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It may not be easy for you to find a reason to change your phone this year, but manufacturers don't think so. Since the beginning of this week, Huawei Mate 50 and Apple iPhone 14 series have been released one after another, and the two have one common selling point: they can be directly connected to satellites.

Across the two major industries of smart phones and satellite Internet, "mobile phone directly connected to satellite" has also become the coolest technology concept in 2022.

Can the mobile phone be directly connected to the satellite? Does it work? How do I use it? What are the market prospects? This article takes you to pay attention to related technical and industrial issues.

Mobile phone directly connected satellite (satellite-to-cellular service) is not a new concept. In 2021, there were rumors that Apple's iPhone 13 series would add related features (of course not later). With the mobile phone release season approaching in September this year, there have been a number of related news in the industry--

On August 17, MediaTek used its own 5G NTN mobile chip to work with Roeder and Rohde & Schwarz to complete a 5G mobile phone directly connected to a satellite in a laboratory environment using the latter's Leo satellite channel simulator. [1]

On August 25, Musk's star chain company Starlink partnered with T-Mobile to announce the provision of SMS services to the United States through cellular networks by the end of 2023. [2]

On August 26, ZTE cooperated with China Mobile Research Institute to achieve outfield verification of operator 5G NTN (non-terrestrial network) and support the access of smartphones and IoT terminals to high-orbit satellites. [3]

But then comes the question: how did satellites that used to be relayed or connected by ground stations / special equipment be directly connected to mobile phones? What is the most important application scenario after mobile phone-satellite direct connection? Can users happily browse short videos and listen to music? What kind of satellites do we have to choose from?

The "one small step" of smart phone manufacturers first takes a look at Huawei's mobile phone directly connected to satellite technology. According to Huawei's official information, its new Mate 50 can send "short messages" (but does not support reception) through Huawei's "Changlian App" to Beidou satellite without a mobile network.

Huawei's technology may stem from the "Mobile Beidou short message Communication RF Baseband Integrated Chip" released on July 30 this year. The chip was developed by China Arms Industry Corporation in conjunction with China Mobile, China Electronics and domestic mobile phone manufacturers. Beidou officials said that the characteristics of the chip are:

The "one double network" design of Volkswagen mobile phones with "no card change, no number change and no additional peripherals" has realized the satellite communication capability of Volkswagen smart phones for the first time in the world, and public users in the Asia-Pacific region will enjoy Beidou No. 3 short message communication service. [4]

Market announcement news shows that the short message SoC chip has entered the stage of mass production, designed and developed by Chongqing Southwest Integrated Circuit Design Co., Ltd., and Liyang chip provides exclusive wafer level (CP) testing services for the chip. [5]

However, when directly connected to satellites, mobile phones equipped with the chip, such as Mate 50, are mainly used for exploration and rescue positioning rather than gossip. after all, the main function of Beidou system is positioning and navigation, not communication.

The iPhone 14 series features also focus on security: in the case of no ground mobile signal and no high shelter, users can bring their own Find App through Apple, choose the option (yes, in order to compress the size of the information file, the user cannot edit the text), connect directly to the satellite in 15 seconds to a few minutes, and then go back to the ground base station and relay station, so that the ground voice call the emergency center to receive the message.

Apple did not disclose the partners at the press conference or on its website page, but aerospace website SpaceExplored confirmed that the service is supported by Globalstar's 24 low-orbit communications satellites [6]. According to documents submitted by Global Star to SEC, the company plans to devote 85% of its current and future network capacity to Find services that support Apple. [7]

All in all, by September 2022, the directly connected satellite function of mass consumer-grade smartphones is only a small step forward, and whether we can take another big step forward depends on achieving the following goals:

Directly connected satellite, high-speed and stable all-weather access to achieve two-way high-throughput communication

Form a stable and large-scale business model between smart phones and satellite service providers

Similar to ground mobile communication service providers, there are different communication satellite constellations to choose from.

But at present, there are a large number of technical problems to be solved in order to achieve the above sci-fi scenarios.

The beautiful but difficult "big step" to connect the mobile phone directly to the satellite has three main technical routes (see table below), each of which has its own difficulties and four key problems:

First, the problem of frequency band. The first is what frequency band to use. At this stage, the Ku band has been basically carved up, although the Ka band has Leo constellation planning, but there is no actual satellite application, Q / V band application potential is being developed, and smart phones do not support communication satellite band for the time being, in this case, either re-customize the mobile phone (including chip, baseband, RF, software, etc.), or let the satellite use part of the 5G band (such as T-mobile). [8] the second is how to use it. The satellite dedicated frequency band and protocol are different from the terrestrial cellular frequency band. At present, it is difficult to use Ku, Ka and Q / V bands for satellite directly connected mobile phones. Even if the "two networks in one" mode is used, there will be cross interference in communication with 4G and 5G mobile phones, and even need to modify the mobile phone 4G / 5G standard. [9]

Second, the problem of balancing costs. No matter which technological route is adopted, the balance of costs between satellites and mobile phones should be considered. the price of mobile phones is too high for consumers to afford; they can also leave the problem to the satellite. For example, Lin Baojun, chief designer of the Beidou-3 system, said in an interview with the media that whether the mobile phone can be directly connected to the satellite mainly depends on the satellite. "if the satellite is very powerful and powerful, then the mobile phone can receive satellite signals" [10]. But it will also lead to large power consumption, weight and antenna size of the satellite. [9] Space launch is very sensitive to load weight, and the increase of satellite weight means an increase in launch cost.

Third, the antenna problem. At present, mobile phones are built-in antennas, it is not difficult to adjust the transmission power when the satellite sends signals to the mobile phone, but it is not only difficult to achieve, but also has strict restrictions on the transmission power of the mobile phone, and the lack of uplink speed is a fatal dead point. [11]

Fourth, the docking of mobile phones and satellites. According to the China Electronic News, the excessive speed of satellite movement and the frequency and phase changes of radio signals caused by Doppler effect will be difficult. [12]

Three implementation forms of ▲ Mobile phone directly connected to Satellite

Tabulation? fruit shell hard science and technology, reference materials (literature [9]

When you take a high-speed railway in an area with sparse signal towers, the mobile phone network is always intermittent, because people move too fast with the high-speed railway, and there are too few signal towers; similarly, the density of communication satellites has to be as many as signal towers. the mobile phone is directly connected to the satellite to have a good experience.

But to what extent is the global communications satellite constellation (Satellite Constellation) built?

The bandwidth of video communication depends on the transmission frequency. The higher the signal frequency is, the faster the data transmission rate is. However, under the premise of a given transmission power, the higher the signal frequency, the smaller the transmission distance. Therefore, most of the satellites with communication function, especially high-throughput communication function, are low-orbit satellites (orbital altitude 200km~2000km).

Construction status of ▲ large-scale LEO Communication Satellite Constellation

Tabulation (fruit shell hard science and technology)

Because of the low power requirement, simple launch mode and low investment cost, Leo small satellite constellation is the mainstream of satellite communication, such as OneWeb and Starlink (first generation). However, the power of small satellites is limited, and users must rely on special ground receiving equipment to use the satellite Internet of these companies.

The other is represented by AST SpaceMobile, Lynk, Global Star and Starlink (second generation). These constellations have more satellite antennas and power, allowing mobile phones to connect directly to the satellite Internet, but the progress is relatively slow.

Charles Miller (Charles Miller), co-founder and CEO of Lynk, which deployed its sixth satellite in April, said it was expected to be commercialized later in 2022, when it would offer "the world's first truly mobile direct-connected satellite service" to the world. [13]

Can satellites in higher orbits communicate? You can, too.

For example, Beidou satellite is a typical mid-orbit earth satellite (MEO), but the main function of Beidou satellite is navigation, and the communication function is much simpler.

Short message is a primary satellite communication service provided by Beidou system. Terminals with specific chips can send and receive text, voice or smaller pictures in both directions through Beidou satellite. This service is mostly used for emergency relief, ocean communications and other scenarios that can not be covered by ground base stations.

Until July 31, 2020, the Beidou 3 system was officially launched to improve the efficiency and stability of the short message service, improve the message length, service capacity and coverage, while reducing the terminal transmission power. [14]

Mid-orbit satellites are 2000km~35786km from sea level, which are mainly used to build large navigation system satellite constellations. Global large navigation systems such as GPS, Beidou, Gronas and Galileo are all in medium orbit.

At present, O3b is the only medium orbit communication operator, which mainly provides broadband access services for all kinds of operators or group customers with limited terrestrial network access, but O3b does not provide direct satellite connection to the Internet. Users still have to use the gateway stations on the ground.

Thuraya, which is on a par with Iridium, is the radio and television transmission line satellite, which is located in a higher geosynchronous orbit (GEO, 35786km above sea level, with a radius of 42164 km from the center of the earth).

A list of ▲ 's typical MEO and GEO constellations

Tabulation (fruit shell hard science and technology)

However, the medium-and high-orbit satellite is far from the ground, so the communication bandwidth is not high and the transmission delay is large, so it is difficult to be used in directly connected consumer-grade smartphones.

Going back to the beginning-- two mobile phones that can be directly connected to satellites, it is indeed a technological breakthrough, but it is even more difficult to go further.

Starlink, the fastest-built Leo constellation, will not be able to provide text transfer (Text messaging) testing in specific areas until the end of 2023, and Starlink and T-Mobile did not provide a specific timetable for when voice and data transmission functions will be available.

Specific to China, at present, large-scale Leo satellite communication constellation, China Star Network has no first satellite into orbit, private enterprises, Galaxy Aerospace currently has only seven in orbit. At present, the Telegraph transmission can be realized through the mid-orbit Beidou, which can make up for the deficiency of the Leo communication satellite constellation. As for the further functions, we still need to wait.

In short, it is still a long way for earthlings to make phone calls, post moments and even browse short videos through the direct connection of mobile phones to satellites. In this case, the speculation in domestic and foreign markets is quite irrational.

To make a breakthrough, do not hype that "mobile phone with satellite" is of course a sexy and eye-catching concept, but we should examine its commercial potential in a rational manner, rather than being misled by the temporary market heat.

At present, the estimation of the market scale of satellite Internet is quite confusing, and the results given by different caliber and different institutions are very different.

Morgan Stanley is the most optimistic, predicting that the global satellite Internet market is expected to reach $45.426 billion by 2030 [15]. But some of the more conservative estimates are only $17.431 billion to $18.59 billion, a wide gap [16] [17]. For a more cautious short-term forecast, the size of the market is expected to reach $6 billion to $8.1 billion by 2026, and according to its compound annual growth rate, there is a significant gap between 2030 and the above forecast [18] [19].

The forecasts of the American Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) are the most exaggerated. According to SIA data, the market size of China's satellite Internet industry will reach 29.248 billion yuan in 2021, and it is expected to reach 44.692 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 11% in 2021 and 2025. This figure is even higher than the size of the global market given by some institutions in the same year.

This difference comes from the different definition of "satellite Internet" and which value chain links are included in the statistics. Some statistics may only calculate the mobile phone directly connected to the satellite, that is, the mobile Internet scenario, while others count the home market. The traditional satellite Internet industry chain includes satellite manufacturing, satellite launch, ground communication infrastructure construction, satellite communication network operation, terminal applications, etc.-but this obviously does not mean that the output value of all links can be incorporated into the satellite Internet industry.

The current vague definition and confusion of the caliber of satellite Internet is a manifestation of the immaturity of the industry. A large number of controversial income and output are included in the statistics, and some less related companies are also popular with capital, which is evident in the secondary market.

As Apple announced that the phone was directly connected to the satellite function, partner Global Star's shares on the American stock exchange were forced to stop trading, rising more than 36% at one point after the launch, but closed down 1.44%.

Stock price trend of Global Star before and after ▲ Apple launch | Source: snowball

In terms of A shares, the first ones to be stimulated by the news are mostly satellite navigation concept stocks, and they are not even directly related to the satellite Internet, among which those with greater fluctuations have received a letter of concern from the exchange. it is required to explain the announcement of changes suspected of "rubbing hot spots".

This is typical overheating.

In the previous article, we explained the complex technical problems faced by the current satellite communication when it turns to a more conventional and extensive basic application scenario. Obviously, in the absence of sufficiently powerful satellites, "satellite Internet" can only be regarded as a supplementary route at best, and it is impossible to replace networks based on base stations and optical fibers. rashly regard the entire network service market directly as a "cake" available to the satellite Internet industry, which is too bold.

The demand for satellite Internet comes from remote areas where traditional network coverage is difficult to reach. This is manifested overseas in underdeveloped areas that are unable to carry out infrastructure construction, or in rural areas where developed countries do not have optical fiber laying. However, as far as the domestic market is concerned, there are some differences in population distribution and infrastructure projects between China and foreign countries, and the number of ordinary residents who rely on satellite rather than optical fiber access to the Internet is relatively limited, which reduces the demand for satellite Internet to a certain extent. the same cannot be analyzed by overseas institutions.

Another key question is what users can do with mobile phones that can be directly connected to satellites.

At present, satellite communication can not meet the basic needs of general mobile Internet users, and in most cases it can only support the function of sending and receiving short messages. And the so-called "covering the wilderness" is not a universal user demand. The current satellite mobile communication is mainly used in forest fire prevention, outdoor exploration, disaster relief, ocean fishing and other special fields, the application scene is very special, and in these scenarios often have special needs for the reliability of the equipment itself, ordinary smart phones can not meet the reliability. It is too early for the average user to buy a mobile phone with a direct satellite connection, except in rare cases, a feature that may never be used, and it is too early to think that this represents a thriving market.

Generally speaking, at this stage, the mobile phone directly connected satellite does not have an extremely strong market demand, and the related technology can not meet the basic needs of users.

We can say that "satellite Internet" is an important supplement to the traditional network service, and it is of great strategic significance to the tradition and to the country in the future. However, it is suspected of hype that it will form a large-scale replacement for the existing network service coverage model, which undoubtedly exaggerates its actual function and commercial potential.

Referenc

[1] Digital era: MediaTek 5G technology has another new milestone! The new chip allows mobile phones to be connected to the satellite network https://www.bnext.com.tw/ article / 71268 / meditek-satellite-5g-communication?

[2] SpaceX official website: SpaceX Invites World's Carriers to Collaborate-No More Cell Phone Dead Zones https://www.spacex.com/ updates/#direct2cell

[3] Future Mobile Communications Forum: the release of the outfield verification results of the world's first operator 5G NTN technology! Https://mp.weixin.qq.com/ s/7_Gn7wRT8EgkCNgaklAY_g

[4] China Beidou Satellite Navigation system: blockbuster | Global initiative! The results of Beidou No. 3 short message communication service have been officially released https://mp.weixin.qq.com/ s / HOO9XSNu1YBhksG_Wi7jFw

[5] Liyang Chip Bulletin http://static.cninfo.com.cn/ finalpage / 2022-09-06/1214541079.PDF

[6] SpaceExplored:iPhone 14 Emergency SOS via satellite feature to be powered by Globalstar https://spaceexplored.com/2022/09/07/iphone-14-emergency-sos-via-satellite/

[7] Global star sec file https://www.sec.gov/ ix?doc=/Archives/ edgar / data / 0001366868 / 0001366822000059 / gsat-20220907.htm

[8] Feng Li, Hang Yu, Rui Ding, Ningyuan Wang, Yuqi Wang, Zhicheng Zhou. Development Strategy of Space Internet Constellation System in China. Strategic Study of Chinese Academy of Engineering, 2021, 23 (4): 137 Murray 144 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2021.04.016

[9] Space-based communication: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/ s / Zyf097UhB_bm-cJGE3jTug introduction to satellite directly connected mobile phone technology

[10] first Finance and Economics: is the era of mobile phone directly connected to satellite coming? Technological subversion or gimmick https://www.yicai.com/ news / 101528084.html

[11] fresh jujube classroom: mobile phone + satellite, how difficult is it? Https://mp.weixin.qq.com/ s / NzbuubK4Y_lbvfXvU1cEZA

[12] China Electronic News: will smart phones realize satellite communication? It may be too early to https://mp.weixin.qq.com/ s / LUJisBVKypUunW9YCPmR_Q

[13] Telecoms:Lynk launches' first commercial-ready cell-tower-in-space' https://telecoms.com/514594/lynk-launches-first-commercial-ready-cell-tower-in-space/

[14] Xinhua News Agency: the short message communication service of Beidou No. 3 has entered the stage of public application, http://www.news.cn/ 2022-07 + 30 / c_1128877807.htm.

[15] Zheshang Securities: satellite communication is of great significance. China's "star chain" will rise gradually, 2022.07.22.

[16] Acumen:RSatellite Internet Market Size-Global Industry, Share, Analysis, Trends and Forecast 2022-2030 https://www.acumenresearchandconsulting.com/satellite-internet-market 2022.09

[17] Allied Market Research:Satellite Internet Market by Band Type (C-band, X-band, L-band, K-band, and Others) and End User (Commercial Users and Individual): Global Opportunity Analysis and Industry Forecast, 2020-2030, 2021.07 https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/satellite-internet-market-A12472

[18] Technavio Research:Satellite Internet Market Size to Grow by USD 2.70 billion due to Growth In The Number Of IoT Devices, 2022.09.05 https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/satellite-internet-market-size-to-grow-by-usd-2-70-billion-due-to-growth-in-the-number-of-iot-devices---17-000-technavio-reports-301617318.html

[19] The Business Research Company:Satellite Internet Global Market Report 2022-By Product (Two-Way Satellite-Only Communication, One-Way Receive, One-Way Broadcast), By Band Type (C-Band, X-Band, L-Band, K-Band), By End-User (Commercial, Residential, Military, Industrial)-Market Size, Trends, And Global Forecast 2022-2026, 2022.04 https://www.thebusinessresearchcompany.com/faqs/5817

[20] China Business Industrial Research Institute: [new track topic] focus on Satellite Internet New track Satellite Internet Industry Prospect Analysis, 2022.08.29 https://www.askci.com/ news / chanye / 20220829/1702561971710_2.shtml

This article comes from the official account of Wechat: fruit Shell hard Technology (ID:Guokr233), written by Chen Xiaoyu, Fu Bin, Yang Jingyi and Li Tuo.

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