Shulou(Shulou.com)05/31 Report--

Most recently, according to a provincial report in the Electronic Times, Apple should start stocking up in July as it releases a new generation of iPhones in September. However, according to the upstream supply chain, there is no obvious sign of recovery in order visibility until September, which will weaken iPhones sales in the second half of the year.

In the first half of 2019, Apple iPhone sales were poor, resulting in a decline in iPhone supply chain shipments in the first half of 2019. However, the market expects that with the iPhone market sales losses in recent years and the large-scale launch of 5G phones in 2020, the market is generally not optimistic about the replacement demand for the iPhone in 2019, and even the related supply chain sales of new phones in the second half of 2019 are retained.

The report shows that in the third quarter of 2019, iPhone shipments were about 12 million to 14 million units per month, down about 10% from previous years. Monthly shipments were expected to rise to more than 20 million units after iPhone shipments peaked in October. However, due to the depressed market atmosphere, the downstream stock strength is relatively flat, resulting in uncertain order visibility in October.

Apple is expected to ship 75 million iPhones in the second half of 2019. However, the supply chain is pessimistic about the future prospects, and it is estimated that it is difficult to challenge 70 million units. Privately, the supply chain believes Apple's fourth-quarter drop in order demand will repeat itself, and that the monthly peak will be a flash in the pan.

In September, Apple will launch three new models. However, due to the market's widespread belief that the new iPhone is not bright enough, the processor and DRAM specifications will be upgraded in 2019, and the OLED model will be equipped with three lens specifications, including a 10 megapixel front lens and a 14 megapixel rear lens. However, the price will still be the same as in 2018, which may affect the high unit price of the new iPhone in 2019, resulting in insufficient purchase energy.

Although the contribution of the new iPhone in the second half of the year is not as good as in previous years, the market expects 50% of iPhone shipments in 2019 to be LCD version and 50% to be organic light emitting diode version, while the willingness of the consumer market to buy new iPhone declines, resulting in the high-priced version may not be favored by the market, and the promotion of the old version helps support the replacement demand of the original Apple users.

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