Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

CTOnews.com, October 18, according to the latest investigation of TrendForce Jibang Consulting, the tight material situation after the epidemic has improved in the second half of this year, and the delivery time of short materials has significantly recovered. However, under the condition that the material supply is secure and the demand can be met, the annual growth rate of server shipments in 2023 is expected to be only 3.7%, down from 5.1% in 2022.

TrendForce Group Consulting said that the slowdown in growth is affected by three major factors. First, after the long-term and short-term problems are alleviated, buyers are also adjusting past excess orders, so ODM orders have also decreased, but it will not affect server shipments in 2022 for the time being. Second, the impact of high inflation and a weaker economy, corporate capital expenditure may be more conservative, IT-related investment will be more flexible, such as replacing some local servers with cloud services. Third, the changes in the international situation make the demand for small-scale data centers continue to emerge, and the construction of super-large-scale data centers in the past will slow down.

From the point of view of the server DRAM capacity carried on the whole machine, as the buyer will introduce the new CPU intel Sapphire Rapids and AMD Genoa in 2023, and the price of DDR5 DRAM is 3040% higher than that of DDR4, the cost of spare parts for CPU, Memory and related new models is greatly increased. As the demand for server terminals will be more focused on hardware costs, the average capacity of DRAM carried by the whole machine is also limited, so it is expected that the average annual capacity of server DRAM will increase by only 7% in 2023, falling below 10% for the first time since 2016.

If the price of server DRAM continues to be revised sharply, the average carrying capacity is still expected to pick up in 2023.

CTOnews.com learned that it was reported that the average server DRAM capacity could still rise to 12% in 2023, as in terms of server DRAM prices in 2022, the price received by Tier 1 customers in the third quarter had fallen below an all-time low and continued to decline in 2023. If the original factory is also willing to release a greater price discount for high-capacity 64GB modules, there is an opportunity to stimulate buyers to increase their purchasing power, which will prompt some server applications to carry more DRAM, such as video and audio streaming, public cloud and private cloud, which have the greatest demand for DRAM, so as to increase the capacity of server DRAM.

As for the average enterprise SSD capacity, as the price decline widened to 15.2% in the fourth quarter of this year, and it is still difficult to improve the oversupply situation in 2023, the price is likely to continue to be revised. However, as the price of NAND Flash is more flexible than that of DRAM, the price reduction will stimulate the increase of the carrying capacity of the whole machine. In addition, the new generation of CPU platform supports PCIe 5.0transmission, and upgrading when the transmission speed doubles also contributes to the upward growth of average capacity. It is estimated that the average annual growth rate of enterprise SSD capacity will rise to 26.4% in 2023.

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