Shulou(Shulou.com)11/24 Report--

While many companies cut or cancel orders, TSMC has raised its full-year revenue target, according to the website. Recently, sources told digitimes that TSMC's confidence in its performance comes from winning orders from six major customers, including Qualcomm, Intel and Nvidia.

The main force of TSMC's performance growth in the second half of the year came from Qualcomm's big orders. In addition to the 7nm process, Qualcomm also placed orders for 5nm and 4nm chips, which are expected to make up for reduced orders from other customers.

It is understood that the yield and performance of TSMC's 5nm and following processes are better than those of its competitors. Sources said that the cooperation between Qualcomm and TSMC will continue on 3nm and 2nm.

At the same time, Qualcomm recently signed a long-term procurement agreement with GE Core. Qualcomm will buy a total of $7.4 billion from GF by 2028, more than double the $3.2 billion previously agreed. The special processes of 12nm and 14nm and above will not affect the cooperation between Qualcomm and TSMC at 7nm and below.

TSMC notes that consumer market demand has weakened, but demand for data centers and automotive electronics applications has remained stable. TSMC has been able to support this demand by reallocating capacity. Even if inventory continues to adjust, customer demand still exceeds TSMC's capacity supply. As a result, production capacity is expected to remain tight throughout 2022.

The semiconductor industry believes that the final inventory adjustment will continue into the first half of 2023.

TSMC's biggest customer is believed to be Apple, which accounts for more than 25 per cent of its revenue. The customer is gradually increasing orders for TSMC's Mac series, which will become the exclusive manufacturer of Mac chips in 2023, the source said.

TSMC will also benefit from favorable exchange rates and overall price increases in 2022. In addition, the average selling price (ASP) of 7nm and 5nm processes, which account for 51 per cent of the company's revenue, has increased significantly. It is estimated that the 28nm process has risen to more than $3000. Wafer prices for 16nm and 12nm are about $5000, 7nm is close to $10000, and 5nm and 4nm are $16000 to $20000.

After the merger of AMD and Xilinx, both TSMC customers, their data center platform shipments and market share increased, while TSMC's orders did not decline significantly, the sources said.

Sources pointed out that Intel and Nvidia will not be the main drivers of TSMC's revenue growth in 2022. Intel 7nm and 5nm process orders contribute less to revenue, while Nvidia RTX30 series inventory is higher, using Samsung 8nm process.

According to sources, Intel's next-generation Meteor Lake processor platform will not be launched until the first quarter of 2024, delaying the adoption of TSMC's 3nm process by American customers. However, according to sources, Intel is reported to be expanding its 7nm and 5nm orders to maintain its relationship with TSMC.

Nvidia's next-generation RTX40 series, which uses TSMC's 5nm process, was scheduled to launch in August, but it has been delayed by at least one quarter and may not even be launched until the first quarter of 2023, according to sources. The source added that TSMC already has other customer orders to make up for the delay, and the two sides have reached an agreement on the order contract.

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