Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Let's start with some very interesting data we've seen recently:

First, China's car export data began to surpass that of Germany. From January to August this year, China's car exports rose 44.5 percent from a year earlier to 1.91 million vehicles-a figure that has surpassed that of Germany, according to the General Administration of Customs.

Meanwhile, China's auto exports have exceeded 300000 for the second month in a row since August, according to the China Automobile Association. Meanwhile, from January to September, the export of new energy vehicles was 389000, more than double that of the same period last year.

The average price of China's car exports has risen from $12900 in 2018 to $16400 in 2022, and reached $18900 in August, according to the Federation. In other words, the increase in the export volume of new energy vehicles has not only promoted the growth of China's automobile exports, but also led to the improvement of the average export price.

Second, the domestic car market is ushering in structural changes: Chinese brands are pulling down Japanese brands that were once in a very strong position at home.

In September, BYD Qin plus replaced long-time A-Class champion Nissan Xuanyi as the new top seller. Chinese brands, which have always been in a weak position in the car market, counterattack the Japanese system, which is the strongest in the car market.

We checked: in 2021, the market share of independent brands dropped to 38.4%, while in September this year, the share of passenger cars of our own brands exceeded 50%, which is also the first time that the share of independent brands has exceeded 50%. Similarly, the sharp increase in sales of new energy vehicles has pushed up the share of independent brands.

The Japanese system, which was once strong in the Chinese market, has suffered a sharp decline. In the first eight months of this year, the market share of Japanese brands in China fell below 20%. In September, the retail share of Japanese brands fell to 17.7%. When the market performance of the Japanese system is at its strongest, it has surpassed the German system, with a market share of nearly 24%.

Today, in addition to Toyota is still maintaining the market base, Japanese brands in Honda, Nissan have declined to varying degrees. The reason behind this is the strength of Chinese brand cars, and the market share of Chinese brands has reached an all-time high.

This is followed by a third interesting change: if you compare the prices of cars in the United States and China, the two largest single markets in the world, you will also find that the price gap between the two important markets for the same model is widening.

We observe two objects: Tesla and Toyota. In 2021, Tesla in the United States is raising prices almost every month. On March 11, 2021, the price of Tesla's standard version of Model 3 was adjusted for the first time, from $36990 to $37490. Since then, there have been four more price increases in two months.

In the second half of 2021, Tesla's price increase rate did not slow down. This year, Tesla raised prices twice in North America in March and June, and Tesla FSD also raised prices in North America twice this year. If you compare the price before the first price increase in March 2021, the Model 3 standard version has risen from $36990 to $46990, and the Model Y long-lasting version has risen from $51490 to $65990 today.

During this period, Tesla also adjusted the price several times in the Chinese market, but the number and extent of the adjustment was much smaller than that in North America. In China, Tesla even opened preferential means in a disguised form through the car insurance business. According to some recent media reports, Tesla is likely to continue to cut prices in the coming months, but Tesla officially gave a negative answer.

Photo Source: automotive electronics designer in the analysis of Tesla's sharp price increase in North America, the Nippon Keizai Shimbun reported that in the past year and a half, Tesla raised the price of the minimum Model 3 car by 24% in the United States due to unprecedented inflation. In the same period, the price increase of Tesla electric vehicles in China was controlled at 12%.

Although vehicles sold in the United States and China use different types of batteries even if they are the same, so it is difficult to make a simple comparison, the price difference between the United States and China, which was about $3040 in late March 2021, expanded to 2.6 times in a year and a half, or about $7840, the article said.

Tabulation: product driving data Source: public Information incomplete Statistics Unit: us Dollar on the other hand, the price of models produced in China and the United States has also begun to make a historic reversal, and the impression that it is cheaper to buy a car in the United States than in China has been broken.

Take Toyota as an example this time. As a hot-selling model made in China and the United States, the price of the RAV4 is changing in the past few years.

When the RAV4 fourth-generation model went on sale in China and the United States a decade ago, it sold for about $24145-$27855 in North America, or 151000-174000 yuan (at the exchange rate at the time), compared with 183800-273800 yuan in China.

By the fifth generation listed in 2019, the price of RAV4 in North America has risen to 26545 US dollars, about 177000 yuan (at the exchange rate at that time). After listing in North America, the price of the fifth generation RAV4 introduced into China is 174800-258800 yuan.

In other words, RAV4 is becoming more and more expensive in the United States and cheaper in China.

The current situation is even more interesting. According to a recent study by Jerry Insurance and savings Company of the United States, under the condition that it is difficult to find a new car, the price of second-hand cars in the United States has gone up. Among them, the most serious price reversal between used cars and new cars is that the average price of second-hand cars in RAV4,2021 is 5900 dollars higher than that of new models in 2022. And at home? There is also a discount of 20,000 yuan for the Rongfang terminal.

In the case of the classic Carola, for example, the average price of the low-end model in the United States is about 22000 US dollars, equivalent to more than 150000 yuan, while the price of the Carola in the Chinese market has been reduced to about 100000 yuan.

When it comes to electric cars, the previous phenomenon of "cheap in the United States and expensive in China" does not exist at all. Take Toyota's first all-electric model, bZ4X, which went on sale in China and the United States this year. In the US market, the starting price of the rear-drive version of bZ4X is $47625, while the starting price of the all-wheel drive version is $48780, about 317000 yuan and 325000 yuan, respectively.

And that's not all. Toyota dealers in the United States are still selling the car at a price increase of as much as $30,000, although the car is not as popular in the North American market as expected.

In China, Toyota is still localizing the model in two joint ventures, FAW Toyota and Guangzhou Auto Toyota, to market the model, and the price of the four-wheel drive version is lower than that of the North American rear drive version.

Unlike the price increase in the United States, the car began to roll up at the time of pricing by the two joint ventures. after GAC Toyota announced the official price of GAC Toyota bZ4X, which was subsidized by 199800-287800, FAW Toyota immediately lowered its pre-price to 200000-290000 yuan, which is likely to be even lower when it goes on sale.

This change in the consumer market comes from two aspects: the ability of China's automobile supply chain, especially the advantage of power battery supply chain, has reduced local production costs; and the first rise of Chinese car manufacturers in the new energy vehicle market has led to a fundamental change in the competitive situation of China's electric vehicle market. First of all, cars as a commodity have fundamentally changed their market position between China and the United States.

A revolutionary reversal is taking place in China's auto industry and the global auto industry.

Change in the automobile industry: the different effects of inflation and the supply chain have led to stronger car sales in China and more and more expensive cars in the United States. what has happened to the global auto industry?

Mr Musk is not throwing away the blame for the price increase to inflation.

One of the economic factors contributing to the change in the price gap between China and the United States is the most serious inflation that the United States is experiencing in 40 years. In fact, not only Tesla, but also the American auto industry has been affected. Ford CEO Jim Farley also said recently that it now costs $25000 (168000 yuan) more to build an electric Mustang Mach-E than to build a fuel-powered SUV. Coupled with the impact of lack of core, American cars almost fall into a vicious circle in which the increase in production costs leads to a decrease in production and an increase in terminal prices, which in turn affects market demand and leads to a decline in sales in the whole automobile market.

Therefore, the fundamental reason why Toyota's bZ4X price increase, which is not very popular in North America, and that the price of RAV4 used cars is higher than that of new cars, is that Toyota has reduced production due to supply chain problems, resulting in fewer new cars, and the price increase that dealers like to see. Last year, multinational car companies such as Honda and Toyota reduced production in the United States due to lack of cores. At the same time, the rise in the price of new cars in the United States also followed. In August last year, the average selling price of cars in the United States exceeded $41000, a record high.

Falling sales and higher prices are a red flag in itself.

While the test is not over, the inflation reduction Act passed by the US Senate has put forward many stringent requirements on the local production of automobile manufacturers under the banner of tax credits and stimulating the consumption of new energy vehicles.

For example, the bill has certain restrictions on the tax credit for electric vehicles, requiring that only automakers assembled in North America, cars sold for less than $55000, SUV, Van and trucks under $80,000 are eligible for this preferential policy. This article excludes Hyundai, South Korea, which has not yet been produced in North America.

At the same time, the bill requires automakers to gradually improve the degree of localization of batteries, and the proportion of key battery materials processed or extracted must be increased year by year.

Time magazine reported screenshot source: from the Internet, for automakers, this bill means that if they want to enter the US electric car market, they must realize local production, especially the localization of the power battery industry chain. so as to reduce the dependence on China's power battery supply chain.

It's not that easy right now, and it will be at the expense of raising the cost of producing new energy vehicles in the United States for some time.

What prompted the United States to make this decision is China's position in the power battery industry chain.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) mentioned in its Global Electric vehicle Outlook 2022 that, given its lower development and manufacturing costs, it helps to narrow the price gap with conventional cars. In 2021, the weighted median price of electric vehicles in China was only 10 per cent higher than that of traditional products, while the average price in other major markets was 45-50 per cent.

In other words, compared with other global markets, the price gap between Chinese electric cars and traditional cars is the smallest. Dong Yang, chairman of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, believes that the main reason for this difference is that the cost of power batteries in China is relatively low.

Toyota bZ4X is equipped with Ningde era batteries in China, and the two models of the North American version are equipped with Panasonic batteries and Ningde era batteries, respectively, which means that the North American version of bZ4X batteries need to be imported and the cost is further increased, thus creating the "lowest price in the world" for the Chinese version of bZ4X.

After Tesla was domestically made, because it was equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries from the Ningde era, the price of the Model3 was once reduced to an all-time low of 235900, and after Model Y was made, it was because the price was nearly 150000 lower than the imported version, replacing Model3 to become the best-selling model in China, which in turn promoted the position of Model Y in the global electric car market.

This has a lot to do with Tesla's establishment of an in-depth and effective local supply chain in China, especially the cost advantage of local power battery supply. at present, the localization rate of Tesla's Shanghai super factory industrial chain has exceeded 95%.

In August this year, Tesla Shanghai Super Factory completed the 1 million vehicle off the line: due to the ability of online China to build up the supply chain of new energy vehicles, foreign giants that have slowed down in the Chinese market have accelerated their pace in China's new energy vehicle market. For example, the Times recently reported that BMW of Germany plans to relocate its production base of electric Mini cars from the UK to China. However, even if they enjoy the better supply chain capacity and cost advantages in the world, they are also facing the most competitive regional market at present.

There is another reason behind Tesla's unbridled price increase in North America, because Tesla has strong demand and little competition in North America, so he has nothing to fear. However, in the Chinese market, Tesla has more and more competitors, and Tesla has to carry out preferential operations through the insurance business and repeatedly create price reduction signals in the Chinese market. This American car company, which claims to use "production costs to determine vehicle prices", has felt a competitive crisis in the Chinese market that has not been felt in other global markets, even in the United States.

This threat also exists, or even greater, for Japanese brands entering China's electric car market this year. In terms of pricing strategy, both Toyota bZ4X and Nissan Ariya show a lack of confidence. Nissan Ariya, which went public at the end of September, achieved a discount of 40,000 to 50,000 in disguised form by means of various subsidies and cash returns.

Volkswagen ID. Series of domestic after the repeated terminal price cuts, even so failed to replicate its success in the Chinese fuel vehicle market.

At the same time, Chinese brands not only have higher bargaining power in the new energy vehicle market, such as BYD in short supply under hot sales, and even crush the market share of fuel vehicles in several market segments.

Chinese car prices are getting higher and higher because Chinese brands have higher bargaining power, rather than from economic, supply chain costs and other pressures as in the United States. Furthermore, under the premise of the local supply chain advantage of China's automobile industry, Chinese automobile enterprises are becoming stronger through the improvement of their own technological capabilities.

The popularity of Chinese brand cars in overseas markets also confirms this.

In early October, SIXT, Germany's largest car rental company, announced that it would purchase 100000 BYD Atto 3 series new energy vehicles by 2028: originating from the Internet, this further shows that cars have become the largest trade industrial products and show the biggest and most interesting changes in global trade: Chinese cars are becoming more and more expensive and more and more accepted in the global market. On the other hand, the US auto industry, which lacks a strong supply chain, is being weakened by the US government with new trade means.

It is this fundamental reversal that scares global competitors.

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: ID:Ping-Drive, by Dong Nan and Wang Fei.

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