Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

On the one hand, the increasingly frequent extreme weather has pushed up the electricity demand of the public, and the power grid is overwhelmed; on the other hand, environmental pressure has prompted the government to phase out fuel vehicles and natural gas, increasing future electricity demand. The California government faces a dilemma between people's livelihood and environmental protection.

▼ power limit warning

Extreme heat ravaged California at more than 5 p.m. Last Tuesday, the day before Apple's iPhone launch. I was busy editing the video I recorded in the afternoon and preparing for the next day's press conference when the phone I put aside suddenly sounded a quick and sharp alarm.

This kind of alarm is not uncommon. When children or old people get lost or kidnapped, the US police will send such warnings to the mobile phone numbers of nearby residents, asking the public to provide relevant clues to help find them. This is also known as Amber Alert (children) or Silver Alert (elderly people).

But when I picked up my phone, I found that this was a completely different alarm. "now please save energy and protect public health and safety. Extreme temperatures are exhausting the California power grid. Unless you take action, there may be a power outage. As long as health permits, turn off or reduce unnecessary electricity use until 9 p.m." This kind of power-saving warning, also known as Flex Alert, is the first time it has been used in Silicon Valley.

Last Tuesday, the temperature in South Bay reached 43 degrees, the highest in Silicon Valley. When I went to Apple headquarters to shoot a video in the afternoon, it was like walking into a hot and dry desert when I got out of the car. The hot sun shone on my head, and it was not long before I could feel the burning feeling from my scalp.

Not only Silicon Valley, but from Los Angeles to Sacramento, California was shrouded in extreme heat last week, with at least a dozen cities setting record temperatures. Last Tuesday, temperatures reached 44.4C in Los Angeles and 46.7C in Sacramento, California, breaking the record high set in 1925. The temperature in Ukiah, a small town in northern California, reached 47.2 degrees.

Under the influence of extreme heat, California has entered the peak season of wildfire ahead of time. There are 14 large-scale wildfires still burning, and more than 4000 firefighters are trying their best to put out the fires, while new fires continue to break out every day, with 45 new fires reported across the state on Sunday alone. There is no denying that California is increasingly hit by extreme weather, as in many parts of the world.

Extreme high temperature of ▲ brings hill fire to break out

Pleading for people to limit the use of electricity has also pushed up residential demand for electricity, overburdening California's already weak power system. California Governor Gavin Newsom last week declared a state of emergency in California, requiring power companies to increase power supply, while pleading for people to reduce electricity demand and avoid power cuts in August 2020.

The warning comes a day after several cities in California, including San Jose in Silicon Valley, were forced to lose power for hours at temperatures of 40 degrees. The city of San Jose has to urgently open several community centers for citizens to use as emergency summer shelters. California's grid load peaked at 52,000 megawatts on Tuesday night, surpassing the previous record of 50,000 megawatts set in 2006.

This is the background of Silicon Valley's first mobile phone reminder calling for power cuts in Silicon Valley last Tuesday. Millions of Californians have received the blackout warning, from Silicon Valley in Northern California to Central Valley in Southern California to Santa Barbara in Southern California. PG&E, California's largest utility company, even said that 520000 residents could face power outages if the grid is overwhelmed.

The California Office of Energy Services, which sends warnings, says it decides whether to send power-saving warnings based on regional temperatures, population density and air-conditioning usage. The cooler San Francisco residents, whose homes don't need air conditioning at all, have not received a similar warning.

Residents who received the notice were asked to set the air conditioning temperature above 26 degrees and turn off all non-essential appliances and lighting between 3 p.m. and 10 p.m. In addition to government warnings, smart thermometers such as Nest have also begun to remind users to minimize or increase the temperature of central air conditioners during peak periods.

ISO, a non-profit organization that monitors California's power grid operations, said it had issued a three-tier alert before the government sent a power-saving warning, ready to start notifying regions to turn off power cuts, but the timely response of California residents to the warning allowed the grid to restore backup capacity, pulling California back from the brink of mass blackouts. In terms of effectiveness, the California government's push of the power-saving warning has achieved practical results; 20-30 minutes after the warning was sent, California's power grid load fell by about 2000 megawatts.

Fortunately, this wave of extreme heat, which has been raging in California for just over a week, has gradually receded over the weekend. California has also barely survived this round of high-temperature power outages. Just on Friday, California Governor Newsom urgently signed a series of high temperature bills, including the establishment of the first extreme high temperature warning and grading system in the United States, and the creation of a comprehensive high temperature hazard assessment system, which is intended to prepare for future extremely high temperature weather.

However, these high-temperature response bills will not resolve California's power crisis. As the most economically developed state in the United States, California has never extricated itself from the power crisis. Almost every time extreme weather strikes, California residents are shrouded in the shadow of a power outage. The last time the power was cut off was in August 2020, when hundreds of thousands of Californians were forced to face power outages in 40-degree temperatures.

▲ the last nuclear power plant in California

The last nuclear power plant, in fact, the power crisis has been an old problem that has plagued California for more than 20 years, and has even caused political unrest in California. Because of power outages and soaring electricity prices, disgruntled Californians ousted former governor Gray Davis in 2003, and action star Arnold Schwarzenegger was successfully elected governor of California.

Why is the electricity supply in California, the most economically developed state in the United States, so weak? As the richest and most liberal state in the United States, the California government's energy policy has always maintained a fragile balance between people's livelihood and environmental protection. And the power system is under heavy pressure.

California has an area of 410000 square kilometers, ranking third in the United States; it has a population of 42 million, ranking first in the United States; and GDP accounts for 15 percent of the total in the United States, making it the fifth largest economy in the world. But nearly 90% of California's population lives in several metropolitan areas, including the greater Los Angeles area, the San Francisco Bay area, the San Diego area and the Sacramento area, which are also the most densely populated areas in the United States and have the greatest electricity demand.

At present, more than half of California's electricity supply comes from natural gas, 14% from hydropower, 11% from renewable energy such as solar and wind energy, less than 9% from nuclear power, and the rest from out-of-state procurement. To be exact, California has only the last nuclear power plant left, and is facing a shutdown crisis because of operating permits and environmental issues.

The fate of nuclear energy in California is also swaying with the government's policy. The Republican administration in the 1970s saw nuclear energy as an important supplement to renewable energy and approved the construction of four nuclear power plants in California. However, after the Democratic Governor Jerry Brown came to power in the late 1970s, he restricted nuclear power for environmental reasons and vetoed the planning of new nuclear power plants.

In the decades that followed, although California continued to suffer from power crises and people resented the power cuts, California did not develop nuclear power to seek new power supplies. California's four remaining nuclear power plants have been shut down one after another, leaving only the last one.

The DIablo Canyon nuclear power plant is located in San Luis Obispo, Southern California, on the Pacific coast. The 37-year-old plant, which has been in operation for 37 years, has been controversial because of its proximity to the earthquake zone and the disposal of nuclear waste. It was scheduled to be closed after its operating license expires in 2025.

Although environmentalists have been calling for the closure of nuclear power plants, what about the power generation gap after shutting down nuclear power plants? Although the nuclear power plant has been criticized, it still supplies 3 million people with electricity demand. The California government was unable to find a new source of power supply, nor did it find a better and safer location for the plant.

Just earlier this month, under intense pressure from environmental protection agencies, the Democratic government of California decided to extend the operating permit for the Diablo Caynon nuclear power plant until 2030. Although the California government has also set a number of environmental rectification requirements for the continued operation of nuclear power plants, the decision is still a great disappointment to many environmental protection agencies that have called for the closure of nuclear power plants.

▲ Environmental Protection Agency calls for complete Phase-out of fossil fuels

Electricity demand soars 70% California has been leading US climate policy for more than a decade, but environmental programs are also under pressure from people's livelihood. In June this year, the Air Resources Agency (CARB) of the California government proposed a plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030 compared with 1990, and to cut fossil fuel use by 91% by 2045 to achieve complete carbon neutrality.

However, even such an ambitious goal will not satisfy environmentalists. After the California government announced the plan, 73 environmental agencies jointly wrote to the governor of California, criticizing the California government for being too slow to phase out fossil fuels and relying too much on technology to capture and eliminate carbon emissions.

According to official figures in 2018, 30% of California's greenhouse gas emissions come from transportation. To meet its greenhouse gas emissions reduction target, the California government last year unveiled a total ban on the sale of new fuel vehicles by 2035 and 7.5 million zero-emission vehicles by 2030. California sells about 1.9 million new cars a year.

But completely phasing out fuel-fueled cars and switching to electric cars will also pose another problem-California's current weak power system simply cannot guarantee the charging needs of so many electric cars. According to the California government's goal of a total ban on the sale of new fuel cars in 2035, California needs to increase the number of trams by more than 30 times in the future. At present, there are more than 30 million cars, trucks, buses and motorcycles in California.

On the other hand, in addition to vigorously promoting the sales of electric cars, the California government also intends to phase out natural gas, especially the natural gas used by residents. According to California government data, about 10% of California's greenhouse gas emissions come from natural gas used by the public. According to the California Government Air Resources Agency, all new buildings in California will be fully electrified in 2023, and kitchens, heaters and water heaters will all be powered by electricity.

Before the California rules, cities such as San Francisco and Berkeley took the lead last year, banning new homes from connecting to natural gas pipelines (except restaurants). But according to the California government's environmental plan, California residents' electricity consumption will also increase sixfold if they are to completely replace the natural gas used by people's households, because 86% of California's households are using natural gas for heating and cooking.

However, a total ban on natural gas would make California's weak power system even more overwhelmed. A study from the School of Environment and Sustainability at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) shows that housing electrification may increase California's peak power load and increase household energy costs. A total ban on natural gas may have only a limited impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

According to official estimates from the California government, California's electricity consumption will soar by 70% if the carbon neutralization plan is achieved in 2045. Without fuel cars and natural gas, the outlook for nuclear power is bleak, and 40 million people and businesses in California will get their energy and power generation entirely from clean energy. Today, clean energy such as hydro, solar and wind energy accounts for only 1/3 of California's energy mix.

Perhaps aware of the gap between ideal and reality, the California Air Resources Agency has to admit that it is worried that the new generation of renewable energy will not be able to meet the demand, in order to ensure the normal consumption of electricity for residents, it is necessary to add an additional 10 gigawatts of natural gas power generation capacity by 2045. This proposal of "going backwards" has also been criticized by environmental protection agencies.

Perhaps California residents will be warned to limit the use of electricity every time high temperatures hit in the future.

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