Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

"do you still want to consider mixing models? In the field of new energy vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles have always been regarded as' special 'transitional products. While enjoying the same new energy license index as pure electric vehicles, there is no anxiety about the battery life of pure electric vehicles. Therefore, it is favored by many owners who are "thirsty for a license".

Recently, however, users in Shanghai are starting to get anxious. The latest measures of Shanghai to encourage the purchase and use of new energy vehicles pointed out that consumers will no longer issue special licenses for buying or transferring plug-in hybrid vehicles (including additional programs) from January 1, 2023.

In other words, two months later, Shanghai car owners will not be able to get a Shanghai green card for free.

How will the domestic new energy vehicle market react if Shanghai "politely refuses" to mix cars as a transitional product? At the same time, for the new energy engine factory, what impact will this market change have on the promotion of related models?

"01" car companies are worried about more cities "following the trend"? "Shanghai is one of the largest interruption markets, how can the new policy not affect the sales of car companies?"

Talking about the new policy of "politely refusing" interruption in Shanghai, Yu Yan (a pseudonym), who is engaged in market research in a domestic new energy car company, said helplessly.

At present, nearly 30% of the mixed models in his company are sold to the Shanghai market every month.

Once Shanghai buys the mix and no longer gives a green card, the purchase cost of the plug-in car will even be higher than that of fuel-fired cars and pure electric vehicles. After all, the auction price of a Shanghai license is usually around 100000 yuan. Since we all have to bid for targets, fuel cars with cheaper prices are obviously more cost-effective.

If most of the car scenes are in the urban area, some users will even ignore the driving anxiety and buy pure electric vehicles that still give indicators and green cards for free. This means that the incremental market for mixed cars in Shanghai will also cease to exist.

In his view, the impact of the new rules on the sales of some new energy car companies will be unprecedented.

Data show that at present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Shanghai is as high as 50%, which is on a par with fuel vehicles. As for the mixed models, the performance is even brighter in the Shanghai new energy vehicle market: in the first eight months of this year, the insured number of Shanghai new energy vehicles was 143400, of which 45000 were mixed vehicles, accounting for more than 30%.

Although this proportion is still not as high as in 2018, the first year when Shanghai officially announced the "gift" license for new energy vehicles, including plug-in, in the new energy vehicle market where pure electric technology is popular, we can still see the high contribution of Shanghai to the national sales of new energy vehicles.

In the statistics of Ciyun.com, we can see that in August this year alone, the national sales of mixed models reached 110000, and Shanghai reached 12000, accounting for more than 10%.

However, the imminent loss of Shanghai's market advantage of mixed cars is not the biggest concern for new energy car companies.

"what the company is most worried about is that after Beijing and Shanghai, there will be first-tier or even new first-tier cities to follow up and cancel the green card target of interrupting. In this way, mixed models may really be eliminated by the auto market." In Yu Yan's eyes, as the largest consumer market of new energy vehicles in China, Shanghai can be called a policy weather vane.

You know, in addition to Shanghai, other first-tier cities and new first-tier cities in China are also the main market for mixed model consumption. According to an analysis by Zhu Yulong, a senior automotive engineer, almost all of the top 10 cities with mixed models accounting for the highest sales of new energy vehicles in the first eight months of this year were first-tier and new first-tier cities.

Like pure electric cars, in second -, third-and fourth-tier cities with no limited number, mixed models that not only take into account the advantages of fuel vehicle life, but also enjoy free target benefits are actually not popular.

Therefore, in the future, once there are more front-line, new front-line fast "follow the trend" Shanghai index new policy, it is tantamount to a blow to the mixed model.

The key is that in the past year, there are many independent new energy car companies, are constantly increasing the size of the research and development of mixed models and investment. For the new energy technology route, urban policy changes, these new energy car companies are not prepared and predicted?

Some netizens also asked why the policy of "abandoning" interruption in Shanghai fell so suddenly that only two and a half months were reserved for relevant car companies to sprint into the sales of mixed models. Will the pace of new mixed-in models slow down when they encounter this change?

In fact, as early as March 2021 in Shanghai issued the "accelerate the development of new energy vehicle industry implementation plan", 2023 purchase mixed "no card" adjustment, has been impressively listed.

However, at that time, the main technical route of the domestic new energy vehicle market was still pure electric vehicles, and ordinary consumers did not pay attention to the relevant adjustment, which naturally failed to set off too much waves in the field of new energy vehicle consumption.

Confusingly, consumers can be forgiven for not paying attention to changes in urban policy. But the relevant car companies should have seen this trend a long time ago. However, in the past year, a large number of mixed products have been introduced, and new models are also in the process of research and development. what is the reason behind this?

Is it possible that car companies have already invested a lot of R & D resources, and there is nothing they can do even if they see signs of a change in policy, and the relevant products can only be listed at risk?

Putting aside the contradiction of "chicken first or egg first", in 2022, the phenomenon of car companies inserting mixed models "making dumplings" is really advancing with the market demand.

In the first half of 2022, domestic plug-in hybrid vehicle sales reached 502000, an increase of 194.3% over the same period last year, far exceeding the 107.8% growth of the pure electric vehicle market, according to the Federation of passengers. Therefore, 2022 is also known as the "first year" by the industry.

The reason behind the surge in sales is that Ma Lin (a pseudonym), a new energy vehicle industry analyst who used to be in charge of user operations in a well-known car company and now works for a research institute, said that this is closely related to the driving anxiety caused by the short range and difficult charging of pure electric vehicles.

Perhaps seeing that since the second half of last year, BYD's mixed sales have been "neck and neck" with pure electricity, as well as the sales of ideal cars have been rising, and other domestic car companies have also had an epiphany of the consumer demand for mixed models, so they have laid out one after another. seize the time to get a piece of the pie.

"although mixed models are regarded as backward products, users have demand, and new energy car companies naturally have to move according to the situation." Ma Lin recalls that since the beginning of this year, in addition to BYD, which has always adhered to the ideal of "two-legged" walking, nearly ten independent new energy car companies have launched plug-in products one after another.

Even though it is clear that there is still a year or even less than a year left, Shanghai will "politely refuse" interruption, and even other frontlines and new frontlines may follow up, but some car companies still take a chance, even betting on the post-epidemic era. There is a possibility that the implementation of the relevant policies will be delayed.

After all, the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have jointly issued an announcement to extend the vehicle purchase tax exemption policy for new energy vehicles due at the end of this year until the end of next year. The policy of exemption from purchase tax has been extended three times so far.

"now that the policy in Shanghai is clear, New Year's Day will be on the ground in 2023, but the car companies will be able to rush the number of cars in the last two and a half months." Ma Lin analysis, from now to the end of the year, Shanghai plug-in model sales will certainly be blowout, and promote the overall growth of new energy vehicle sales.

According to the industry information he has learned, some car companies have adjusted the production capacity of mixed models to cope with the possible increase in demand in the Shanghai market. "the goal is to ensure that consumers can successfully get the last batch of free plug-in license indicators before New Year's Day next year."

In his view, the green cards in Beijing and Shanghai have "refused" to plug in mixed models, which will inevitably create a panic of "buying a car as soon as possible" in other first-tier and new first-tier cities, and it will also drive up the sales of new energy mixed models over a long period of time.

Does "03" charging anxiety push up mixed sales? Perhaps the key to determining whether interruption is an "outdated product" is not a change in policy.

An automobile R & D engineer said that independent traditional car companies have both traditional fuel car manufacturing experience and pure electric vehicle manufacturing experience, and the threshold for R & D mixed models is lower. In other words, most of the plug-in models are based on the basic design of fuel vehicles, and the research and development cost of the plug-in system is not high and the cycle is short.

As for the addition program, which is recognized by the industry as having a lower "technical content", it has even become the best choice for the new power "zero foundation" to enter the mixed field. Once the new consumer demand is grasped, even the "outdated products" can achieve the effect of "1: 1 > 2", which is worth the mainframe factory to make a bet.

It can be seen that plug-in models were popular for a while as early as 2016-2018. At that time, the battery life of pure electric vehicles was generally low, and the license index could be obtained free of charge in limited cities. Before the birth of the green card, plug-in as a new energy vehicle "transition" product, or even directly on the blue card.

Since then, with the gradual increase in charging infrastructure and the remarkable improvement in the range of pure electric vehicles, coupled with the low cost of using cars, many users have considered "one step in place"-giving up the choice of mixed models and buying pure electric vehicles with the same "buy a car and get a license plate".

As for the general trend of the industry, Yu Yan also pointed out that because of the analysis of the national energy structure of "more coal and less oil" and the understanding of the follow-up "double carbon" policy, many car companies began to take pure electricity as the mainstream technology route of new energy vehicles at that time. Car companies that have not yet set foot in the new energy field, but also "one step in place" specializing in pure electric vehicles.

Coupled with the car purchase subsidy of pure electric vehicles, the sales of mixed models were depressed for a time. In 2019 and 2020, the annual sales of domestic mixed models are only more than 200,000, with an average of about 16000 per month, and the market scale tends to stagnate.

So why did the mixed models, whose market size has been stagnant for two years, blow out again at the end of 2021 and 2022?

The answer may be here: during the National Day holiday this year, an online discussion on whether or not to mix up charging resources in the service area uncovered the largest "fig leaf" of pure electric models.

"if you want to drive a pure electric car better, you can either continue to increase the mileage or make it easier and faster to recharge." Yu Yan pointed out that although sales of new energy, especially pure electric vehicles, have soared, the charging infrastructure has failed to keep up, seriously hampering the user experience.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.6 million in the first half of this year, an increase of 1.2 times compared with the same period last year. Data from the China charging Alliance show that as of June this year, 1.528 million public charging piles had been built nationwide, an increase of 65.5 percent over the same period last year, with an increase of 381000 units.

However, the speed of the construction of public charging infrastructure has not caught up with the pace of the development of new energy vehicles.

The most intuitive manifestation is that every May Day, National Day holiday and Spring Festival holiday, it is difficult to find a charging pile in the service area of the highway, and many pure electric car owners can only queue for a long time, and the time to replenish their cars far exceeds the driving time.

"as a result, many users have switched to plug-in models in order to avoid the pain of waiting for travel recharges." Yu Yan said with a smile that the original "fuel and electricity" plug-in cars should have the right to recharge, but it is speechless to be criticized for "competing with electric vehicles" because "fuel" is regarded as occupying and wasting charging pile resources.

In his view, pure electric vehicles, which suffer from long-range anxiety, deserve sympathy, but users should actively call for more investment in facilities such as charging and changing electricity, rather than blaming the owners for taking up charging resources.

[conclusion] according to the latest data released by the Federation of passengers, the retail sales of mixed models in China reached 154000 in September this year, an increase of 170.7% over the same period last year and 16.1% month-on-month. It can be seen that the desire of domestic consumers to buy mixed models is still strong.

Although plug-in models are recognized as "transitional products" or even "outdated products" in the era of new energy vehicles, the battery life technology of pure electric vehicles does not improve, and the charging infrastructure can not keep up with it. Plug-in technology is still difficult to be abandoned by the consumer market in a certain period of time.

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: know Notes (ID:dongdong_note), write | Divine Music Editor | Qin Yan

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