Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

On August 23rd, according to the latest report from Morgan Stanley. It will also lead to a faster-than-expected normalization of pricing, which is expected to start falling from 2023.

At recent corporate earnings meetings, Intel, AMD and Nvidia all lowered their outlook for PC and game GPU and slightly adjusted server demand due to weak demand and increased inventory. Taiwan's ABF board manufacturer Xinxing also reported a slight drop in revenue in July.

Combining the supply chain survey and the latest data, Morgan Stanley believes that starting from Q4 this year, the price is unlikely to rise. The ABF board market will be oversupplied from 2022 to 2025, with an oversupply of about 1 per cent in 2022 and expanding to 3 per cent by 2025.

Morgan Stanley expects suppliers of Intel and Nvidia, such as Xinxing and Jingshuo, to be affected. Take Xinxing as an example, capacity adjustment is taking place with the decline in PC demand; for Jingshuo, a survey by Morgan Stanley found that Nvidia cut orders at Q4 by 20-25%, but Jingshuo is optimistic that other customers will be able to fill this capacity.

The report also noted that changes in the product mix could still push up pricing and profit margins, but Morgan Stanley expects pricing for ABF plates to normalize from Q2 in 2023 and net profits for ABF suppliers to begin to decline.

It is understood that the ABF carrier board is a high-density semiconductor packaging substrate that can realize the high-speed and multi-function of LSI chips, which can be used in CPU, GPU, high-end servers, network router / converter ASIC, high-performance game console MPU, high-performance ASSP, FPGA and ADAS in vehicle equipment.

Due to the emergence of the epidemic, the demand for LSI chips such as CPU and GPU has doubled, which has led to a capacity shortage of high-end ABF carrier boards since 2020 and continues to this day.

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