Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

"can an electric two-wheeler run in power-on mode? "

The power exchange mode, which can bring pure electric vehicles back to life in just a few minutes, has always been regarded as the ultimate mode of replenishing energy to eliminate owners' anxiety about driving and solve the charging problem. Companies such as Weilai, Geely and Ningde era have driven into the track and began to lay out their respective exchange power station networks.

However, public data show that by the end of June this year, the number of new energy vehicles in China has exceeded 1 million, the number of charging infrastructure in the country is 3.918 million, while the number of power stations is only 1582. Obviously, the limited size of the site makes the power exchange mode slightly "bony".

Although the development of the power exchange mode in the field of new energy vehicles is not smooth, it seems to blossom in the field of two-wheeled electric vehicles, such as the "Ali system" Hello, the Chinese iron tower, the exchange jointly created by Haojue and Yadi, and so on. are the mainstream players in the industry.

By the end of 2021, there were 340 million electric two-wheeled vehicles in China, according to the China Bicycle Association. Coupled with the new fire regulations strictly prohibit two-wheeled electric cars upstairs, the energy market spawned by various factors seems to be something to be reckoned with.

Then, can the emergence of the power exchange mode of two-wheeled electric vehicles completely change the energy replenishment mode and car experience of users? Will the pain point of power exchange for new energy vehicles also be reflected in the power exchange mode of two-wheeled electric vehicles? Is there any possibility of using experience for reference between the two?

"01" two-wheeled car power change, "suitable for business, not suitable for home" two-wheeled electric vehicle users have been hard charging for a long time.

Compared with new energy vehicles, two-wheeled electric vehicles do not have fast charging capacity. As a result, it often takes 7 to 8 hours to fill a two-wheeled electric car with a range of about 40km. If the commuting distance is a little longer, you will have to charge it every day.

"as long as the car is recharged, it can't be pulled out for seven or eight hours, and if you want to go out and buy something temporarily, you can only walk." A year ago, Zhang Mei (a pseudonym), who lives in Longgang Baolong, Shenzhen, bought a two-wheeled electric car to facilitate commuting and taking her children to and from school.

He came home from work every day to recharge his car, and it was quite convenient to travel with full electricity the next morning, but he later found that there were more and more electric two-wheelers in the community. Whether he can charge the car smoothly at home depends on luck. "if you still can't get a free socket to charge before going to bed, you'll have to take the bus the next day."

Recently, Zhang Mei, who felt that it was inconvenient for the two-wheeler to charge, found a change box near the rental house, and the slogan "extremely fast change of electricity" on the box attracted her deeply. However, after scanning the code and understanding the power exchange process, she backed down.

"if the electricity is changed 20 times a month, the charge is 99 yuan. If the electricity is changed unlimited, the charge is 299 yuan." Zhang Mei told her to understand notes, compared with charging, even if she chooses the lowest 99 yuan / 20 monthly power exchange package, the cost of replenishing energy does not have an advantage.

Even if the two-wheeler is recharged every day for eight hours, according to the current charge of 1 yuan per 4 hours for most of the 300W charging piles in Shenzhen, it will only cost 2 yuan. Even if the daily charge, it only costs 60 yuan per month. If you buy a monthly charging card, it costs only 40 yuan for 30 charges, which is even lower.

However, Mr. Zhang, the operator of an electric two-wheeled exchange power station, disagreed with her concern. "to be honest, the goal of changing the power station is that if the family users who are penny-pinching, we would have starved to death." the main users of the exchange power station are actually takeaways. "

Even commercial two-wheelers designed for running singles and equipped with large-capacity lithium batteries take six hours on a full charge, making it difficult to support a rider's daily business with a range of 80km, he told him. Some data show that the takeout worker delivers 30 takeouts and needs to run about 100 kilometers.

"there are a lot of takeout boys who say that sometimes after lunch, they have to recharge the car in the afternoon and then run for dinner." In order not to miss the peak of dinner, many takeout workers can only give up the small peak of afternoon tea takeout ordered by office workers. "as for takeout workers who run afternoon tea orders, they often miss the small peak of midnight snacks."

Even if a takeout worker buys two batteries, one for use and one for charging, and replaces them at any time, Mr. Zhang admits that after several years of development, most of the once popular intelligent charging cabinets have been in disrepair for a long time, which has affected their normal use. A reporter from Beijing Daily visited smart charging cabinets in eight residential areas and found that there were five "strikes".

It can be seen that the emergence of the power-changing mode of two-wheeled vehicles, so that express riders who determine their daily income by running and measuring will no longer miss the opportunity to make money because of the problem of charging and waiting. Several takeaways who have used the power exchange service also revealed that the monthly power exchange fee of 299 yuan is not difficult for him to accept.

After all, if you save six hours of charging time a day, the takeout clerk can run an extra 15 to 20 takeouts, which can earn an extra 2500 yuan per month based on the delivery fee of 46.00 yuan per order. Is the real sense of spending money to buy time, time is money.

However, there are still some drawbacks in the popularization and promotion of the two-wheeled power exchange mode that seems to be "good" to the rider's wallet, and it cannot be said to have nothing to do with the disadvantages of the power exchange mode in the field of new energy vehicles, it can only be said to be exactly the same.

"02" Mini version of "changing electricity for New Energy vehicles"? "it's really convenient to change electricity, but only if you change cars first."

Zhang Xu (a pseudonym), a takeout rider in Guangzhou, told him to understand the notes that last week, on his way back to the rental house from work, he saw a fellow rider scanning the code in front of the electric cabinet to change the electricity. He found that changing electricity can really save him a lot of time, run more singles and make more money.

However, if the electric two-wheeler wants to replenish its energy by changing electricity, the premise is that the model supports the change of electricity. The commercial two-wheeled vehicle he has just bought for less than half a year is still a lead-acid battery. Therefore, if you want to change electricity and replenish energy, you must buy the model products specified by the power exchange brand.

"I slightly compared several brands, the range of 100 kilometers can be changed electric models, basically cost 4500 yuan." As for the electricity rental (separation of car and electricity) scheme similar to that of new energy vehicles, the price of a naked car is about 2800 yuan, 59 yuan per month, and promises to be on the grid for 1 or 2 years (guaranteed use) and 15 free electricity changes per month.

Zhang Xu admitted that he was thinking about 15 free power changes a month, and running takeout was not enough, so he gave up the so-called car-electricity separation plan in the first place. He also plans to sell his current car and pay for a replacement trolley. "but after estimating the price, I still have to get close to 1500 yuan, so I'd better consider taking a look."

Of course, in addition to the relatively high car price, the factors that led him to "think about it" and the worry that he would be "hanging on a tree" after buying a car designated by the replacement brand-after all, the batteries between different brands of trolley cars are not universal.

First of all, like the current situation of the replacement of new energy vehicles, there is no unified standard or agreement for the battery of electric two-wheelers. Therefore, the designated power exchange models of brand An often cannot use the batteries rented by brand B, "just like Weilai cars, it is the same reason that you can only go to the power station to change electricity."

Second, once the replacement brand closes down and runs away, the daily replenishment of the electric two-wheeler that you spend your money on will inevitably be affected. In addition, due to the lack of substitutability of the batteries and channels in the power exchange mode, the brand naturally controls the charge for the exchange of electricity, which goes up as soon as it goes up, and users who have bought a car have no "sense of security" to speak of.

"there are also some power exchange brands, cabinets and outlets are still very few, and it may not be convenient for riders to change electricity." Shenzhen rider Xiao Chen revealed that exchange stations of the same brand in different regions are often uneven and uneven. "Let's say Pingshan District, sometimes you can't find a change station within a radius of 7 or 8 kilometers."

In order to verify his statement, I understand that I downloaded several two-wheeler App, checked the location of the change station, and found that the layout was uneven. One of the brands that promised to declare "one change station for 5 kilometers", many changed the distance between the power stations, even more than ten kilometers apart.

"moreover, when the two-wheeler changes the power station, the means of battery dispatching is the same as sharing portable battery." Xiao Chen said that in this way, it often results in many areas with high demand for power exchange, where it is difficult to obtain electricity, while for those with low demand, a large number of fully charged batteries are idle, wasting resources.

It is not difficult to see that the malpractice pain points in the development of new energy vehicle power exchange business, such as non-uniform battery standards, non-universal battery standards, limited number of exchange power stations, uneven distribution and so on, also exist in the electric two-wheeler replacement mode.

But even so, in the future, the popularization and promotion of the power exchange mode of electric two-wheeled vehicles is still more smooth than the power exchange business of new energy vehicles. Why on earth is that?

"03" in the future, two-wheelers will only buy electricity that can be changed? "believe me, in the future, in addition to the takeout staff, more and more users will change electricity."

Talking about the topic of changing electricity for electric two-wheelers, Xiao Zhao, who runs an electric two-wheeler shop in Xixiang, Shenzhen, has always revealed his confidence in the future of the power exchange model. He told me that he understood the notes that in March this year, after understanding the power exchange mode of electric two-wheelers, he decisively transformed into a special electricity exchange store.

In other words, all the electric two-wheelers in his shop can be changed. Even in the months after the transition, customers constantly questioned whether the power replacement of two-wheelers could eventually become mainstream, he still believed that power replacement would be the ultimate mode of energy replenishment for two-wheelers.

"at present, the development trend of the power exchange industry and the iterative frequency of two-wheelers give me hope."

Xiao Zhao explained that many consumers may find it convenient to change electricity, but at present, they can still use their own two-wheelers, which is too wasteful to replace them, and it is also "definitely next time"-buy electric two-wheelers and then consider buying interchangeable models in the future. As for the node of changing cars, it often does not let the car companies wait too long.

Some experts believe that the current natural replacement cycle of electric two-wheelers is 3-5 years, and even many users, after using only 1-2 years, will choose to replace a new electric two-wheeler for longer range, better driving quality, and higher intelligence, and the iteration period is much shorter than that of new energy vehicles.

According to iResearch, the cumulative sales of two-wheeled electric vehicles in China reached 41 million in 2021. According to the analysis of Zheshang Securities, driven by the ownership of electric two-wheelers and the natural replacement cycle, the industry is expected to sell about 60 million vehicles in the future.

"as long as the power exchange mode is convenient enough, more and more people use it, the price tends to be affordable, and manufacturers advertise it properly, it is likely that at the iterative node of 3-5 years, more consumers will choose to buy two-wheeled cars with interchangeable electricity." Moreover, Xiao Zhao stressed that power-changing models will not be much more expensive than lithium trams of the same class and service life.

At present, customers feel that changing trams is expensive, and most of them compare the prices of traditional lead-acid models with models that can be exchanged electricity. After all, I believe many users can afford to spend thousands of yuan on an electric two-wheeler that can be changed. But consumers will have to think about spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on a new energy car that can change electricity.

In addition, due to the low battery capacity and low cost of electric two-wheelers, the site requirements for setting up changing cabinets are relatively small. Therefore, the investment needed to popularize the replacement of electric two-wheelers will not be very high. Street corners, convenience stores, community spaces, can set up two-wheeler change cabinets, operation in the form of self-help, without labor costs.

"the battery on an electric car costs more than 100,000 yuan. Even for portable lithium batteries that can run 100 kilometers, the price is only a few thousand yuan, and the cost of the cabinet is only a few thousand, and many enterprises dare to bet on the power exchange business." Xiao Zhao said that at present, players in the field of changing electricity for two-wheelers include not only production enterprises, but also small and medium-sized entrepreneurs.

[conclusion] it is precisely because of the large demand for electric two-wheelers and fast iteration, and the small investment in power exchange hardware and site costs, the power exchange mode of electric two-wheelers is inevitably faster and smoother than the power exchange business in the field of new energy vehicles, and the market prospect is also broader.

As for the problems of non-uniform industry standards and non-universal batteries, many operators also hope that manufacturers in the industry will take the lead in formulating a series of standards and norms to make batteries universal and exchangeable, so as to fundamentally allay the concerns of users-after all, the disunity of power exchange standards for new energy vehicles is precisely the biggest obstacle in their development.

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: understand Notes (ID:dongdong_note), written by: Shenle Editor: Qin Yan

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