Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

"Green battery", "ultimate energy", "clean power plant", "supergenerator". Fuel cells have won many awards from the scientific community.

Some people are pessimistic about the technology that is famous all over the world.

In January 2022, an independent German research institute published an article on Nature, pointing out that the commercialization of fuel cells was too slow. In the face of increasingly pressing carbon neutralization pressure, fuel cell vehicles are either put into production or out of business immediately, and investors are called on to devote their limited resources to the research and development of pure electric vehicles. [1]

Musk must be very sympathetic to this view. He has publicly criticized the fuel cell more than once, saying it is "extremely stupid" and "completely incomparable to lithium batteries".

Why don't the whole world hang from the lithium battery?

As a reminder, the world's proven lithium reserves can only meet 1.48 billion electric vehicles, and the commercialization of alternative sodium-ion batteries is not necessarily faster than fuel cells.

Is the fuel cell that "unbearable"? You have to see for yourself before you have the answer.

The expensive "toy" Musk is not black, and there are many technical and industrial chain problems in fuel cells that remain unsolved, such as the difficulty of hydrogen production, the high risk of liquid hydrogen transportation and the lack of construction of supporting hydrogenation stations.

From the businessman's point of view, cost is the biggest stumbling block to the commercialization of fuel cells.

In the 1930s, British engineer Francis Thomas Bacon (Francis Thomas Bacon) improved on the previous idea of "gas voltaic cells" to produce the world's first fuel cell. This kind of battery uses sodium hydroxide as electrolyte and consumes hydrogen and oxygen to generate electricity. In 1960, Pratt & Whitney, an American manufacturer of aircraft engines, granted bacon a patent.

Because the battery is as efficient as 70%, and the only product water is still available for drinking, the fuel cell has won the favor of NASA, signing a contract with Pratt & Whitney to use the fuel cell for the Apollo moon mission. [3]

With the application scenario, fuel cell technology has also developed rapidly, giving birth to a number of technology routes, such as:

According to different types of electrolytes, they can be divided into alkaline fuel cell, phosphoric acid fuel cell, molten carbonate fuel cell, solid oxide fuel cell, proton exchange membrane fuel cell and direct methanol fuel cell.

According to the type of fuel and reaction mechanism, it can be divided into hydrogen type, carbon type, nitrogen type and organic type fuel cell, in which the cell fueled by hydrogen, methanol, hydrazine and carbon monoxide is called hydrogen oxygen fuel cell. there are also metal fuel cells fueled by light metals such as aluminum, magnesium, lithium and zinc.

In addition, according to the working temperature of the battery, it can also be divided into high temperature fuel cell, medium temperature fuel cell and room temperature fuel cell.

Among them, hydrogen fuel cell has become the mainstream scheme under the background of "double carbon" because of its high calorific value and zero emission. Among the many technical routes of hydrogen fuel cell, proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) has the fastest commercial progress because of its advantages such as high power density, high energy conversion efficiency, low operating temperature, clean environmental protection and so on.

However, application scenarios and rich technical routes have failed to promote the take-off of fuel cells, and high manufacturing costs have held back.

According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the benchmark mineral intelligence agency, by the end of 2020, the average cost of lithium batteries has dropped to $110USD / kWh. The average battery capacity of electric vehicles is between 50kWh~90kWh and quite competitive with internal combustion engines [4]. At the third Future Energy Conference in 2021, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that the current cost of fuel cell system is 5000 yuan / kW [5].

Take the 2022 Tesla Model 3 rear-drive version as an example. The car uses 60kWh's lithium iron phosphate battery, which costs $6600, or about 44000 yuan, but if you want to use fuel cells to achieve the motor power of 202kW, it will cost as much as 1.01 million yuan.

Because of this, even though automakers are fascinated by fuel cells-Daimler, Ford, Nissan, Honda and GM have announced the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, they have given up since 2018.

At least so far, the fuel cell is just an "expensive toy".

What is the cost of fuel cells? Let's take proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) as an example to see its cost distribution.

According to the 2022 research report of Guorong Securities, the fuel cell system consists of stacks, air compressors and other three parts, accounting for 62%, 16% and 22% of the total cost, respectively. The stack with the highest proportion can be divided into catalyst, proton exchange membrane (electrolyte), bipolar plate, gas diffusion layer and other five types [6]. Catalysts, proton exchange membranes and bipolar plates are the key factors leading to the high cost of fuel cells.

Platinum-based catalysts are used in fuel cells, and the greater the power of the cell, the more platinum is needed. According to the Galaxy Securities report, Toyota's hydrogen fuel cell SUV model released in 2014 consumes 100g platinum per car, and the cost of this raw material alone is more than 20,000 yuan [7].

Proton exchange membrane, which is equivalent to the electrolyte of battery, is a kind of semi-permeable membrane which can conduct protons and isolate hydrogen and oxygen. At present, the mainstream proton exchange membrane is synthesized with perfluorinated polymer materials, which have good stability and long service life, but it is difficult to produce and the price is not cheap.

The 2022 research report of AVIC Securities shows that the price of DuPont proton exchange membrane with 20cm*20cm (0.04m2) specification is 899 yuan [8]. Generally speaking, the production of each hydrogen fuel cell vehicle requires at least 20 square meters of proton exchange membrane, about 225000 yuan [9].

As for the bipolar plate, the function of this part is to isolate the anode and cathode gas, mostly using non-porous graphite plate, because its production requires precision processing, the processing cost of a bipolar plate of 500 square centimeters is not less than US $100 [9]. The market price of graphite bipolar plates used in hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles is about 150 yuan, while a commercial vehicle with a power of 75 kilowatts needs 300 sets of bipolar plates, the cost is as high as 45000 yuan [10].

In addition, the special drive motor and liquid hydrogen storage tank for fuel cell vehicles also increase the cost of fuel cell vehicles.

Although cost does limit the development of fuel cells, it does not kill them with a brick. After all, the energy industry was a big recipient of subsidies in the early days, and lithium-battery electric cars were even more dependent on subsidies.

According to the calculation of Galaxy Securities, if the fuel cell wants to surpass the internal combustion engine in the performance-to-price ratio, it must reduce the cost to at least 330RMB / kW [7].

But from 5000 yuan / kW to 330yuan / kW is equivalent to reducing the cost to the original 1max 15, is this realistic?

The commercialization of fuel cells if they can't afford it began at the end of the last century.

In 1998, a London car company called Zero Emission vehicle (ZEVCO) built a fuel cell taxi with a power of 5kW [11].

In an era when only spaceships could afford fuel cells, ZEVCO creatively used cobalt catalysts instead of platinum to reduce costs. However, because its performance is not as good as that of platinum catalyst, ZEVCO failed to start the boom era of fuel cell vehicles, but became more and more vulnerable to the rapid development of fuel-fueled vehicles. Finally, the company announced its dissolution in 2009.

ZEVCO failed to get off to a good start, but the industry's research and development of fuel cell technology has not stopped.

As mentioned earlier, catalysts, proton exchange membranes and bipolar plates are the bulk of the cost of fuel cells, and the key to cost reduction is here.

Catalysts for fuel cells there are three types of catalysts: platinum catalysts, low platinum catalysts and non-platinum catalysts.

At first, fuel cells used platinum catalysts. Platinum is an excellent hydrogen absorbing material, which can adsorb and promote the dissociation of hydrogen molecules. Because of its high catalytic activity, it is still the preferred catalyst for commercial fuel cells.

It is easy to use, but the price is too high. Platinum since 2022, the price of spot platinum fluctuates between 195 yuan and 252 yuan / g [13].

The reserves are too small. According to the data of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in 2019, the world's proven platinum reserves are 69000 tons, and the amount of exploitation is rare, which is only 181,204tons / year in the past 10 years.

In addition, the service life of platinum-based catalysts is not long. Platinum will dissolve elements in the process of charge and discharge, and its nanoparticles will reunite and lose in the electrolytic system, and the residual carbon monoxide in hydrogen fuel will also inactivate platinum and accelerate the aging of fuel cells. virtually increases the cost of fuel cell use.

There are two ways to reduce the cost of catalysts-reducing the amount of platinum or replacing them with other materials, that is, low-platinum catalysts and non-platinum catalysts mentioned above.

Low platinum catalyst is to reduce the amount of platinum by changing the structure of the catalyst, which mainly has two research directions: core-shell structure and nanostructure. Among them, the former generally uses lower-cost materials as the "core" of catalytic materials to play an auxiliary role, wrapping platinum as a "shell" metal to reduce the amount of platinum, while the latter combines transition metals with platinum to form binary or multicomponent alloys to improve the specific surface area and surface activity of platinum [15].

According to the research report of Guorong Securities in 2022, the platinum loading of domestic low-platinum catalyst has been reduced to 0.3g / kW, but there is still a big gap compared with 0.06g / kW overseas.

Non-platinum catalysts have three research directions, namely, palladium-based catalysts, non-precious metal catalysts and non-metal catalysts, each of which has its own advantages and disadvantages, but it is difficult to replace platinum-based catalysts in commercial scenarios at this stage.

Advantages and disadvantages of three ▲ catalysts

Tabulation | hard technology, source of fruit shell | Oriental Securities [16]

Among them, the transition metal-nitrogen-carbon compound catalyst has many advantages and the prospect is relatively better. Academia is also trying to improve, reduce costs and increase efficiency.

In 2022, Emile Chamot (É mileM. Chamot) team found that the catalytic efficiency of carbon-supported cobalt nitride (Co3N / C) catalyst is almost the same as that of platinum, but the cost is only 1ppm 475.It is expected to replace platinum-based catalyst for commercial use in the future [17].

According to the different fluorine content, proton exchange membranes are also divided into perfluorosulfonic acid membranes (perfluorinated proton exchange membranes), partially fluorinated polymer membranes, new non-fluoropolymer membranes and composite membranes.

Among them, perfluorosulfonic acid membrane has relatively higher stability and longer service life, so it has become the mainstream material of proton exchange membrane. However, the technological process of the material is complex, and the technical barriers to development and production are extremely high, so the price is also very expensive.

An important raw material for the production of proton exchange membrane is perfluorosulfonic acid resin. DuPont of the United States, Solway of Belgium and Asahi Kasei of Japan monopolize more than 90% of the production capacity of perfluorosulfonic acid resin, and China's dependence on the import of this raw material is as high as 99% [8].

In China, only Shandong Dongyue and Jiangsu Kerun can produce perfluorosulfonic acid resin. Although the production capacity is not high, new production lines have been planned. In recent years, with the change of technology, the life of proton exchange membranes produced in Dongyue, Shandong Province has increased from 800 hours in 2014 to 6000 hours now [18].

AVIC Securities predicts that the cost of proton exchange membrane will continue to decrease in the next 30 years, from 1200 yuan per square meter in 2020 to 250 yuan per square meter in 2050 [8].

Graphite bipolar plate has good corrosion resistance and electrical conductivity, but it is not irreplaceable. Bipolar plates of metals and composites may be a better choice.

In foreign countries, the heavy and fragile graphite bipolar plate has been replaced by surface modified multi-coating structure metal bipolar plate. In China, the metal bipolar plate jointly developed by Zhizhen New Energy and Shanghai Jiaotong University is in the stage of trial production, but the cost is about 20 times that of foreign countries [19].

In addition, the composite bipolar plate also has advantages in cost and performance.

In a word, with the continuous iteration of material technology, the cost of fuel cell has decreased rapidly in recent years. According to Guojin Securities, after large-scale production, the cost of fuel cell vehicles will be reduced by 60%, and will continue to decline with the process of localization in the future [19]. This makes car companies once again excited about fuel cells--

In April 2022, Hyundai NEXO won the Beijing New Energy license and became the first hydrogen fuel cell vehicle in China.

In the same month, Changan released the Deep Blue C385, including the hydrogen fuel cell version.

In June, it was revealed that Toyota would produce its second hydrogen fuel cell vehicle after the Mirai in 2023.

The optimism of car companies has also brought opportunities for domestic start-ups.

According to the data of scientists taking "technology" to the sea, fuel cell technology is mainly in the hands of foreign large manufacturers and central enterprises in 2018, while domestic mainstream fuel cell manufacturers such as Xiong Taoxiong, Xinyuan Power and Yihuatong, orders often come from government procurement [20].

In terms of patents, wisdom bud data show that global fuel cell-related patents are almost monopolized by the United States, Japan and South Korea. Among the top 20 applicants for patent applications, only one Chinese institution is the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. In addition, the top 50 applicants are Tsinghua University, South China University of Technology and Zhejiang University.

▲ global fuel cell related patent applicant Top20

Hard science and technology drawing of fruit shell | Source: wisdom bud

Fortunately, university scientists with their own patents have gone to sea one after another, bringing new changes to the industry.

In 2016, hydrogen Technology, founded by Zhou Hongbo, a doctor from Zhejiang University, focuses on the research and development of fuel cell engines, and the products are now in commercial operation in Hubei, Guangdong, Sichuan, Shanxi and other places. Fu Yu, founder of Ji hydrogen Energy, graduated from Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Ji hydrogen Energy is now one of the two companies capable of mass production of metal bipolar plates in China.

On the contrary, Western countries are becoming more calm about fuel cells.

A business analysis by Deloitte in 2022 mentioned that investment in hydrogen fuel cells is shifting from Europe and the United States to Asia [21].

According to relevant data, there have been 46 financing incidents in the global fuel cell industry since 2021. In addition, the amount of single financing in foreign countries is the highest in the round of FirstElement Fuel,D of American companies, which is 105 million US dollars. On the other hand, the unpotential Energy, a Chinese company that was founded less than three years ago, received more than 900 million yuan in round A financing led by State Investment Investment and PICC Capital.

Angel round financing tens of millions of yuan, round A financing hundreds of millions of yuan, which is not uncommon in the domestic fuel cell industry.

Behind the boom in investment and financing, China's share of the global hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market is also rising, with 10% of the world's fuel cell vehicles using Chinese-made stacks [22].

Does this mean that fuel cells have been abandoned by developed countries?

Dead or alive, it's too early to say it's too early to give up.

According to the statistics of overseas electric vehicle media InsideEVs, fuel cell vehicle sales rebounded after two consecutive years of decline in 2021, reaching an all-time high of 3341 units per year.

Although the base is very low, the prospect is very good.

Analysts ResearchAndMarkets report shows that now is the time to expand the fuel cell market. In the next five years, the US fuel cell vehicle market will grow by 19.14% CAGR, reaching US $322 million by 2027 [24].

Domestically, the medium-and long-term Plan for the Development of hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035) jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration mentions that the number of fuel cell vehicles should be about 50,000 by 2025. By 2030, hydrogen energy will be a strong support for the carbon peak [25].

China is quite optimistic about the future of fuel cells.

In addition, fuel cell also has a good application prospect in special vehicles. On June 17, FAW liberated 300 hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks. Two days later, Volvo also announced the test of the world's first hydrogen fuel cell articulated truck.

At the end of 2018, Liu Minghui, former vice president of FAW Group Technology Research Institute and vice president of Xiaopeng Automobile, said publicly that "fuel cells will compete with power cells before and after 2025." [26]

The fuel cell, which is nearly 100 years old, is only one foot short of the intersection of fate, and it is probably too early to make a final conclusion on it.

Referenc

Pl ö tz, P. Hydrogen technology is unlikely to play a major role in sustainable road transport. Nat Electron 5, 8-10 (2022). Https://doi.org/10.1038/s41928-021-00706-6

[2] Grove's gaseous voltaic battery 2020.6.5 https://www.chemistryworld.com/opinion/groves-gaseous-voltaic-battery/4011756.article

[3] Alkali Fuel Cells https://americanhistory.si.edu/fuelcells/alk/alkmain.htm

[4] LITHIUM ION BATTERY CELL PRICES FALL TO $110/KWH, BUT RAW MATERIAL RISK LOOMS LARGE 2020.12.1 https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/membership/lithium-ion-battery-cell-prices-fall-to-110-kwh-but-raw-material-risk-looms-large-2/

[5] Ouyang Minggao: fuel cell system cost will be reduced by 80% in the next ten years. 2021.7.9 https://www.caixin.com/ 2021-07-09/101738033.html

[6] to achieve zero carbon, the industrial blueprint is becoming clearer-- hydrogen fuel cell industry depth report 2022.4.11 https://pdf.dfcfw.com/ pdf / H3_AP202204131558956078_1.pdf?1649842096000.pdf

[7] in-depth study on the whole industry chain of fuel cell vehicles: policy is the sail, http://pg.jrj.com.cn/ acc / Res / CN_RES / INDUS / 2016-5-27 / a180c812-ac17-4546-9b0e-23f687a15f70.pdf

[8] depth of hydrogen energy new materials industry: policy-guided demand burst, and the future is expected to be 2022.3.23 https://pdf.dfcfw.com/ pdf / H3_AP202203241554746021_1.pdf?1648157953000.pdf

[9] New energy vehicle industry: industrialization is approaching, fuel cell era will reach 20 July 2016 http://qccdata.qichacha.com/ ReportData / PDF / e3b46a6ceebc8831a1b8abe53dcc1849.pdf

[10] to overcome the key pain point of hydrogen fuel cell industrialization 2022.2.19 https://www.dailyqd.com/ 3G / html / 2022-02 Universe 19 / content_333387.htm

[11] ZeTek Efforts on Fuel Cell London Cabs Reach Back to 1998 2010.8.8 https://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/08/zetek-201000808.html

[12] ZETEK POWER PLC https://www.companieslondon.com/uk/03681503/zetek-power-plc

[13] https://www.sge.com.cn/ sjzx / mrhqsj / 10003147 on Shanghai Gold Exchange

[14] 2017 Minerals Yearbook https://pubs.usgs.gov/myb/vol1/2017/myb1-2017-copper.pdf

[15] "Science": a major breakthrough in platinum nano-catalyst research: 2016.11.18 https://news.sciencenet.cn/ htmlnews / 2016/11/361323.shtm

[16] the localization of fuel cell materials for spring breeze is waiting for a breakthrough-- A series of reports on fuel cell materials (1) http://www.invest-data.com/ eWebEditor / uploadfile / 2018040919235187049515.pdf on July 25, 2016

[17] Nonprecious transition metal nitrides as efficient oxygen reduction electrocatalysts for alkaline fuel cells 2022.2.2 https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/sciadv.abj1584?cookieSet=1

[18] there is still a gap of at least 5 years from 15 microns to 8 microns. 2019.8.22 https://www.gg-lb.com/ asdisp2--38602-.html

[19] cost reduction path: localization, economies of scale and technological progress-- PEMFC of fuel cell series research PEMFC November 10, 2016 http://www.invest-data.com/ eWebEditor / uploadfile / 2018040410505414016446.pdf

[20] inventory of domestic mainstream fuel cell manufacturers: all doing government business 2018.12.26 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/ s / Du3vSa0iyVrWXniCernIow

[21] Venture capital is betting on hydrogen to be the surprise of the decade https://www2.deloitte.com/nl/nl/pages/energy-resources-industrials/articles/venture-capital-betting-on-hydrogen.html

[22] China has discreetly taken 10 per cent of the world's market for hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles. Here's a look at the company leading the charge 2022.5.28 https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3179447/china-has-discreetly-taken-10-cent-worlds-market-hydrogen

[23] US: Hydrogen Fuel Cell Car Sales Rebounded In 2021 2022.2.5 https://insideevs.com/news/565185/us-hydrogen-car-sales-2021/

[24] United States Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Markets, 2022-2027 by Technology, Vehicle Type, Competitive Analysis and the Impact of Covid-19 with Ansoff Analysis-ResearchAndMarkets.com 2022.6.13 https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220613005551/en/United-States-Hydrogen-Fuel-Cell-Vehicle-Markets-2022-2027-by-Technology-Vehicle-Type-Competitive-Analysis-and-the-Impact-of-Covid-19-with-Ansoff-Analysis---ResearchAndMarkets.com

[25] "medium-and long-term Plan for the Development of hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)" https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/ xxgk / zcfb / ghwb / 202203 / P020220323314396580505.pdf

[26] Xiao Peng and Liu Minghui: fuel cells will compete for Power Lithium Battery 2018.12.20 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/ s / NLjmMUcB_pLJ4vZVSeNOiA in 2025

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: fruit Shell hard Technology (ID:guokr233), author: Yang Jingyi Editor: Li Tuo

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