Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

CTOnews.com, Oct. 23-Apple is slightly ahead of Wall Street expectations in the September quarter, including the iPhone 14 / Pro series release, so analysts' attention has begun to shift to the key holiday quarter.

In a note to investors, Cowen, an investment bank, predicted that Apple's September fiscal quarter would slightly exceed Wall Street expectations, but would be in line with holiday quarter guidance.

Cowen said Apple's high-end iPhone was the main factor driving its revenue growth. However, demand for iPhone 14 Plus was lower than analysts had expected, which was considered one of the risk factors.

CTOnews.com learned that a report on October 18 said Apple had cut production of the iPhone 14 Plus. According to DigiTimes, several supply chain manufacturers and channels have confirmed that they have received a notice from Apple to cut production of the iPhone 14 Plus by about 40%. Apple is shifting production from non-Pro models to more iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max devices, which have seen a big increase in component shipments. Total shipments of the iPhone 14 Plus are likely to fall to about 10 million units in 2022.

Cowen forecasts that Apple will ship 5100 iPhone units in the third quarter, which is in line with the forecasts of other industry analysts. Shipments in the fourth quarter are likely to be around 80 million.

Analysts slightly lowered their forecasts for iPhone shipments in the December 2022 fiscal quarter and March 2023 fiscal quarter to 8200 million and 55 million, respectively. The previous forecast was 8300 million and 58 million.

Sales of Apple's iPad and Mac are expected to show double-digit year-on-year growth, and the growing adoption of iPad by companies may help offset the decline in consumer demand. Mac sales in the natural year 2022 are likely to grow by + 5 per cent year-on-year.

Apple's services business, including Apple Care and iCloud, is expected to grow by + 9% year-on-year in the third quarter. Cowen expects an improvement in the fourth quarter, forecasting year-on-year growth of + 11%, driven by increased App Store spending during the holiday season.

Cowen maintains its target price of $200 for Apple stock, based on 22 times earnings for Apple's hardware business and 39 times recurring revenue from its services business. The bank estimates Apple's earnings per share for the natural year 2023 at a mixed multiple of $6.65.

So far, apple's AAPL stock has outperformed the Nasdaq by 12 per cent this year and the s & p by 3 per cent.

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