Shulou(Shulou.com)06/02 Report--

Every IoT company in the world, whether it's a giant platform company, a traditional vendor, or a small startup, will publish predictions about the market for years to come. McKinsey says the economic impact of IoT will reach $11 trillion by 2025. IDC estimates that total IoT spending will reach $1.2 trillion by 2022. Gartner predicts that the number of connected devices worldwide will reach 20.4 billion by 2020.

Predicting the direction of the overall IoT market can be difficult, mainly because there is no agreement on precise definitions of the market boundaries. As a result, the large numbers used to describe "the size of the IoT market" often measure different aspects of it. Alan Griffiths, Cambashi's chief adviser, said: "Everyone knows this is going to be a big deal. "It seems to me that nobody knows how big it is. "He talks to top tech people (CIOs and CTOs) to get his estimates of the IoT market to better understand who's buying what.

Griffiths 'research into the IoT market highlights another important point: IoT trend forecasts are focused on more specific market segments or specific technologies, which tend to be more digestible. The relevant details needed to create such an analysis are easier to obtain and make guesses seem harder to present. But according to Christian Renaud, vice president of 451 Research, different analysts still have different approaches. Many analysts base their estimates on their familiarity with the supplier community-simply knowing that a large percentage of companies in a particular segment are not interested in buying Product X can be a powerful forecasting tool.

"In our case, we do a lot of consulting projects for different clients over the course of a year, we have our own joint data, we do surveys of customers like adoption plans, and in general, this will form a comprehensive opinion. "said Reynaud. While vendor forecasts occasionally overestimate market size, vendors generally tend to research in order to make themselves look better in more subtle ways. Phrase survey questions that make it possible for respondents to answer these questions in specific ways, carefully choosing the parameters for a given prediction "IoT gateway market with this particular combination of connectivity options will rise 300% a year!

The accuracy of long-term predictions often varies greatly from method to method. Simply measuring CAGR for a given technology can give a quick rough estimate based on current trends, but this usually does not tell the whole story. Market trends change frequently, and based on a deeper understanding of a particular market, a deeper understanding of the direction in which changes are likely to occur usually allows better estimates of future data.

Of course, some of these are simple common sense, including well-described and methodologically rigorous studies, studies that use authoritative data (whether unbiased surveys, data from widely accepted demographic sources such as the World Bank or the United Nations, etc.) and those that are not conducted at the vendor's request are more accurate. For people to take a given assessment seriously, defining the terms of the assessment is a crucial step, which is why assessments of the IoT market as a whole (whose boundaries are fuzzy at best) should generally be skeptical.

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