Shulou(Shulou.com)06/02 Report--

(with pictures from Canva)

Recently, the share price of Science and Technology Innovation Board's new shares, Guodun Quantum, rose 924% on its first day of listing. by the morning of July 16, the share price had risen from its initial offering price of 36.18 yuan to 417.28 yuan. And its turnover rate was once as high as 81.56%, which is a well-deserved hot stock in the current stock market.

The crazy rise of Guodun Quantum stock price is mainly due to the consideration of its market position, industry prospect, professional strength and shareholder background, but it does not rule out the situation of blindly following the trend.

What props up high market capitalization?

In terms of market position, Guodun Quantum, founded in 2009, is the first domestic enterprise engaged in the industrialization of quantum communication technology, the first A-share listed company in the field of domestic quantum communication, and the enterprise with the highest market share in the field of domestic quantum communication. it is a well-deserved head enterprise of domestic quantum communication.

From the perspective of the industry, information security is becoming more and more important in personal life. Quantum communication is expected to become the next economic growth point in the world because of its absolute confidentiality.

In terms of professional strength, Guodun Quantum has participated in many major national projects such as "Beijing-Shanghai Trunk Line", "National wide area Quantum secure Communication backbone Network" and "Wuhe Trunk Line". There is no doubt about the strength of the technical team.

In terms of shareholder background, Pan Jianwei, then academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, chief scientist of the quantum communications satellite Mozi, and known as the "father of the quantum," holds 11.01% of the shares of Guodun Quantum and often appears as the spokesman of Guodun Quantum.

Affected by these factors, Guodun Quantum listed on the stock market, immediately aroused the enthusiasm of investors, was quickly speculated the stock price, the market value increased several times.

But the actual situation is that Pan Jianwei did not work in Guodun Quantum and participated in any production, operation, management and technological research and development of the enterprise, and his share voting rights were also entrusted to HKUST Holdings. In Guodun Quantum's prospectus, it is also made clear that "the company's core technology research and development has nothing to do with Pan Jianwei", which is no small impact on shareholders who believe in Pan Jianwei himself.

Moreover, due to the lack of stability, the high price of traditional cryptographic products, the lack of application terminal products and other reasons, the current quantum secure communication technology is difficult to promote in the market, and the revenue is very unstable, which also makes it difficult for Guodun Quantum to support such a high stock price.

Listed turnaround machine

According to Guodun Quantum's prospectus, Guodun Quantum's operating income in 2017, 2018 and 2019 was 284 million yuan, 265 million yuan and 258 million yuan respectively, and the net profit belonging to the company was 74.3146 million yuan, 72.4906 million yuan and 49.3061 million yuan respectively.

This is mainly due to the poor acceptance of Guodun Quantum's core products (working distance and code rate of QKD equipment, quantum secure communication networking capability) in the market, and its contribution to net profit has declined year after year, from 51% in 2016 to 30% in 2019.

In addition to the product crisis, Guodun Quantum is also facing a crisis from customers. At present, the customers of Guodun Quantum are mainly the builders of quantum secure communication backbone networks, metropolitan area networks and system integrators who serve the constructors.

Among them, Digital China is the largest customer of Guodun Quantum for three consecutive years from 2017 to 2019, accounting for 21.14%, 57.90% and 59.52% of the annual revenue respectively, propping up more than half of the revenue of Guodun Quantum. This single customer structure will bring great risks to the operation of the enterprise.

Although the industry prospect and team strength of Guodun Quantum are solid, it takes a certain cycle for quantum communication related products to be accepted from the market to the popularization and application of various industries, units and individuals.

The excessively long marketing time has also brought a lot of unknown risks to the operation of Guodun Quantum. It is a good way for Guodun Quantum to take a turn for the better by virtue of its existing advantages to attract financing.

For investors, Guodun Quantum's nearly 10-fold increase after the listing allowed the betting investors to earn up to 180000, making it the most profitable new stock in the history of A-shares. Although the stock price of Guodun Quantum fluctuates greatly at present, and there are certain risks in buying, it is also a good opportunity for speculation.

In addition to the impact on the stock market, Guodun Quantum's products and industries are actually worth exploring.

The Future Prospect of Quantum Communication

In recent years, many merchants have launched quantum health cups, quantum leggings, quantum insoles and other products that carry out false publicity under the banner of quantum, deceiving consumers.

But in fact, the research of quantum technology has very strict requirements on the experimental environment and related technical conditions, which can not be achieved by ordinary private enterprises at all. And at present, quantum research is mainly focused on the fields of quantum communication, quantum computing and quantum precision measurement, and has not entered the stage of civil application, so almost all the products with "quantum + life" are scams.

Because quantum technology is indeed far away from our daily life, many people have doubts about quantum communication technology, whether it can achieve absolute secrecy in theory.

Theoretically, the first quantum communication protocol, BB84 protocol, provides an unbreakable key distribution scheme based on quantum entanglement principle, quantum non-cloning principle and wave function collapse principle, and its security is beyond doubt. And related products have been launched and applied to the field of national construction and finance.

In the catalogue of the first batch of new infrastructure technology products and services officially released in Anhui Province, a number of technology products of Guodun Quantum were selected as 5G, data center, Internet of things and other projects. For example, Guodun Quantum "5G Security access Terminal products based on Quantum key" and "5G Security access capability platform based on Quantum key" were selected as 5G projects. The completion of 5G in the future will create a favorable environment for the development and application of quantum communication.

In addition, in February this year, Guodun Quantum joined hands with Anhui Telecom to build "Tianyi National Shield Quantum Cloud" in Suzhou, using quantum security technology as a means of cloud security protection, combining quantum security technology and cloud security protection technology to achieve quantum security protection in cloud-to-cloud, cloud-to-cloud and other scenarios.

Generally speaking, the quantum communication industry has high technical barriers, and almost all the life-related quantum products on the market are deceptive. The quantum communication research in question is established in theory, and some products have been put into application, but there is still a certain distance from life, and the realization of quantum technology needs a longer time.

And Guodun Quantum's current stock market changes from a short-term point of view, Guodun Quantum's performance and revenue now rely too much on the government and major customers, the current market promotion is difficult, and today's high stock price is only falsely high. However, in the long run, quantum communication does have a broad development prospect, but it will take some time until it can be widely commercialized.

Although the technology of Guodun Quantum is at the front end of the industry, it is restricted by the general environment, the scope of application of the current products is limited, resulting in a revenue crisis. Today's listing can not only bring financing for it, but also enable more people to understand the quantum communications industry, which is helpful to the maintenance of its operation and the later development of the whole industry.

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