Shulou(Shulou.com)06/02 Report--

On Feb. 6, 2018, a cherry-red Tesla sports car took a SpaceX heavy rocket into space. Inside the sports car sat a simulated astronaut named Starman, with Don't panic written on the screen, a towel and a Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, and David Bowie's Space Oddity in the stereo.

This is an advertisement, but also a tribute, this company named after the physicist, seems to have another layer of romance.

The car, which is farther away from the earth, and the man who did it for fun, Elon Musk, seemed to herald the soaring potential of a company backed by the IT model and technology. Although in Buffett's eyes, the competition in the auto industry is still treacherous, the final winner is still unknown. But in the first two months of this year, Tesla advanced by leaps and bounds amid doubts, and the stock curve held its head high like a cobra, stimulating eyeballs and investment nerves.

On the 21st, Tesla's closing price once again exceeded 900US dollars, with a market capitalization of 163.3 billion US dollars, the momentum is not strong. The question of "can Tesla become the next apple" makes people feel as if the iPhone4 miracle of 2008 can be repeated in the hands of Tesla.

New opportunities under battery innovation

After the acquisition of Maxwell at a premium, Tesla recently proposed to sign an agreement with the "subject of gossip" Ningde era. Ningde Times seems to be the third power battery supplier after Panasonic and LG, which will also be Tesla's first use of lithium iron phosphate batteries.

As the core part of new energy vehicles, batteries are related to the life and death of electric vehicles. Tesla also stressed that the most important thing in the future is to save battery costs. Therefore, Tesla's "Battery Day" shareholders' meeting in April is bound to "stir up waves with one stone" and trigger a new round of reshuffle in battery selection.

As Musk himself said at a press conference after the results: "if you move the battery from one car to another instead of increasing the capacity of the battery, it's not really boosting sales because you don't produce a real electric car." From this, it is not difficult to see that battery innovation is the main focus of Tesla, and it may also be the "tipping point" of some new energy industries.

Perhaps, Tesla favors lithium iron phosphate batteries, which will bring a new spring to the industry. There is no doubt that Tesla chose the Ningde era out of the need to reduce the cost of batteries and electric vehicles, and this move also pushed the price of lithium iron phosphate batteries close to parity. It provides more opportunities for small and medium-sized new energy vehicle companies to increase their market share.

At a time when new energy has become a hot topic, with the support of local public transport energy reform, more opportunities are placed in front of phosphoric acid railway battery and related materials enterprises, including Ningde era, BYD, Penghui Energy and many other enterprises, domestic new energy vehicles and related markets are expected to gradually improve.

Tesla not only gains lower costs, but also occupies most of the market share of the Chinese market. It is not surprising that Tesla, who has taken the lead in this opportunity, has developed so fast in China.

China's growing new market

According to Tesla's official financial report of 2019, the company's operating revenue in 2019 was 24.778 billion US dollars. Of this total, revenue from the automotive business was $23.047 billion, while revenue from the Chinese market was $2.979 billion, or about 20.8 billion yuan, an increase of 69.55% compared with 2018.

According to the financial report, the operating income of the Chinese market is US $2.979 billion, accounting for 12.12%, second only to the US market, and is Tesla's second largest consumer market in the world. With $12.653 billion in revenue in the US home market, accounting for 51.48 per cent, it is still the largest market, but down 15 per cent from the same period in 2018.

The commissioning of Tesla's Shanghai super factory also stimulated the outbreak of Tesla's concept and output. The new battery cooperation has promoted the full localization of Tesla, and the cost of the new model model 3 is expected to continue to fall. The announcement pointed out that the cost of model 3 produced by the Shanghai super factory will be lower than that of the Fremont plant.

Although the domestic market was affected by the novel coronavirus epidemic, the opening and resumption of production of the Shanghai superfactory on February 10 suggested that Tesla was not afraid of the market turmoil caused by the epidemic. Sun Xiaohe, Tesla epidemic prevention liaison and director of the New Industry and Science and Technology Innovation Department of the Lingang New area Management Committee, said that the super factory is expected to achieve a capacity of about 12000 vehicles per month. Not only that, Sun Xiaohe also said that the output of the Shanghai factory will gradually increase, and this year's output is bound to be an upward trend.

The announcement also pointed out that the plant already has an annual production capacity of 150000 vehicles and has begun construction of the second phase of the project to produce Tesla's MODEL Y model, increasing capacity on a scale at least the same as that of the first phase of the project. With the resumption of production in Shanghai, the production problem that has plagued Tesla for a long time has been solved, and it has really become a car company that can continue to make money.

Driven by full localization, the domestic price of model 3 is also expected to fall again. After the pneumonia epidemic, under the influence of such a long "gloomy period", many consumers will change their mindset, and the idea of "working hard to earn money while neglecting the quality of life and health" will also emerge. Compared with the rise in consumer desire after SARS in 2003, a new turnaround in the consumer market is expected after the epidemic. Will the price reduction of model 3 also provide consumers with new choices?

Under the spring breeze of model 3, it is not just Tesla who has benefited.

The New Spring of Industrial supply chain

With the release of model 3 production capacity, the relevant domestic parts driven by it will also usher in the spring. Tesla's industrial chain covers a wide range, and many companies at home and abroad have become its suppliers. Tesla's rapid development provides growth opportunities for domestic listed companies entering its supply chain.

Among them, the power battery, as the core part, is the biggest beneficiary. In the Ningde era, Tesla's third battery partner rose against the current and rose sharply in the depressed A-share market, rising as much as 9.89%. By the close, it was up 3.67% at 135.36 yuan per share, making it the "brightest star" among the 3200 stocks that fell by the limit.

Suppliers in other related fields, such as automotive electronics and thermal management, will also usher in new growth. In the thermal management system, domestic companies, Sanhua Intelligent Control supplies Tesla with thermal management products such as expansion valves, water-cooled plates and so on. In the part of automotive electronics, among the domestic listed companies, Junsheng Electronics mainly supplies human-computer interaction products HMI, Siwei Tuxin is the exclusive navigation map supplier for Tesla, and Changxin Technology supplies central control screen module products.

According to Oriental Fortune Choice database, there are 81 Tesla concept shares in the A-share market, of which Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai have 22, 15, 10 and 5 related listed companies respectively. Of the 81 Tesla concept stocks, 60 listed companies belong to private enterprises, accounting for more than 70%.

From the one-day stock market on February 17, it is not difficult to see that Tesla's related concept stocks, Haida shares rose in a straight line, Shengli Precision touched the limit board, and Xiuqiang shares recorded ten consecutive boards. This report card is already eye-catching.

In 2019, Tesla delivered a total of about 367500 vehicles, an increase of 50% over the previous year, barely meeting the annual sales target. However, Tesla's outlook for the New year is very optimistic. Sales for the whole year of 2020 are expected to easily exceed 500000, equivalent to an increase of 36% over last year's sales.

Tesla used to be famous for "burning money", but now with the gradual release of production capacity, the company says that the future cash flow will be positive and there will be no shortage of funds. Tesla also said in the financial statement: "Tesla has been able to rely on their own funds to maintain, the further growth of sales, the improvement of production capacity and the continued generation of cash flow is our focus in the future."

But will Tesla be content with a single auto industry?

New Development under the Wave of Intelligence

Tesla is more like a technology company than traditional car companies such as Ford and GM.

"the era of traditional carmakers is over." Volkswagen Group CEO Dis said at an executive strategy meeting that Volkswagen was regarded as an automobile company, while Tesla was regarded as a technology company. "cars will be the most important mobile devices, we are also evaluated as an auto company, and Tesla is already a technology company."

As a bold innovator, this leading enterprise of new energy vehicles is really different from traditional automobile enterprises. Specialized product operation, so far only launched a few products such as model X/model Y/model S/model 3, focusing on high-end products, shaping the industrial system.

Of course, Tesla is not only satisfied with the automobile industry, solar panels, charging pile network, software service ecology and other aspects will also become an important source of income for Tesla. As far as the software system is concerned, the continuous upgrading of the car-machine system and mode of operation is trying to create a more intelligent product.

2020 is the first year of 5G, under the global irresistible wave of intelligence, the giant wheel of the times is slowly moving forward. The Internet of everything, smart life, and self-driving are booming, and Tesla's homeopathy also shows that it is not only an automobile company, but also more like what the bulls say, "technology companies are Tesla's peers."

The old problems under the rapid development

Tesla ranked 48th in the 2019 Fortune 50 list released on October 23, 2019.

In January, 2020, Tesla ranked 147th on the list of the world's top 500th brands.

The ranking of the two groups is not difficult to see that Tesla has a rapid development momentum. Behind this rapid development, the problem that gradually appears is the problem that all car companies will face-the recall crisis.

According to Consumer report, according to information learned from the State Administration of Market Supervision and Administration, Tesla Automobile (Beijing) Co., Ltd. has decided to recall some imported model X series cars produced between April 15 and December 16, 2016, totaling 3183. Earlier, Tesla recalled more than 14000 model S cars in China because of potential injuries caused by Takata airbags in January 2019.

When some vehicles within the scope of this recall are exposed to high corrosion environment such as strong deicing salt for a long time, the bolts that fix the steering motor on the steering gear housing may be corroded and broken, resulting in the displacement of the steering motor and the skidding of the transmission belt, resulting in the weakening or loss of steering power, which may increase the risk of vehicle collision and exist safety risks.

In addition, some owners reported that model X 2016 cars have problems such as brake system failure and brake failure that affect driving safety, and model S models also have the problem of liquid leakage in the central control screen. For these problems, Tesla did not implement the corresponding recall action.

This will inevitably chill some consumers. If the safety performance of the car can not be guaranteed, it is not necessary to continue to choose this brand. Compared with Toyota's previous recall, its crisis public relations awareness is really worth learning from Tesla. After all, word-of-mouth for Tesla, is absolutely the most important condition to protect its sales.

After these recalls, Tesla should also reflect on himself. Although the quality of products is difficult to achieve 100% guarantee, but the attitude of Excelsior is 100% needed, continuous improvement and upgrading again and again in order to ensure the sustainable development of the enterprise in the future.

There is no doubt that it is important that Tesla wants to continue today's "miracle".

Can the career of Tesla, who sent the sports car into space, be covered with "speeding tickets" and rush all the way to the unknown like that sports car?

(official account of Liu Kuang / tr. by Phil Newell) ID:liukuang110

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