Shulou(Shulou.com)06/01 Report--

On August 15th, Ali released its latest quarterly results (April to June 2019). According to the financial report, the number of monthly active users of Mobile Amoy has increased by 34 million, of which more than 70% of the new users come from third-and fourth-tier cities and rural markets. This means that Taobao has attracted more than 24 million new users of the sinking market.

The number of new users has exceeded that of pinduoduo in the previous quarter. According to pinduoduo's financial report in the first quarter of this year, it achieved only 17 million month-on-month growth in monthly active users despite slowing growth, compared with 42 million in the fourth quarter of 2018.

So from the current data, hand Amoy in the sinking market user growth, to a certain extent, has been equivalent to the growth of the whole platform of pinduoduo.

Pinduoduo's "low price attribute" is not very sensitive.

Pinduoduo is about to release financial results, but regardless of the performance of the financial data for this quarter, based on the fact that the number of new users in the sinking market has been the same as that of pinduoduo, or even more than Pandou, we can be sure of one judgment. Pinduoduo can't break away from the most basic law of the development of e-commerce.

Although pinduoduo has long asserted that he is a "new e-commerce", but in essence, pinduoduo is still unable to escape the traditional e-commerce business model, let alone independent of the law of e-commerce development. In other words, in the fierce competitive atmosphere, the attribute of "new e-commerce" can not bring an ideal bonus to pinduoduo. Pinduoduo still needs to act in accordance with the old rules and live under the survival rules of e-commerce.

Data and facts have shown that from the sinking market to the industrial chain, from marketing to technology, pinduoduo has been strongly hit by the Ali system in many dimensions. Under the law of the development of e-commerce, pinduoduo can not escape the encirclement of Ali, and the attribute of "new e-commerce" is becoming less and less sensitive.

As we all know, pinduoduo started at a low price, fast food, low-cost models such as "no commission" and "one-click opening", as well as relatively loose platform regulation, have successfully attracted a large number of businesses with low-price labels to settle on the platform.

Although this helped pinduoduo accumulate the first wave of growth dividends, it is difficult for these businesses to provide more ideal value for pinduoduo. Because generally speaking, the revenue ceiling of low-cost merchants is very obvious, which means that the income they contribute to the pinduoduo platform is limited.

However, pinduoduo has been listed, and under the growth pressure of shareholders and investors, pinduoduo needs to give a good explanation to all investors, which means that pinduoduo needs to find new ways to increase revenue, either to open up new channels or to transform traditional channels.

At present, pinduoduo's method of opening up revenue sources has not had much effect. Brand hall accounts for a relatively low proportion of pinduoduo's overall GMV, accounting for 5%, 5.83% and 2.27% in April, May and June this year, respectively, according to UraniumDB, a new economic database of supersymmetric technology, indicating that its sales growth is mainly driven by traditional categories.

This means that the proportion of brand stores on pinduoduo's platform is very low, so the income they can bring to pinduoduo is still very limited, and pinduoduo's dependence on low-end merchants is still very high.

Pinduoduo is losing the advantage of low price.

In the struggle with Ali, the advantage of Puduo's low price is disappearing bit by bit, and the low price can not be called the superior battlefield of pinduoduo. In other words, the low-price strategic advantage that pinduoduo was once proud of is losing its core competitiveness.

In the past period of time, the layout of Ali in the sinking market is omni-directional, and the huge increment of users is only the result of this series of layouts. Ali has also made great efforts to meet the diversified needs of users, and Juzhe is the protagonist.

In 618 this year, the transaction volume of Juhuasu increased by 86% compared with the same period last year. After the comprehensive "revival", the agglomeration has grown rapidly. Through the two dimensions of brand sinking and industrial belt transformation, the efficiency and quality of the commodity supply chain have been improved, and the continuous supply of high quality and high price has been provided for many consumers sinking into the market.

Pinduoduo, on the other hand, once became a favored platform for low-cost goods in the gap of consumption upgrading in Taobi.

But the current situation is not optimistic. Pinduoduo is facing severe challenges in many aspects, and the slowdown in the growth of the platform has become a reality. Under this premise, merchants on the platform, especially those who survive on the platform at low prices, will first be affected by the adverse factors of the decline of traffic dividends, resulting in a decline in income.

That's not the worst-case scenario. With the comprehensive resumption of value for money and the improvement of its strategic advantage, Taos will continue to give more high-quality and low-cost goods more room for survival and development, and the Amoy platform will be more attractive to low-cost, high-quality merchants and users of the sinking market, then the gap in consumption upgrading will gradually disappear, and pinduoduo and the merchants on his platform will continue to bear pressure on this negative environment, making it difficult to find an effective breakthrough.

This means that Juhuashuasu continues to focus on the industrial belt, which will gradually turn pinduoduo's goods into a subset of Taobao.

On the one hand, in the price belt of low-priced goods, there are large-scale and standardized industries with businesses to bid for a lot. For example, in this year's 99 bargaining Festival, Juhuashuashuanhua will launch new digital tools, activate 100000 brand merchants and incubate 100000 digital industry belts. The continuous "star-making" of gathering value for money will continue to establish a business ecology of brand brands in the industrial belt, which is more than more.

On the other hand, the sunken goods of the brand can meet the demand of high performance price, which is even the link that pinduoduo has been missing. Take this year's 618 as an example, Juhuasuan has created hundreds of new brands standing on the high-quality industrial chain through the C2M model, and makes them have great commercial potential. The high performance-to-price ratio of value-for-money goods comes from the high-quality industrial chain and efficient C2M model, which is unmatched by pinduoduo.

Pinduoduo has become a subset of Taobao.

Goods to become a subset of Taobao is not pinduoduo's biggest hidden worry, pinduoduo also has a bigger worry, that is, users have also become a subset of Taobao. The scary thing is that this idea is really happening between Taobao and pinduoduo.

Hand Amoy has been in the sinking market to obtain a very considerable user increment, in addition to the new exclusive users, there are also more and more users from Pinduoduo. A very obvious trend is that more and more users install manual Amoy, which has been proved by surveys by several authoritative data institutions.

Research released by Aurora big data on June 20 shows that Taobao maintains the highest user monopoly rate in the network, and 80% of pinduoduo users install Taobao at the same time; Analysys International's "sinking Market Consumer online Shopping trend Insight 2019" report released in April shows that 72.4% of pinduoduo's active APP users use Taobao at the same time; previous analysis by SST pointed out that 80.1% of pinduoduo's core users are Taobao users. According to a survey of netizens conducted by DE Thinktank, a digital economic think-tank, 79.8% of pinduoduo's core users are using Taobao.

In other words, at least 70% of pinduoduo's users have installed Taobao, which further proves that pinduoduo has become a subset of Taobao. With the subset of the goods, pinduoduo has completely become a subset of Taobao.

After going public in the United States last year, pinduoduo kept telling the capital market a story over and over again. The story is that pinduoduo is not another Taobao, but a new e-commerce ecology born under the attribute of "new e-commerce", which is completely different from Taobao.

Naturally, the purpose of pinduoduo's storytelling is to set a very high imagination space for himself, so as to convince investors in the capital market to press the precious voting button for pinduoduo.

But the facts made pinduoduo ashamed. Whether in goods or users, pinduoduo has become a subset of Taobao, which means that the growth ceiling of Pinduoduo has been clearly defined and has arrived. As this fact becomes more and more clear, the story told by the capital markets becomes more and more difficult to tell.

Wen / Xin Retail external reference

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