Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

CTOnews.com, September 2 (Xinhua)-- smartphone shipments are expected to fall by 6.5% to 1.27 billion units this year and increase prices by 6.3%, according to the latest report released by IDC. The main reason is that consumer demand has been greatly suppressed due to the influence of inflation and geopolitics.

The latest global mobile phone quarterly tracking report released by IDC shows that the latest forecast is 3 percentage points lower than the previous forecast. But analysts say the setback is only short-term, with the market rebounding in 2023 at an annual growth rate of 5.2 per cent and a five-year compound annual growth rate of 1.4 per cent in the long run.

Nabila Popal, research director of IDC's global mobile and consumer device tracking division, said:

Since last year, the supply constraints that have weighed on the market have eased, and the industry has turned to markets where demand is limited. High channel inventories, low demand and no signs of an immediate recovery panicked oem and slashed orders for 2022. The events of the past 12 months have reduced our market forecasts for the second quarter of 2021 by 150 million. Despite the decline in sales, the average price (asp) rose 10 per cent in the second quarter from a year earlier and is expected to grow 6.3 per cent for the full year. High-end phones (over $800) have proved resilient in the economic turmoil, growing their share of the entire smartphone market by 4 percentage points to 16% and will continue to grow. These include foldable devices, which are by far the fastest growing part, and shipments of foldable devices are expected to grow 70% year-on-year to 13.5 million units by 2022.

CTOnews.com learned that regional differences may be large. IDC believes that the North American market is less affected, while the Chinese market, Central and Eastern Europe and other regions are more affected.

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will fall by 17.4 per cent in 2022, while the Asia-Pacific region, which had previously forecast growth of 3.0 per cent, excluding Japan and China, is expected to fall by 4.5 per cent in 2022. However, the biggest decline was in China, where sales are expected to fall 12.5 per cent to about 41 million units, accounting for nearly half of the overall decline this year. By contrast, developed markets such as North America (the US and Canada) and Western Europe are expected to perform much better in 2022. The US market will be relatively stable, growing 0.3 per cent year-on-year, while the Canadian market will be slightly better, up 3.2 per cent year-on-year, and the western European market will only have a slight decline of 0.7 per cent.

IDC believes that global 5G equipment shipments will grow by 23.6% year-on-year in 2022, accounting for more than half of all shipments (54%) with 688 million devices and $616 ASP.

In the long run, 5G models are expected to reach 79% market share in 2026, with ASP reaching $444. By contrast, 4G ASP will reach $176 in 2022, and IDC expects it to fall to $106 by the end of the year. As a result, overall smartphone ASP will fall from $413 in 2022 to $373 in 2026.

Anthony Scarsela, research director of global mobile and consumer device tracking at IDC, said: "the resilience at the top of the market is a testament to iOS's success and iOS's annual shipments have never declined since 2019." Despite the overall decline in the market, iOS shipments will continue to grow by 0.5% in 2022. In addition, the operating system will show the smallest growth over the forecast period, with asp hovering above $950. As for Android, the world's most popular operating system, it will decline by nearly 8 per cent in 2022 but will rebound strongly with 6.2 per cent growth in 2023. Unfortunately, the low-end market did not perform well in 2022, with shipments of android devices under $200 falling by 22.4% in the first quarter and 16.5% in the second quarter. The good news is that sales of devices worth more than $1000 are up 35.2%, thanks to the success of high-end flagship products and recent folding devices on the market. "

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