Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

CTOnews.com, Sept. 7 (Xinhua)-- ahead of the launch of Apple's iPhone 14 series of new products, analyst Guo Mingyi said that Apple is lowering its shipping forecasts for 14-inch and 16-inch new MacBook Pro models, which Apple plans to start mass production in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Guo Mingyi said that Apple cut 20-30% of orders before mass production of the new 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro, which is a potential structural risk to the high-end ABF and Mini-LED industries.

Guo Mingyi's latest survey points out that the new 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro will enter mass production in 4Q22. However, Apple has slashed its shipping estimates for the new 4Q22 model by 20-30 per cent before mass production. MacBook Pro demand is significantly lower than expected for the structural risk of ABF board and Mini-LED industry.

It is very rare for Apple to cut prenatal orders during peak season / new product volume, which means that demand is significantly lower than expected, so MacBook shipments are likely to continue the YoY recession at least in 1H23.

The recession and falling demand for WFH are the main causes of order cutting, and these two negative effects are likely to last at least 6-9 months.

The main upgrade of the new 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro is only the use of new processors, and limited new selling points may also be responsible for lower-than-expected demand.

The biggest selling points of MacBook Pro are Apple processors (with high-end ABF boards) and Mini-LED displays, so MacBook Pro demand is significantly lower than expected for high-level ABF boards and structural risks for the Mini-LED industry.

4Q22 overall MacBook shipments estimate that due to the cut of the new MacBook Pro, 15-20% MacBook shipments declined 10-15% YoY (vs. The market consensus is 5-10% YoY recession).

The shipping time of MacBook Pro standard / customized models on Apple's official website has significantly decreased from "4-6 weeks / 6-8 weeks" 2-3 months ago to "spot / 1 week" now, mainly due to a significant decline in demand.

In recent years, the expansion of ABF industry is mainly to meet the optimistic expectations of Apple processors and Intel server processors. Following the slowdown in shipments of Intel server processors, the potential risk of a decline in 4Q22 orders and 1H23 shipments of MacBook Pro / high-end Apple processors will increase the chances that high-end ABF capacity will be oversupplied in 2023.

Mini-LED demand is mainly driven by Apple, and the potential risk of YoY decline in 4Q22 orders and 1H23 shipments by MacBook Pro may significantly reduce the kinetic energy of Mini-LED equipment shipments in 2023.

Although Apple's MacBook cut less than its competitors, it also means that Apple's demand for high-end products is still not immune from recession / inflation, so investors should keep a close eye on whether demand for iPhone 14 Pro will also be affected by recession / inflation.

CTOnews.com learned that in November 2021, Apple introduced new 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro, as well as new mini LED displays, new ports, improved design, and powerful M1 Pro and M1 Max chips.

According to Bloomberg, the new 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro may be released before it arrives at WWDC23 next spring. Apple is also expected to host a Mac-focused event in October.

"JPMorgan analyst: Apple iPhone 14 / Pro price increases but will still sell well, high Apple Watch Pro price will lead to sales risk."

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