Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Recently, Gartner released "2022 China ICT Technology maturity Curve", which caused hot discussion in the industry. The curve describes the whole process of technology from birth to maturity, and marks many existing technologies on it according to the development stage, which predicts the development of technology and provides reference for the development of the industry. it has become a barometer of the rise and fall of technology. So, which audience does the curve apply to? Has the positioning of this year's curve changed compared with the past? What are the principles of Gartner selection technology? Recently, an all-media reporter from Communications World interviewed Ji Xinsu, vice president of Gartner research.

The "cliff" of the curve and the vanishing technology maturity curve include five stages: technology germination period, expected expansion period, foam burst trough period, steady climbing recovery period and production maturity stage. At first, no one knows about a certain technology, and then it is proved by marketing that it can solve the problem, arouse market reaction and propel the technology to a high point. In the process, challenges gradually emerge, because the existing capacity deficiency is not enough to support the future vision, so the technology falls to a low level. After returning to rationality, the market accepts the advantages and disadvantages of technology, finds valuable application scenarios, and promotes the maturity of technology. Correspondingly, technology landing includes five processes: initial technological innovation, early use, early large-scale deployment, late large-scale deployment, and overall industry landing.

Ji Xinsu stressed that not all technologies can go through a complete technological maturity curve, and more than half of the technologies cannot reach the end and will disappear in the process of passing through the "cliff." For example, the blockchain once appeared on the technology maturity curve and failed in the 2022 curve because it is still a long way from a truly mature application. In the "2022 China ICT Technology maturity Curve", meta-universe, cloud security, privacy protection, cloud native computing, edge computing, secret computing and so on are listed, among which meta-universe, privacy protection and cloud native computing all have a high degree of attention in the industry.

In addition, there are also differences in the logic of the curve between Party An and Party B. In addition to the technology maturity curve, Gartner also launched Emerging Technology (emerging Technology Curve), in which Party A pays more attention to the technology maturity curve based on the technology perspective, considering the specific process of technology maturity; Party B pays more attention to the emerging technology curve based on the perspective of the manufacturer, considering whether the technology use scene is mature, whether there are enough Party A's attention and willingness to buy, and whether it is worth investing in research and development.

In terms of the technology maturity curve itself, Party A pays more attention to the maturity of the technology (that is, the gray part in the following figure), because there are risks in the new technology, Party A needs to reduce the uncertainty, and many technologies can not complete the technology maturity curve. In addition to the aforementioned blockchain, OpenStack was once considered as the implementation standard for private clouds, but there are a lot of problems in the landing process, which has been abandoned by many well-known enterprises and no longer appears in this year's technology maturity curve. Relatively speaking, Party B is more willing to innovate and make mistakes, especially some start-ups, with the blessing of investment institutions, pay more attention to the research and development of new technologies and scene innovation (that is, the blue part of the picture).

From the head of the data center to the head of IT, Ji Xinsu said that in 2022 Gartner adjusted the positioning of the technology maturity curve according to market changes: from the former head of data center technology to the head of CIO (head of the entire IT department). Accordingly, Gartner constructs the narrative thread from the perspective of CIO, from the advanced nature of technology to the business value provided by IT, and how to use technology to improve business capabilities.

Based on the above positioning transformation, Gartner constructed four "narrative main lines" of the technology maturity curve in 2022 to make a good choice of technology.

First, digital transformation / digital business. In the face of economic uncertainty, although users still insist on digital business investment, but their attitude has become cautious and short-term, from "I am willing to try and mistake new technology" to "whether technology has direct value to my business". If it can be effective in the short term, then users are willing to invest; if only to verify the reliability of the business, then the willingness to invest will be very low.

Second, Composable Architecture (assemblable architecture). Today, the speed of business iteration is accelerating, and the past single architecture has been unable to match the changes in requirements. However, many traditional architectures and applications cannot be switched quickly, so it is necessary to use the concept of both "agility" and "stability" to slowly map it. The only architecture that can undertake this task is the assemblable architecture, which is praised by Gartner because of its unique role, and has seen many innovative enterprises have landed cases.

Third, security and privacy protection. In recent years, with the increasing attention of the industry to data security, CIO pays more attention to security and privacy.

Fourth, the modernization of infrastructure and applications. Users not only need to innovate and iterate, but also need to upgrade the existing architecture to ensure stability and ensure that the existing architecture can support future business development.

Database localization trend talking about the development characteristics of China's ICT industry in 2022, Ji Xinsu said that innovation is still the main theme, while saving expenses has also become a hot topic of discussion. CIO not only innovate for the sake of innovation, but also pay more attention to increasing turnover or saving costs through innovation.

In the current strong demand for database localization, how to achieve the replacement of foreign databases has become the focus of many customers. More and more cloud manufacturers begin to provide open source databases or databases with independent intellectual property rights in China. Under the trend of Xinchuang, many database manufacturers or cloud manufacturers have adopted the logic of "one cloud, two cores". According to the survey, Chinese users prefer state-owned intellectual property databases to foreign commercial databases, which creates business scenarios and solutions with Chinese characteristics.

Gartner recommends using public cloud databases as much as possible "in line with industry requirements". Of course, it is difficult for some industries with high demand to adopt public cloud databases, and it is not advisable to act in haste; if there are no higher requirements, it is relatively easy to use public clouds on domestic databases. In addition, in the process of going to the public cloud, you need to evaluate whether the existing features can be met; you need to consider how much and how to make up for the impact of replacing the database on SLA if you cannot go to the public cloud, and which indicators of the database can be compromised in view of the fact that the open source technology still needs to be improved.

In the current "post-epidemic era", the problem of insufficient supply chain capacity occurs from time to time, and the management ability of IT suppliers is worthy of attention. Ji Xinsu suggested that users list supplier risk management tables from the perspectives of cost, supply efficiency, epidemic impact, equipment replacement complexity, and information security attacks, so as to achieve reasonable control of suppliers and advance prediction of risks. "winning the bid at the lowest price often hides the risk, paying attention not only to the price, but also to the supplier's ability to deliver later." Ji Xinsu thinks.

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