Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

Thank CTOnews.com netizens Shenzhen pretty boy for the clue delivery! CTOnews.com Sept. 7, Sept. 6, with the theme of "reshaping the New pattern of Automobile Core supply chain", the "2022 Global New Energy and Intelligent Network Automotive supply chain Innovation Conference" jointly sponsored by China Electric vehicle Association and Jiangning District people's Government of Nanjing opened in Nanjing. Miao Wei, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the CPPCC National Committee and former minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, delivered a speech on the theme of "thinking about the key issues facing the current automobile supply chain" at the conference.

When talking about the key issues facing the current automobile supply chain, Miao Wei said that the "electrification" of cars is a major trend. China is expected to complete the production and sale of 5.5 million new energy vehicles in the whole year, an increase of 56 per cent over the same period last year. The target of 20% penetration of new energy vehicles by 2025 is likely to be achieved this year three years ahead of schedule.

In terms of the development trend of automotive operating systems, Miao Wei said that "lack of core" has been taken seriously, but "less soul" is easy to be ignored. Many automobile companies realize the importance of chips for autonomous control of automobile supply chain, but the operating system is a more urgent and fatal problem than chips, and it is the key to determine the outcome of automobile intelligence and networking. Miao Wei believes that solving the problem of the operating system can also solve the problem of hindering the development of advanced chip manufacturing processes to a certain extent. "fortunately, the global development pattern of smart cars has not yet been determined. The time window left for us is about three years, or five years at most."

Miao Wei said that to make good plans in advance, we must establish an independent and controllable operating system, we must establish a development model of the combination of software and hardware, and car companies must play a leading role in this.

CTOnews.com attached the full text of Miao Wei speech shorthand (without my review):

The topic of my speech today is "thinking about the key issues facing the current automobile supply chain".

When it comes to the issue of automobile supply chain, because under the influence of the global COVID-19 epidemic and geopolitics, the supply chain of new energy vehicles and intelligent network vehicles has changed greatly in recent years, and the supply chain of global layout will change in the future. short-chain and regional chain multi-point supply will be the development trend of the future supply chain, and the supply chain is not simply an economic decision-making problem. It has been disturbed by many political factors, but no matter how it changes, I personally think that as a supply chain, the layout close to the market and the factory will not change.

China is the largest market for automobiles. The annual production and sales of our cars account for about 1x3 of the global annual production and sales of cars. For many years in a row, the annual production and sales of our new energy vehicles have accounted for more than half of the global output of new energy vehicles. So we are still full of confidence in the supply chain of new energy vehicles and intelligent Internet connected vehicles deployed in China. This layout will not be transferred by the will of some politicians. After all, economic laws still play a decisive role in the development of new energy vehicles, our production and sales volume exceeded 3.5 million in the first half of this year, an increase of about 1.6 times over the same period last year. We predict that the production and sales of new energy vehicles for the whole of this year may reach 5.5 million, an increase of 56% over the same period last year. Our original target of 20% penetration of new energy vehicles by 2025 set by our latest round of medium-and long-term development plans for new energy vehicles now seems likely to be achieved three years ahead of schedule this year, which involves the biggest change in the global automobile industry in a century. In fact, it has been more than 100 years since the invention of the car, nearly 140 years of history.

How on earth did this change change?

As far as automotive products are concerned, I personally think that electrification and intelligence will be the main direction of change. Why didn't I talk about networking? Because no matter from new energy vehicles or intelligent vehicles, networking is a means to empower the electric and intelligent promotion of automotive products. In this regard, through unified understanding and action, China can completely make up for the gap with the level of western developed countries. For example, we have a very good 5G network in the development of intelligent Internet-connected cars, and the biggest application scenario of 5G is 2B, not 2Cjing2B. The biggest visible market is car networking, and we can give full play to our advantages in this respect.

When it comes to smart cars, in foreign countries, because there is no such condition, all the problems must be carried by car companies on their own products. Do we have to make cameras for every car? every car at every intersection has to perceive the surrounding environment. I don't think this is an economical or the most effective way. We can completely build roadside units to provide this realistic scene to all cars passing through this intersection, which can be more effective and reduce application costs from the whole society. Of course, early investment is another thing to consider, so networking is our advantage, and we can change to leave all problems to car companies in western countries. we solve some problems in the process of intelligent vehicle promotion through car-road coordination, local governments at all levels and cross-industry cooperation.

In the promotion of new energy vehicles, the construction of social public charging piles has greatly promoted everyone to solve the problem of charging difficulties, and local governments at all levels have played a vital role in this regard. Without their efforts, we now have more than 2.6 million charging piles, especially more than 1 million public charging piles, which could not have been set up in such a short time. Of course, this is not enough, we have to continue to explore the route, but this road has been proved by past practice, this is our institutional advantage, so we have to inherit it in the future development.

Now when it comes to the supply chain of new energy vehicles, let's start with the issue of chips.

As for the development of chips, consumer chips have the highest requirements and greatest demand for advanced process technology in previous years. With the development of consumer chips represented by smartphones, vehicle specification-grade chips are second only to military-grade chips. the working condition of the chip is worse than that of consumer and industrial applications, especially for higher life requirements. In addition, in addition to general standards, vehicle gauge-level chips should also adapt to a series of standards used by automobiles. For example, to prove the reliability of the chips, we usually take the AEC-Q100 standard system implemented in North America as a standard for our reliability verification. For example, if we want to control the failure rate, we must establish the quality control system of the chip enterprise, and talk about the quality control system IATF-16949. We have been converted to the national standard, which is an unavoidable standard certification. When it comes to functional safety, ISO 26262 is also a certification that must be passed, so the specification-level chips require higher requirements than consumer-grade and industrial-grade chips, the certification time is longer, and the threshold for getting on the car is higher than that of consumer-grade chips.

In addition to the chip, I would also like to talk about the problem of software. In the computer age, we created the "Wintel Alliance". PC machines all over the world probably use the Windows operating system. In the process of converting feature phones to smartphones, companies represented by Apple have created a non-open source, closed and closed operating system iOS. Google saw the opportunity and launched an Android operating system that is open source, open, and free for everyone to use. So in the smartphone era, with the exception of Apple with a market share of 10% and 20%, all mobile phone companies around the world have chosen Android as their operating system.

In the past, I also thought there was nothing wrong with open source operating systems, but two years ago, the United States cracked down on Huawei. In addition to stopping the supply of chips, there were also restrictions on the use of Android operating systems, not to restrict Huawei's use of Android operating systems, but to restrict Huawei's use of App applications installed on Android, making Hongmeng's former industrial operating systems become regular temporarily. Hongmeng can survive the continuation and upgrading of Huawei's old customers, otherwise even some Huawei customers in China will be difficult to maintain, but the loss of the market outside China is considerable.

Therefore, through the lack of the operating system of mobile phones, we deeply realize that in the process of transforming functional products into intelligent products, if there is no operating system, no matter how strong the chip is, no matter how good the car is, we will build tall buildings on the beach. If the problem of "lack of core and little soul" is not solved, we can't walk fast, nor can we go far.

The second part I would like to share with you is the development trend and thinking of automotive chip supply chain.

Here is a brief introduction to our domestic chip development in recent years. In terms of design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, chip design companies have made the fastest progress in recent years with the development of our smartphones. It turns out that Huawei Hayes once entered the top 10 of integrated circuit design enterprises in the world. At the highest time, I remember that it seemed to be ranked fifth, and Spreadtrum Riddick had also entered the top 10 in the world, but unfortunately, after the United States cracked down on Huawei. The current chip design company Huawei can no longer be included, because although it can be designed, no one is streaming or contract manufacturing for Huawei. But it is an indisputable fact that we have made the fastest progress in terms of design ability.

Now, from a national point of view, the United States ranks first in the world in the field of global chip design, with a 68% market share, as a result of last year's statistics. The second and third places in the world are Taiwan and Chinese mainland, with a market share of 16% and 13% respectively.

When it comes to packaging and testing, China has the strongest strength and the smallest gap with the world's leading level. among our top 10 packaging companies in the world, there are five in Taiwan and three in Chinese mainland. The three in the mainland are Changdian Technology, Tonfu Micro Power and Huatian Technology. There is only one in the United States and one in Singapore, which is one of the top 10 in the world.

We encounter resistance in the chip flow of the advanced process, and there is another way of thinking, that is, we can solve the problem by encapsulating different types of chips together to make up for our defects in the advanced process to a certain extent. and this is also the mainstream direction of international development.

What we have a relatively large gap now is the wafer manufacturing process of the chip. now the most advanced process can only reach 14 nanometers. because the lithography machine of the United States to the Netherlands EUV has ordered that it is not allowed to be exported to China, so we are blocked in upgrading to a more advanced process. However, from the global distribution, the advanced process is certainly good, but the current market share is still relatively small. Affected by the chip shortage in the past two years, we are mainly chips with a mature process of 28nm and above. In particular, in addition to digital circuits, analog circuit chips, power semiconductors, sensor chips are all tight. Therefore, in this regard, we must first consolidate our inherent advantages as far as possible, because when our development of advanced processes is blocked, our insufficient production capacity of 28 nm and above is also a contradiction for us. so now we are desperately investing to expand our mature process production capacity of 28 nm and above.

For automotive gauge-level chips, in addition to a small number of AI chips, including a little bit for CPU and GPU,GPU, and a little bit for CPU, it is best to have an advanced process, and we can solve it in other ways without an advanced process. And in total, the proportion of advanced process chips to automotive gauge-level chips is still relatively low, and it is still a mature process-based structure.

From the perspective of the whole vehicle, now with the development of new energy vehicles, from the decentralized ECU control in the past, now the newly designed platform and newly developed platform have achieved the electronic and electrical architecture of centralized domain controller. Looking forward to the future, it will further concentrate on the vehicle central computing platform on the basis of the domain controller, and each concentration will help to give full play to the efficiency of the vehicle gauge-level chip in the vehicle. At present, because of decentralized control, and because domain controllers do not give full play to the efficiency of on-board computing, in the development direction of the whole vehicle, many chips are moving from domain controllers to central computing architectures. this is a development trend that has been put forward several years ago, which is a slope chart.

Speaking of China, on this basis, combined with what I said earlier, we must consider the development of cloud control platform in an overall and forward-looking manner. At the end of the discussion in the morning, because there were more chip companies present in the morning, I said that we were all paying attention to the car gauge-level chips used on the car side. Recently, the US Department of Commerce restricted Nvidia's export of GPU chips to China. I said, why does Nvidia not restrict Orin but restrict GPU chips? Later, Yu Kai told me that Nvidia's GPU chip was very important for training artificial intelligence systems, so he was stuck at the key point. What I mean by this is that while we are all concerned about the AI chips used on the car side, we may pay little attention to the development of artificial intelligence system chips in the cloud, and we need to make up for this deficiency as soon as possible.

In the collaborative development direction of automobile enterprises and automotive chips, I personally think that automobile companies should bear the responsibility of "chain length". This issue was mentioned in a speech this morning. In the past, automobile companies basically did not care about the issue of chips. chip selection and matching are basically done by primary suppliers and secondary suppliers. The system-level chip matching of our power system is also provided by the world's famous parts suppliers according to the system, so the car company is basically a user, now the car company does not necessarily go to make the core, but the car company must understand the core. Car companies must have an overall consideration on how to establish a cross-industry alliance and cooperation between their own development and the development of chips. This is related to the future development of car companies, this is a big problem, and only when this kind of establishment is established, can a good industrial development ecology be formed.

Here are some of the trends and personal thoughts I share with you about the development of automotive chips.

The third part focuses on the development trend and thinking of vehicle operating system.

It was mentioned earlier that the electronic and electrical architecture of the whole vehicle has developed from distributed to centralized, and the automobile software has also evolved from embedded software development to full-stack software development. The operating system can act as a connecting link between the preceding and the following, and can be responsible for internal management and external interaction.

Now the development trend of full-stack operating system is very obvious. Some car companies are interested in building their own full-stack operating system. I think it is possible for capable car companies to build their own full-stack operating system. But we have to talk about the example of mobile phones. At that time, Samsung also had a smartphone operating system, and Nokia also had its own Symbian smartphone operating system, but under the trend of open source, open and free Android. With the exception of Apple, almost all mobile phone manufacturers in the world follow Android. Now Android has begun to enter the car company through the car machine system in the development of smart cars, and the next step is that it will further infiltrate into the cockpit system and chassis system. I am worried about whether we will have this situation of mobile phones in three or five years' time. Smart cars all over the world have adopted an open source, open, and fully free operating system. Once this ecology is formed, that is, the law of the jungle and winner-takes-all, mobile phones show that there are only the first and second in the world, and there is no third in the world. I guess this will also be the end of global cars in the future. Tesla has decided to get rid of AutoSar. By writing code line by line, I have created a closed-loop and closed operating system, just like Apple at that time. In addition to Tesla, there are at most one or two enterprises. If there is no production and sales of millions of vehicles, the functional software of autopilot or the App software used by users will not adapt to your non-mainstream operating system first. People must be looking for a large operating system, and the operating system with the largest number of users will adapt first. This is the ecology of industrial development, and there is no way. Including Google is not selfless, nor is it free, although there is no charge for direct customers, but for all App software installed on Android, in addition to getting his certification on the Android platform, Android also charges a fee. This is Internet thinking, "wool grows on pigs", so the operating system is a more urgent supply chain problem than chips.

Car companies have been deeply aware of the constraints of chip shortage on our development in recent years, but most enterprises have not realized that the lack of operating systems will be a fatal problem. In a positive sense, now we can decouple hardware and software through operating system building. An operating system can adapt to several heterogeneous chips, not to mention isomorphic chips. It can adapt to the same type of chips from different manufacturers. There is no problem with decoupling at the bottom of the operating system, as we said, computer peripherals plug and play. The future chip will also be plug and play, so solving the problem of operating system can also solve the problem of hindering the development of our advanced chip manufacturing process to a certain extent. Fortunately, the global intelligent car development pattern has not yet been determined. The time window left for us is about three years, or at most five years. If we want to enhance our sense of urgency, I would rather use three years. Through three years of efforts to create an independent controllable, open source open, preferably free operating system, to form an industrial development ecology in the Chinese market. Because, after all, China accounts for the output of 1Compact 3 in the world, if we account for more than half of the world in terms of the development of smart cars and new energy vehicles, and our every move is enough to affect the world, boldly imagine whether it can once again become the leader of the global automotive operating system after 5G.

In this respect, there is another important problem when it comes to operating systems and chips. For a long time, we did not have enough coordination between software and hardware in the development of electronic information, chips and software. those who engage in hardware engage in hardware and those who engage in software engage in software. finally, when something goes wrong, the hardware is said to be a software problem, and the software is a hardware problem. Let's take a look at the international development trend. In the computer era, there are the "Winter Alliance", and in the mobile phone era, there are Android and ARM alliances. In the automobile age, we must solve the problems that have been neglected for a long time, and the software and hardware must cooperate together at the very beginning, so that we can complement each other and cooperate with each other.

Finally, I would like to say that, of course, under the premise of opening up, we should not seek 100% autonomy, which is unscientific, uneconomical and impossible. We also need to open wider to the outside world. We welcome foreign vehicle enterprises, foreign chip enterprises and foreign software enterprises to invest in China and share the dividends of China's automobile development hand in hand with us. Of course, we should also change the practice that we actively integrated into the development pattern of global integration and actively participated in the division of labor in the international industrial chain after China's accession to the WTO. Because today, the containment and crackdown on China by the United States will not stop, so we must have a spare tire, and we do not pursue 100% domestic production. however, we must also prevent some countries from cracking down on our fastest-growing industries and best-developing enterprises at critical times, so we must make plans in advance, we must establish an independent and controllable operating system, and we must establish a development model of the combination of software and hardware. Car companies must play a leading role in this.

These are the main contents of my speech today. Thank you!

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