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Man's fear of machines began with the first industrial revolution.

Because the productivity of machines is much higher than that of human beings, it has triggered a series of thoughts, such as the substitution of tools for people, the relationship between people and technology, technological determinism, technological phobia and so on. With the overall transformation of society by industrial production, these thoughts are also deeply embedded in a variety of social issues. During this period, people's anxiety that machine production may deprive workers of their jobs, that is, "fear of substitution" has become the most prominent anxiety in society. The extreme performance is the large-scale "Ludwig movement".

But times have changed-the relationship between people and machines may lead to a new story because of the arrival of the inflection point of the labor force.

With the deepening of industrialization, the development and progress of industrial production, the change of labor cost and population structure, labor shortage has replaced labor surplus and become the main contradiction faced by the major manufacturing countries.

For example, the shortage of labor in China's manufacturing industry has almost become the norm. However, some characteristics of industrial production determine that higher wages and hiring is only a stopgap measure, and the profit margins of most manufacturing industries are unlikely to support sustained wage increases, which is the basic inherent logic of the shift of manufacturing to areas with low labor costs.

Whether it is to reduce labor costs or to solve the labor shortage, using robots into production has become an inevitable choice for the manufacturing industry, and it is the main driving force for the prosperity of China's industrial robot industry in recent years.

In terms of market size, although the trade conflict between China and the United States has had a certain impact on the industry, the number of industrial robots worldwide is still growing steadily. According to IFR (World Robotics Federation), the number of industrial robots in the world in 2020 was 3.015 million, an increase of 10.4% over 2019 and more than 160% in 10 years (1.153 million in 2011) [1].

China is the largest market for industrial robots in the world. And the growth rate is much higher than the industry average. According to IFR, the annual installation of robots in China ranked first in 2020, reaching 168000, more than the sum of the 2nd and 15th, and more than seven times that of a decade ago (23000) [1].

Global installation of industrial robots in 2020, figure source | IFR

China's boom is not alone. Strong demand for industrial robots has also emerged in the United States, another important manufacturing hub of the global supply chain. According to the American Association for the Promotion of Automation (Association for Advancing Automation), US robot orders increased by 40% in the first quarter of 2022 and 21% in 2021 overall-this is also the result of a worsening labor shortage [2].

Therefore, industrial robots have a key impact on the manufacturing industry in the future. This paper will start with the general situation of the industrial chain, analyze the key links, and describe in detail the current situation, main restrictive factors and future development trend of industrial robots in China.

The main responsibility of industrial robot is to carry, palletize, weld, polish, spray, assemble and so on on the production line. it is widely used in automobile manufacturing, 3C electronics, metal processing, food and beverage, semiconductors and other industries. The research, manufacture and application of industrial robots is an important symbol to measure a country's scientific and technological innovation and high-end manufacturing level, and is known as "the pearl at the top of the manufacturing crown".

Although the related research started in the 1970s, the localization rate of industrial robots in China is still low. In particular, the high-end manufacturing of core components, which account for a large proportion of costs and high profits, are still controlled by foreign manufacturers.

Industrial robot industry chain the upstream of the industrial robot industrial chain is parts, including core parts and other parts; the middle reaches is ontology manufacturing, which can be divided into many types according to the different mechanical structure and movement mode; and the downstream is robot system integration, which is applied to different industry scenarios.

Collation of ▲ public information | hard technology tabulation of fruit shell

In the cost composition of industrial robots, ontology manufacturing accounts for only about 22%, and core components account for more than 70%.

▲ public information collation

In terms of profit, the body manufacturing is only 15%, and the profit margins of the three core components are all higher than this: 40% of the reducer, 35% of the servo system, and 25% of the controller.

▲ public information collation

If we look at the domestic robot industry from the bottom up, we will find that at present, the localization rate of the downstream application end of the industrial robot is relatively high, but the middle and upper reaches are facing obvious choke status.

Domestic manufacturers have advantages in channel, price, service and so on, so they mainly compete in the field of system integration to realize the application deployment of industrial robots in specific scenarios. As of June 2020, the MIR DATABANK database included a total of 9456 local industrial robot system integrators, accounting for 80 per cent of the national integration market. The competitiveness of local integrators in the electronics industry is strong, while in the traditional automobile manufacturing field, the competitiveness is weak, showing a large number of small-scale formats [3].

The localization rate of the ontology manufacturing link in the middle reaches is very low, only 27% [4]. However, ontology manufacturing is a relatively complex topic. If you focus on the field of industrial robots, the industry has long been dominated by the "four big families" (Fanako, Anchuan, ABB, Kuka), and only a few domestic manufacturers can barely follow. However, if we focus on the more macro robot ontology manufacturing, in the fields of mobile robot (AGV / AMR), cooperative robot and so on, the competitiveness of local manufacturers is good in recent years, and the localization rate of robot body manufacturing is considerable. As the profit margin of this link is not high, and it is too difficult to participate in the competition, there are different views on whether to localize or not, which is closely related to the specific business model and development route of enterprises, and needs specific analysis of specific problems.

In the upstream link, the localization rate of the three core components of reducer, servo system and controller is only 36.53%, 24.50% and 31.20% [5]. Compared with the complex mid-stream manufacturing link, the logic of the core components is more simple and straightforward-no matter what the other links are, the demand of this link will always exist, which is the cornerstone of the whole robot industry. If the domestic substitution of upstream parts can be realized, it can not only solve the security problem of supply chain, but also significantly reduce the application cost of industrial robot, shorten the delivery cycle, further promote the application of industrial robot and improve the level of intelligent manufacturing.

Core components of industrial robot

▲ industrial robot working scene and composition, image source | Guangzheng Hang Seng

The core components of industrial robot include controller, reducer and servo system. These three devices determine that the industrial robot can realize the precise movement of automation and replace manpower in some production links. This also means that its quality has a decisive impact on the performance of the final product, which is the main direction of the localization process.

Controller

The controller is the main part that determines the function and performance of the robot, which is equivalent to the brain, and can control the position, posture, trajectory, operation sequence and movement time of the robot in the workspace.

▲ industrial robot controller (left) and body (right), image source | ABB official website

The controller mainly consists of hardware and software. The hardware part is the industrial control board, including the main control unit and part of the signal processing circuit. The software part mainly includes the underlying operating system, control algorithm, secondary expansion development and so on.

The controller receives the detection signal from the sensor, according to the requirements of the operation task, sends out instruction information after algorithm calculation, and drives each motor in the robot joint to rotate, so as to realize the precise control of the robot.

The basic functions of the control system include memory, teaching, coordinate setting, contact with peripheral equipment, position servo, fault diagnosis and safety protection, and so on.

Servo system

Servo system is the power system of robot, which is equivalent to "heart". The servo system receives information from the controller and converts it into torque and speed to drive the control object.

Working principle of ▲ Servo system, Graph Source | Cinda Securities

The servo system consists of three parts: servo driver, servo motor and encoder. The servo driver decomposes the information received from the controller into commands that can be executed by a single degree of freedom system and transmits it to the servo motor; the servo motor converts the received electrical signal into speed and torque to drive the control object; the encoder feeds back the motor coding signal to the controller, which largely determines the accuracy of the servo system.

At present, the servo system of industrial robot is mainly the AC servo system in the electric servo system. According to the power, it can be divided into small / medium / large servo system.

Speed reducer

The reducer is the core component that controls the motion of the robot, which is equivalent to the "joint". The reducer is an intermediate device connecting the servo system and the end-effector, which can reduce the rotational speed and increase the torque, thus driving the "joint" movement.

Through the gear meshing, the reducer decelerates the speed of the motor to the actual speed of the robot's "joints", and outputs a larger torque to drive the "joints" movement.

There are mainly two kinds of reducers in industrial robots: harmonic reducer and RV reducer.

▲ RV Reducer bearing Classification, drawing Source | GB / T 34897-2017

According to the definition of GB / T 34897-2017 "Precision bearing for RV Reducer of Rolling bearing Industrial Robot" [6], RV reducer is a mixture of traditional cycloidal pinwheel and planetary gear transmission. The RV reducer consists of a number of high-density bearings and gears, which are used in all joints of heavy-duty robots, as well as some joints of light-duty robots, similar to positions such as "big arms" and "shoulders".

▲ Harmonic Reducer structure, graphic Source | Green Harmonic prospectus

According to the definition of GB / T 30819-2014 "Harmonic Gear Reducer for Robot" [7], the harmonic reducer is composed of wave generator, flexible wheel and steel wheel. The harmonic reducer has a simple structure and is generally used in some joints of light-loaded robots, similar to the positions of "forearm" and "wrist".

What is the progress of the localization of core components? At present, the level of localization of the core parts of industrial robots in China is different, and there is a big gap. The progress of the controller is the most gratifying, while the reducer is faced with more technical problems.

Reducer: RV reducer becomes the key to "neck jam"

▲ Global Reducer Market, Tu Yuan | Guang Zheng Hang Seng

The global reducer market has been monopolized by Japan for many years. Nabotsk, a giant of RV reducers, accounts for 60 per cent of the global market, while Hamenako, a leader in harmonic reducers, is not far behind with 15 per cent of the market.

Founded in September 2003 in Japan, Nabotsk has been working in the field of RV reducer for nearly 20 years. It has been well received all over the world because of its "high precision, high rigidity, long life" and "small size, light weight". Hamenko was founded in Japan in 1970 and has been ploughing the field of harmonic reducer for more than 50 years. However, the relevant domestic enterprises began to develop the reducer relatively late, so it is difficult to catch up with Japanese enterprises in the cycle of experience accumulation and practice verification.

Relatively speaking, the degree of localization of harmonic reducer is relatively high. Because there are only three parts, the mechanical structure is relatively simple, and Hamenak's special benefit expires in 2008, domestic manufacturers begin to seize the opportunity of learning and research and development.

At present, Hamenak still occupies a large market share in China, followed by domestic manufacturers Green Harmonic and Laifu Harmonic. These two enterprises have more than ten years of R & D experience, and their harmonic reducer products have a small gap with Hamenak in output speed, transmission accuracy and other performance, but there is still a gap in precision maintenance service life, transmission efficiency and so on.

Comparison of ▲ reducer product indicators at home and abroad, Tu Yuan | Soochow Securities

On the one hand, the price of domestic harmonic reducer is low, and the delivery period is short, so it has won many orders from domestic robot manufacturers. For example, the same type of products of green harmonics and Laifu harmonics are 40% 50% lower than Hamenak, and the average delivery period is about 2 months (10 months for Hamenak) [8]. Green harmonics are expected to account for 80% of the domestic robot manufacturers [9].

On the other hand, the production capacity of domestic manufacturers is still low. Laifu Harmonic has just exceeded the monthly production capacity of 20,000 units in 2019 [10], the production capacity of green harmonics is only 90,000 units in 2019, and Hameneko reached 1.8 million units in 2018 [8].

At present, the domestic replacement process of reducer is only in its infancy, and there is still a big gap between it and the international advanced level.

And because Hamenako has a richer product line, wider coverage, and has a solid cooperative relationship with leading robot manufacturers around the world, it provides lower prices and larger supply scale. How to break into the existing supply chain and establish the relationship between upstream and downstream is also a challenge that domestic manufacturers must face.

In the field of RV reducer, because of its more complex components and higher bearing strength, the difficulty of manufacturing and the investment scale of production line are much larger than that of harmonic reducer. The core difficulty of RV reducer lies in the precise coordination of various processes, such as material selection, tooth surface heat treatment, machining accuracy, group technology, assembly precision, etc., if the fit is not precise enough, it will affect the wear and life of the product.

For example, the Nabotsk RV reducer can maintain an average life of 10000 hours, and the accuracy and stiffness do not decrease with the increase of service time. However, the life of domestic products is less than 6000 hours, and there are abnormal phenomena such as noise and heating in use, which means that there is poor gear meshing, excessive friction and wear in the reducer [11].

Therefore, there is a big difference between China and the international level in the field of RV reducer. Some leading enterprises, such as double-ring transmission, Qinchuan machine tools, Nantong Zhenkang, Zhongdalide and so on, have an annual output of less than 100000 sets. Nabotsk estimates that its annual production will reach 2 million units in 2026.

Servo system: there is more room for domestic substitution.

▲ China Servo system Market pattern, figure Source | forward-looking Industrial Research Institute

At present, the local servo market is occupied by Japan, Europe and the United States, Chinese mainland and Taiwan manufacturers [13]. Among them, the middle and high-end markets are mainly monopolized by European, American and Japanese enterprises.

Japanese servo represented by Yaskawa motor has high product stability after decades of technical precipitation; European products represented by Siemens emphasize high integration and deeply combine servo system with upstream control system, the motor is smaller and the motion control precision is higher; while the domestic servo represented by Huichuan mainly depends on the advantage of performance-to-price ratio to meet the needs of domestic small and medium-sized enterprises in the low-end field.

In terms of power output, the output power (determined by torque and speed) of domestic, Japanese and European servo systems is small, but there is still a certain gap in motion control performance. For example, the frequency of the speed loop usually reflects the fast response performance, and the higher the frequency, the greater the bandwidth, the better the fast response performance. As can be seen from the table below, the speed loop frequency of Siemens can reach 2k, Anchuan 1.5k, and Huichuan only 1.2k [14].

Performance comparison of ▲ Servo Motor, Graph Source | Cinda Securities

In addition, there are some gaps in domestic servo, such as large motor size, insufficient encoder accuracy, low product stability and so on.

But domestic manufacturers are catching up.

The average price of Chinese brands is 15% to 30% lower than that of foreign brands, and they actively cooperate with downstream enterprise customers to develop customized solutions, and gradually occupy the middle and low-end market by virtue of price advantages and service capabilities [15]. In 2021, Huichuan's market share reached 15.9%, successfully leading Anchuan, Delta and other manufacturers. And Eston, Guangzhou CNC and other manufacturers are also breaking through, the total number of local servo manufacturers is more than 300 [16].

With the continuous approach of the performance of domestic and foreign products, coupled with the continuous verification of stability and reliability with practice, domestic manufacturers led by Huichuan will have the opportunity to further replace foreign manufacturers and expand market share.

Controller: the hardware localization gap is small. The controller is the core component with the smallest gap between Chinese and foreign products.

Mature industrial robot manufacturers usually develop their own controllers to ensure unity, stability and maintain the technical system. Therefore, the market share of the controller and the robot body are basically the same. This means that the traditional "four families" of industrial robots are still in the lead in this field.

The controller is divided into hardware and software. As the hardware (chips, circuits, etc.) are generally outsourced, the gap between robot manufacturers is small. However, there is a big gap between domestic manufacturers and the traditional "four families" in software, and there is still a long way to go from "usable" to "easy to use".

As the brain of the industrial robot, the controller plays a decisive role in the performance of the robot. For the servo motor with the same performance, a good control algorithm can greatly improve the accuracy, speed, stability and so on.

For example, in the field of small load welding, the repetitive positioning accuracy of domestic industrial robots is roughly the same as that of the "four families", generally reaching 0.05mm, which has been able to meet the needs of automobile welding production, but the highest accuracy of Fanuke can reach 0.02mm. In the maximum shaft speed, the "four families" can reach 700 °/ s, and only a few leading enterprises in domestic manufacturers can reach this level [17].

The software part of the controller includes the robot operating system, the underlying control algorithm, the secondary development of the application process algorithm and so on. Among them, the operating system has both dedicated system and open source operating system. At the algorithm level, the underlying algorithm is the foundation, such as path planning, behavior decision and so on. Domestic manufacturers have a large gap in this aspect, which leads to the lack of accuracy, stability, response speed and other performance of the algorithm in the secondary development of different industry scenarios.

At present, domestic robot ontology manufacturers such as Easton, Xinsong and Xinshida can produce controllers, but in terms of software algorithms, more data, practical accumulation and experience are needed to make a breakthrough.

In the future development trend of the industry, in the "14th five-year Plan" document, the plan for the development of the industry is: by 2025, China will become the global source of robot technology innovation, high-end manufacturing agglomeration and new highland for integrated applications. A number of robot core technologies and high-end products have made breakthroughs, the comprehensive index of the whole machine has reached the international advanced level, and the performance and reliability of key components have reached the level of similar international products [18].

The current reality is that the industrial robot industry has only made a breakthrough in the middle and low end of the field, and there are still a large number of technical problems to be solved in the high-end field. At present, the core components are still precision manufacturing in nature, and the established industrial manufacturers in Japan and Germany started early, with decades or even hundreds of years of technology accumulation and practice verification. Chinese manufacturers can only catch up in the later stage, starting from OEM and R & D of middle and low-end products for foreign manufacturers, and gradually moving closer to international first-class products.

But there is still a chance for domestic substitution.

First of all, after breaking through the relatively basic technology, domestic manufacturers can stabilize the market in the middle and low-end fields at lower prices, and then gradually expand their share; secondly, because the supply cycle is relatively short, and can provide customized services for downstream enterprise customers, domestic robot ontology manufacturers will probably give priority to domestic core components.

At the same time, when the robot as a whole moves towards the intelligent era, China's leading "artificial intelligence" technology will give industrial robots a new "mind". For example, the addition of vision sensors expands the application scene of industrial robots. Through machine vision technology, robots have "eyes" and become more flexible. As a result, it will bring the update iteration of the control algorithm and bring new opportunities for domestic manufacturers.

With the development of cooperative robot, the robot is no longer limited to the operation of fixed stations, but can flexibly adapt to different working environments, so as to achieve man-machine cooperation. In this field, many entrepreneurial manufacturers have emerged and developed rapidly. As a result, domestic robot body manufacturers may seize the market of traditional industrial robot manufacturers, and core parts suppliers also have the opportunity to grow.

Of course, the most important thing is still to narrow the technology gap with foreign manufacturers. It is mentioned in the 14th five-year Plan for the Development of Robot Industry that it is necessary to "make up for the shortcomings of industrial development." promote the joint research of industry, university and research, make up for the shortcomings of special materials, core components and processing technology, improve the function, performance and reliability of the key parts of the robot, and develop robot control software and core algorithms. improve the function and intelligent level of the robot control system. " [18]

Specifically, it is needed in the development of the entire robot industry chain:

Strengthen the overall planning of multi-resources, give full play to the bridge role of industry associations, and strengthen the dynamic monitoring of the robot industry.

Increase fiscal, taxation and financial support, give full play to the role of government procurement, promote the investment of various industrial funds, and support the listing of qualified enterprises.

Create a good market environment, strengthen support for the protection of property rights, standardize market bidding and procurement, etc.

Improve the talent guarantee system and support universities and scientific research institutes to train high-end talents

Deepen international exchanges, encourage foreign enterprises to set up R & D institutions in China, promote robot products and solutions to "go global", and so on [18].

In addition to the specific technical problems, the policy benefits from the government, the investment of social capital and the support of downstream industries also play a vital role in the localization of the industrial robot industry chain. With the support of good internal and external factors, the high-quality development of the industry in the future can be expected.

References:

[1] IFR presents World Robotics 2021 reports: https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/robot-sales-rise-again

[2] USIA: robot influx into factories under "labor shortage" US robot orders soared 40% in the first quarter, https://www.cls.cn/ detail / 1028822

[3] MIR Databank: https://mp.ofweek.com/robot/a145693428986

[4] IFR weighs in on China's five-year plan for robotics: https://www.therobotreport.com/ifr-weighs-in-on-chinas-five-year-plan-for-robotics/

[5] High-tech robot: https://www.gg-robot.com/ art-72180.html

[6] full-text disclosure system of national standards GB / T 34897-2017: http://c.gb688.cn/ bzgk / gb / showGb?type=online&hcno=15F4A7AAF63678C34CD431195691A834

[7] full-text disclosure system of national standards GB / T 30819-2014: http://c.gb688.cn/ bzgk / gb / showGb?type=online&hcno=CAE1AB20359DEC83D5241A4A9D1DE325

[8] "Green harmonics: domestic leaders of robot core components that stand out from tight siege", Soochow Securities, 2020.11.25

[9] "Special Research report on Green harmonics: prying the fulcrum of Chinese Robots", China Merchants Securities, 2021.06.17

[10] "Laifu Harmonic: surpass the" hurdle "of monthly production of 20,000 units: https://www.gg-robot.com/ art-67131.html

[11] "Robots are expected to usher in an inflection point in the short term and increase the localization rate in the medium and long term", Fortune Securities, 2020.01.06

[12] Nabotsk official website: https://www.nabtesco.com/ en/

[13] "domestic industrial robot industry will move towards the pyramid in the next decade: prejudice? Foresight? "https://mp.weixin.qq.com/ s / MsqKzIF1Ko8dKUpErUGSLg

[14] "Intelligent Industrial basic parts III: servo system", Cinda Securities, 2021.03.07

[15] "2019 China Industrial Robot Industry depth report", head Leopard Research Institute

[16] "China's Servo opportunism" Fangzhi Bureau: https://www.jiemian.com/ article / 7116189.html

[17] "comparison of market scale, application field and performance index of domestic automobile industry robot (2021)"

[18] Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other 15 departments: "the 14th five-year Plan for the Development of Robot Industry" http://www.gov.cn/ zhengce / zhengceku / 2021-12lem28 / content_5664988.htm

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: fruit Shell hard Technology (ID:guokr233), author: freezing Point Editor: Chen Juanlei

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