Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

The "space" theme of Apple's invitation to launch this fall has led many in the industry to speculate that the Apple iPhone 14 series will support the long-rumored "satellite communication" feature.

Just this week, Guo Mingyi, a well-known Apple analyst, released his latest research on Apple's satellite communications function. He believes that it is inevitable for iPhone to support satellite communications, but it is still uncertain whether the feature will be launched in iPhone 14.

As early as last year, Guo Mingyi predicted that the iPhone 13 series might support satellite communications, but in the end this prediction did not come true. Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman (Mark Gurman) has also looked ahead to what Apple's satellite communications function will have.

Guo Mingyi also mentioned that Huawei's Mate50 series of phones, to be released on September 6, may provide the ability to send emergency text messages through satellite communications based on Beidou system.

As soon as Guo Mingyi spoke, Yu Chengdong, Huawei's terminal business CEO and smart car solution BU CEO, said that Huawei Mate50 would release a "sky-breaking" technology. Later, Huawei insiders confirmed to the media that Huawei Mate50 would indeed support satellite communications.

In other words, Huawei will most likely pre-empt Apple's release of satellite communications.

Why does Apple Huawei bet on satellite communications one after another? What on earth can an iPhone supporting satellite communications do, and what adjustments need to be made by an iPhone to support satellite communications? will satellite communications subvert today's cellular mobile network in the future?

A new change in the field of mobile communication technology is brewing.

01. Satellite communications can "save lives" or become a must for smartphones. Bloomberg reporter Gurman mentioned that it has not been a day or two for Apple to implement satellite communications on the iPhone.

Why does Apple have a passion for satellite communications? what's the use of this function?

In a word, this function will allow us to send messages and make calls in areas where there is no cell phone signal.

For example, in some emergency situations where the mobile phone does not have a signal, we can quickly send a message to the emergency contact person; in some plane crashes, the accident site is often very remote and the mobile phone has no signal. At this time, we can use satellite communications to report the accident in time.

Of course, for people who get lost traveling or exploring in remote areas, this function can also "save lives" in places where 4G or 5G signals are not covered by remote mountains, lakes and so on.

Guo Mingyi believes that the increasing frequency of natural disasters and geopolitical conflicts in recent years may make emergency communication capabilities based on satellite communications an essential feature of smartphones.

At this point, you may have some "bold ideas". If iPhone can communicate without a signal, does that mean we can get rid of the restrictions of cellular mobile networks and no longer need to apply for mobile plans?

According to the information disclosed by people familiar with the matter, the initial application scope of Apple's satellite communications function is still relatively limited, mainly focusing on the handling of some crisis situations.

According to people familiar with the matter, Apple is now developing at least two specific "emergency functions" (emergency features), all of which will rely on satellite networks, which Apple will use in future iPhone.

The first function will be called "sending emergency messages via satellite (Emergency Message via Satellite)", which allows users to send emergency messages through a satellite network when there is no signal on their phone.

This feature will be integrated into iOS's message App in the form of "gray bubbles" rather than green or blue bubbles for regular messages.

The second feature will be the reporting of major accidents, such as plane crashes and ship sinks, which also require satellite network support.

Apple's satellite communications tool, which implements major accident reporting, has an internal code name "Stewie". The tool will limit the length of messages sent, which will be automatically sent to the emergency contact's phone, which will receive a message and prompt even if the emergency contact has been set "do not disturb".

In this function, the phone will ask users what kind of crisis they have encountered, whether it involves a car, a ship, an aircraft or a fire. In addition, users can further report more specific information, such as whether there are casualties, whether search and rescue services are needed, whether there is suspicious behavior or gun threats.

When a user uses the emergency service, the phone sends the user's location information and medical ID, a virtual card in Apple's health App that records the user's age, medical history, medication, height and weight.

Apple has designed a delivery method in which users enter the phrase "Emergency SOS" and the phone automatically sends the message to the emergency contact.

Apple has also tested a method of connecting satellites, which requires users to walk in a certain direction outdoors to help iPhone get satellite signals, and the connection is not immediate and can sometimes take a minute or so to complete.

In addition to sending text messages, the satellite communications tool may later have the ability to handle satellite phone calls.

In the final analysis, however, whether these functions can be achieved depends in part on the availability of satellites and whether local regulations allow it. Obviously, this feature does not apply to all countries and regions.

02. The hardware test is in place, customized baseband chip, Apple still want to "launch satellite"? These functions have been brewing for a long time. In fact, Apple has been working on satellite-related technology for years, and according to Bloomberg, the Apple team's exploration in this field can be traced back to 2017.

On August 29, 2021, Guo Mingyi predicted that the iPhone 13 series would support satellite communications capabilities. He mentioned that the Qualcomm x60 5G baseband on the iPhone 13 series will support low-orbit satellite communications (low-earth orbit satellite communications).

Guo Mingyi made these judgments mainly based on the cooperation between Apple 5G baseband supplier Qualcomm and Globalstar (Global Star) in this field.

With regard to the specific business model, he believes that if the user's operators (such as T-Mobile, Verizon) have already cooperated with Global Star, then users can directly use Global Star's satellite communication services through the services of operators.

In his latest analysis, Guo Mingyi mentioned that Apple has now completed the hardware test of the satellite communications function, and whether Apple will specifically apply this function depends on whether Apple and operators can agree on a business model.

He believes that Apple completed the hardware development of satellite communications as early as iPhone 13, but had not yet established a business model at that time.

Once Apple's iPhone has satellite communications, it will be the first mainstream smartphone to support it. Guo Mingyi also mentioned that if other mobile phone manufacturers also want to use satellite communications, they are likely to be a year later than Apple.

Satellite phones are nothing new, and consumer-grade satellite phones can be easily purchased at present. Satellite phones generally need to have a large independent antenna, in some cases, some other auxiliary equipment is needed to capture and relay satellite signals.

Common satellite phones and accessories on the market of ▲

What "customization" will Apple do to the baseband chip to achieve this function? How will Apple design the antenna to achieve this communication function? There are still no clear answers to these questions, and they are also of considerable concern to the industry. But what is certain is that in order to connect to the satellite, Apple does need a "custom" communications chip that is different from the existing 5G baseband.

Guo Mingyi also mentioned that Apple's attempt at satellite communication technology on iPhone is just the beginning. In the future, Apple's MR and even Apple's electric vehicles will be enhanced by the addition of satellite communication technology.

Not long ago, Gurman revealed that Apple's upcoming "Pro" version of Apple Watch will also support satellite communications.

In the more distant future, Apple may even consider eventually deploying its own satellite, but the realization of its functions in the near future will rely on the existing satellite network, Bloomberg reported.

Given Apple's habit of keeping key technologies in its own hands, we wouldn't be too surprised if they did develop their own communications satellites and launch them into space to build their own satellite communications network.

03. Who is the "global star" who enjoys the big order of Apple alone? Although Apple's ideals are full, but back to reality, can we really see satellite communications landing iPhone 14 this year?

Another person familiar with the matter contacted by Bloomberg said that while the iPhone 14 may already have the hardware needed to implement satellite communications, the actual satellite communications functions may not be ready yet, and he does not think Apple will be able to do so until at least 2023.

So despite a lot of speculation in the industry, Apple is likely to temporarily change or abandon these features before the actual release of iPhone 14 on September 8.

According to Apple's custom, a feature will never be released if it is not polished and mature.

Whether or not Apple iPhone 14 will support satellite communications, the share price of Global Star, a potential partner mentioned above, has really soared, rising by more than 33% in the past month.

Stock price chart of ▲ Global Star in the past month, source: Google Finance

Global Star had previously announced that it had signed an agreement with an "undisclosed partner" to develop a new service. Some industry insiders believe that the partner is likely to be Apple.

Iridium Communications (Iridium Communications) and Omnispace are two major competitors to Global Star, but Apple is not currently working with Iridium Communications, and industry analyst Tim Farrar said Omnispace has not promised to build a system to support such services.

The iridium system used in Iridium communications stems from Motorola's "Iridium program" in its heyday in the 1990s, which uses 77 near-Earth satellites to allow us to make phone calls anywhere in the world.

But the end result is that 66 satellites have been hit, and Motorola has been dragged down by a huge investment. After the split, the business has survived and developed into today's Iridium communications, which makes people marvel at its indomitable vitality.

Now it seems that this big cake of Apple satellite communications is exclusively enjoyed by global stars.

Among the shareholders of Global Star, we can see Qualcomm. In fact, Global Star system is a low orbit satellite mobile communication system proposed by LQSS to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in June 1991, while LQSS is a company jointly established by Loral and Qualcomm.

From a technical point of view, the satellite communication system used by Global Satellite is different from the iridium system used by its competitor Iridium in structural design and technology. to put it simply, what the global satellite system wants to achieve is that any user in the world can access the terrestrial public network at any time through the system.

The global satellite system uses low-orbit satellites to form a continuous global mobile communication satellite system, which is more like an extension and supplement of our existing ground cellular mobile communication system and other mobile communication systems. it's not a mutual substitution.

The technical characteristics and advantages of Global Star may also be the main consideration for Apple to choose it. After all, Apple always chooses only the top players in the industry when it chooses suppliers.

Guo Mingyi also believes that in the satellite communication service ecosystem, satellite communication operators such as Global Star have a high barrier to entry, which deserves the high attention of investors.

04. The acceleration mode of satellite communications has been opened on the ground, and the United States has absolutely dominated the market. At present, Apple iPhone's use of satellite communications seems to be ahead of schedule, causing a lot of attention, but in the near future, satellite communications may become the "normal" of the smartphone market.

On the domestic side, Huawei's Mate50 series is basically certain that it will release some emergency message sending functions based on satellite communications before Apple.

Just recently, MediaTek, the world's largest mobile chip manufacturer by shipments, also announced that it had successfully completed the world's first laboratory connection test of 5G NTN satellite mobile phones, connecting smartphones to 5G non-terrestrial network (NTN) and achieving high-speed and reliable 5G connectivity through satellites.

In overseas markets, telecom giants T-Mobile and SpaceX have jointly announced that Starlink (Star chain) satellites launched next year will be able to connect directly to operators' mobile phones through the existing cellular network band. The two companies hope to allow users to enjoy global roaming services wherever the satellite is covered.

▲ left: Mike Sievert, right: Musk

Most importantly, the service is likely to be added to the existing T-Mobile package for free.

In other words, if Apple iPhone 14 does not support satellite communications, T-Mobile operators will be the first to enjoy satellite communications services next year.

"it's like placing a cellular tower in the sky, but it's much more difficult," says T-Mobile 's CEO Mike Sievert.

SpaceX CEO Musk added: "what we have to do is not only to rewrite the satellite program, but also to create one of the most advanced phased array antennas in the world."... satellites fly over our heads at 17,000 miles per hour. Normally, no signal tower can fly, let alone so fast. "

It is understood that the service will initially support text messaging and may also support some instant messaging App. Musk said that subsequent voice calls and real-time message transmission are possible.

However, Sievert did not forget to "take a shot." he said that there are still some technical problems to be solved, such as a delay of about half an hour in the launch of the message.

It can be seen that there are still a lot of problems to be solved on the eve of the landing of satellite communications smartphones.

Ten years ago, Google tried to use hydrogen balloons for large area signal coverage, but the effect was not good, the cost was too high, and finally gave up.

Today, balloons are replaced by satellites.

At present, the global communications market has reached an average annual size of US $1 trillion, but the network coverage is less than 10% of the earth's area. Due to the limitation of geographical factors, the number of signal transmission towers is close to saturation.

According to Research And Markets data, the global communications industry market size will reach 3.461 trillion US dollars in 2025, and the global satellite Internet output value is expected to reach 5600-850 billion US dollars by 2025.

The entry of various science and technology giants has further accelerated the development of satellite Internet.

SpaceX belongs to the newcomer who has a louder voice and walks faster. SpaceX began to implement the star chain project as early as 2019, and plans to launch 42000 star chain satellites to form a star chain network to provide satellite Internet services for the world. So far, about 2000 satellites have been launched.

Tianfeng Securities analysis believes that with the launch of the US "Star chain" program, the global competition for the development of Leo satellites is becoming increasingly fierce, and space orbits and frequency bands, which are non-renewable strategic resources, will be increasingly scarce.

The United States, Britain, Canada, and Russia have all accelerated the deployment of low-orbit satellites. Skywind Securities estimates that the number of satellites launched by the United States will account for more than 90 percent of the global low-earth orbit satellites in the future, reaching about 50000.

On the domestic side, Jiutian MSI, a private commercial aerospace company invested by Xi'an Institute of Optics and Precision Machinery, Chinese Academy of Sciences, launched seven "ladybug series" satellites into orbit in 2018. Constellation Internet of things verification has been carried out in the fields of wildlife protection, field emergency rescue, vehicle and ship monitoring, and logistics traceability.

In 2019, the Tianqi Cangzhou satellite developed by Beijing Guodian Hi-Tech Technology Co., Ltd. was successfully put into orbit, realizing the preliminary network operation of the Internet of things constellation.

Tianfeng Securities Research News believes that at present, China has only three low-orbit broadband communication satellites in orbit, and the construction of satellite Internet is lagging behind.

▲ 2029 Global low Earth orbit Satellite layout and proportion (number,%), Source: Tianfeng Securities

In addition to SpaceX,OneWeb, Amazon and other technology companies also enter this market as new players. In addition, the "three giants" of traditional satellite suppliers, such as SES of the United States, Eutelsat of Europe, and Intelsat of Intelsat, have also launched their own high-throughput satellite programs to boost the satellite Internet market.

From mobile phone manufacturers, chip manufacturers, satellite manufacturers to satellite communication operators, the whole satellite Internet ecology is developing rapidly, and it is inevitable for satellite communications to land smart phones.

05. Conclusion: whether Huawei Mate50 will beat Apple's iPhone 14 to become the world's first mainstream smartphone to support satellite communications as a new variable in the consumer electronics market will be revealed next week. It is conceivable that if Apple iPhone 14 supports this feature, it will certainly lead to the development of the entire industry chain, and we will see more smartphones supporting satellite communications.

At present, satellite communication mainly solves the communication problem in emergency and remote areas without signal coverage, which is a "complementary" relationship with the existing cellular mobile network. However, with the maturity of satellite communication technology, will it further replace cellular mobile networks, or even change the market pattern of existing mobile network operators? There is room for imagination.

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