term satisfaction of consumer demand by AR on mobile phones. By the end of 2022, shipments in the global AR headline market will fall 8.7% year-on-year to about 260000 units.

Although the AR head display market shrank in 2022, IDC expects the compound annual growth rate of 70.3% in the next 5 years. In the future, the AR head display market will continue to grow. By the end of 2026, AR head display device shipments will reach 4.1 million units.

Jitesh Ubrani, IDC mobile and consumer device tracking research manager, expects AR headsets to become mainstream at the end of 2024 or early 2025 at the earliest.

"specific plans can fall on the product, technical route, scene, the outbreak of the AR industry also needs an out-of-circle product, this product is not necessarily produced by Apple, but Apple will certainly play a very big role." Li Hongwei said that people still have to use Apple to "stir up" the whole market.

This article is from the official account of Wechat: all-weather Technology (ID:iawtmt), author: Yu Huiru, Editor: Luo Lijuan

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