Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

CTOnews.com, September 17, according to the Global Times, Yang Yiqiang, the first commander of the long March 11 rocket, said in an exclusive interview recently, "China's commercial aerospace has ushered in the best development opportunities. It has gone from an era of basic manufacturing and product research and development to an era of application traction and market dominance, and will catch up with the level of development of the United States within 10 years."

Yang Yiqiang said that in the commercial aerospace sector, it is China and the United States that have formed a certain market size. 2015 is the first year of the commercialization of China's spaceflight. at present, China's commercial aerospace has moved from 1.0 to 2.0, and is expected to enter 3.0 within five years. We need to increase rocket capacity to 5 to 14 tons, build global satellite constellations, make rockets recyclable and reduce costs. Other data show that from 2015 to 2020, the scale of China's commercial aerospace market grew at a compound annual rate of 22.09%, which is related to China's complete independent intellectual property rights and talent hematopoiesis mechanism, as well as state support. However, judging from the economic scale of commercial aerospace and the overall enterprise valuation, the volume is still relatively small, and few enterprises really rely on rockets and satellites to make profits. At present, China's commercial aerospace enterprises as a whole are still in the "accumulation" stage.

Yang Yiqiang also said that the "spring" of China's commercial aerospace will come by 2027 at the latest. The "spring" of commercial aerospace can be judged by the following signs: first, satellite constellations are built on a large scale, and carrier rockets enter the stage of high-density launch, realizing the recovery and reuse of low-cost large liquid rockets; second, business models that belong solely to commercial aerospace, such as space tourism, can be realized. Third, navigation and positioning, navigation enhancement, low-orbit Internet and high time resolution remote sensing constellations can provide services for the public and enterprises. At present, there are three kinds of space travel. The first is to enter the space station, which has strict requirements on the physical and psychological quality of tourists; the second is to take tourists into space through dual-fuselage air transport aircraft represented by Virgin Galactic's "White Knight". But this model is less comfortable and safe; the third is the current technology is more mature suborbital travel, suitable for most people. With the improvement of the business model, China is expected to start suborbital travel in 2025, with a ticket price of about 2 million to 3 million yuan.

Yang Yiqiang also said that the commercialization of China's aerospace needs two-wheel drive-market demand and technological innovation. The direction of commercialization of aerospace is not complicated, for example, commercial rockets are essentially vehicles, and the main profit model in the future is to charge per kilogram and develop extended services such as advertising naming and cultural travel; the commercialization path of satellites is to provide stable and accurate data, such as satellite navigation, as well as the combination of remote sensing satellites with environmental monitoring and urban and rural planning. In my opinion, the key to the development of China's commercial aerospace is not rockets or satellites, but applications. The closer we get to ordinary people and end users, the higher the business benefits, we need to let commercial aerospace go deep into the lives of ordinary people.

Yang Yiqiang said that the current hot spot of investment is still rockets and satellites. But in fact, there are enough enterprises related to rockets and satellites, and the head enterprises have already appeared, and the continuous influx of capital will cause internal friction among these enterprises, "so I suggest that the capital can focus more on the upstream supply chain (such as engines, components, etc.) and downstream satellite applications (such as navigation, remote sensing, etc.). Because, without excellent supply chain products, there will be no good system integration products. "

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