Shulou(Shulou.com)06/02 Report--

Cisco's annual Internet report survey shows that the Internet of things, a large number of new Internet users, video surveillance, and the IP WAN can drive traffic growth. Cisco predicts that IP traffic will grow by 4.8 gigabytes per year by 2020. This will be more than triple that of 2017, mainly due to the increase in the number of Internet of things device traffic, video and new users.

The company also said it would have 4.8 billion Internet users by 2022, up from 3.4 billion in 2017. These forecasts come from Cisco's Visual Network Index (VNI), which excludes actual network traffic reports and independent analyst forecasts from Internet reports.

Cisco says more than 4.7 gigabytes of IP traffic has been shuttling through the network since 1984, but this is only a hint of what is about to happen. By 2022, global inter-network IP traffic will exceed the sum of all "Internet years" by the end of 2016. In other words, traffic in 2022 will exceed all the traffic in the 32 years since the birth of the Internet.

A more compelling fact of the new VNI is the explosive growth of machine-to-machine (M2M) and Internet of things (IoT) traffic. For example, M2M modules accounted for 3.1% of IP traffic in 2017, but will account for 6.4% of IP traffic by 2022, said Thomas Barnett, leader of Cisco service providers. By 2022, M2M connections will account for 51% of all Internet devices and connections.

A large number of applications in the fields of intelligent electric meter, video, medical surveillance and intelligent car communication will continue to contribute to the significant growth of traffic. This means that customers and service providers need to protect and manage M2M traffic in new and better ways, Barnett said.

There are also some very interesting numbers in the software-defined wide area network (SD-WAN) and the entire IP WAN area. For example, Cisco VNI says globally:

SD-WAN traffic accounted for 9% of business IP WAN traffic in 2017 and will account for 29% of business IP WAN traffic by 2022.

From 2017 to 2022, SD-WAN traffic will grow fivefold, with a compound annual growth rate of 37 per cent.

Commercial IP WAN traffic will double from 2017 to 2022, with a compound annual growth rate of 9%. By 2022, IP WAN traffic will reach 5.3 billion gigabytes per month, equivalent to 1 billion DVD per month, or 2 million DVD per hour.

In 2017, commercial IP WAN traffic was 3.6 billion gigabytes per month, equivalent to 889 million DVD per month, or 1 million DVD per hour.

Commercial IP WAN traffic grew by 17% in 2017, accounting for 3% of total IP traffic in 2017 and will account for 1% of total IP traffic by 2022.

Commercial IP WAN traffic accounted for 16% of business IP traffic in 2017 and will account for 8% of business IP traffic by 2022.

Although the growth of devices and traffic is very significant, the speed of the network that drives most of the growth is also increasing.

"the increase in broadband speed will increase the consumption and use of high-bandwidth content and applications. The global average broadband speed continues to grow and will double from 2017 to 2022, from 39.0 Mbps to 75.4 Mbps," Cisco said.

Globally, the average connection speed of mobile networks in 2017 was 8.7 Mbps. By 2022, the average rate will more than triple to 28.5 Mbps.

"A key factor driving mobile speed growth during the forecast period is the increasing proportion of fourth-generation (4G) mobile connections. 4G connections have a significant impact on traffic because 4G connections, including mobile WiMAX and long-term evolution (LTE), generate disproportionate mobile data traffic," Cisco said.

According to Cisco, the average Wi-Fi network connection speed (24.4 Mbps in 2017) will exceed 54.2 Mbps by 2022. By 2022, the Wi-Fi rate in North America will reach 83.8 Mbps.

Other predictions from VNI:

By 2022, there will be nearly 18.3 billion IPv6-enabled fixed and mobile devices worldwide, with a CAGR of 26%, up from nearly 6 billion in 2017. Proportionally, 64 per cent of fixed and mobile network devices will support IPv6 by 2022, up from 32 per cent in 2017.

Looking ahead to 2022, if 60% of IPv6-enabled devices are actively connected to the IPv6 network, global IPv6 traffic is expected to reach 132 EB per month, accounting for 38% of total Internet traffic.

Real-time Internet video has the potential to generate a lot of traffic because it replaces traditional broadcast viewing time. Real-time video already accounts for 5% of Internet video traffic and will increase 15-fold to 17% by 2022.

Video surveillance traffic is booming, uploading from homes and small businesses to the cloud. It currently accounts for 2% of Internet video traffic and will increase sevenfold to 3% by 2022. If video surveillance is used, it will generate more traffic because Internet-enabled cameras can generate traffic up to 300GB.

By 2022, global PC will account for 4 per cent (1.2 billion) of all network devices, compared with 8 per cent (1.4 billion) in 2017 (with a CAGR of-2.5 per cent). By 2022, tablets will account for 3 per cent (790.2 million) of all connected devices, compared with 3 per cent (615.6 million) in 2017 (a compound annual growth rate of 5.1 per cent). By 2022, smartphones will account for 24% (6.7 billion) of all network devices, compared with 24% (4.3 billion) in 2017 (with a CAGR of 9.2%).

Welcome to subscribe "Shulou Technology Information " to get latest news, interesting things and hot topics in the IT industry, and controls the hottest and latest Internet news, technology news and IT industry trends.